Distorting Harvest data

[vvalk]

Though I think corn disappearance sucks

[HappyFarmer]

You are right vvalk. Bean exports are current
about 26 percent shipped and about 70 percent
shipped and sold for the year. Really strong.
Thing is though more than likely the 26 percent
that has been shipped was cheap stuff purchased
last winter. The problem is that the other roughly
45 that is sold but not shipped is very high priced
and a lot of it will be cancelled.. Remember that a
export contact is not like a contract you or I do at
the elevator. Most farmer honor 99.9 percent of
the grain we contact. To these f--kin overseas
buyers, it's just a piece of paper that's says a
price an if they feel like it, they will take it. And we
are already seeing signs of it the last 3 weeks and
will continue.

Also take into account the world stock to use will
end up being higher than it was at the end of this
year. So ever though n.a. Is short bean, the world
actually will have more at its disposal.

Exports and crush for canola are both extremely
good thus far, though exports are going to slow
down in the new year. But remember canola has
still held up a lot better than beans have and
probably will carry a premium to the all year.
Canola crush margins have taken a big hit and
they wont continue to crush if its not profiable.
Canola will always be the ugly sister to beans will
have take go down with it, all be it not to the same
degree

Demand ultimately will be determined be the
financial heath of the world, and I think we all
know how that is. Crude is going to tank and thus
take our major commodities with it. It's just a sad
fact, but its still a fact.

Sorry for the rant but my basis is not on what
supply and demand has been thus far, its about
what demand will be going forward. The highs are
behind us.

Just my opinion.
Probably will be wrong.

[bucket]

When Russia and the ukraine impose export bans and the US realizes how much wheat has been fed because they can't find this 10bbu corn crop, the markets will move up.


Look, the USDA has set the bpa on corn, beans and wheat but the harvested acres are still an unknown publicly. If they reduce acres and increase yield then they are manipulating the markets.

They can get away with it as long as there is an early harvest next year and they can borrow bushels again. But if a normal crop comes in and harvest starts later, things could get interesting.

[malleefarmer]

harvest data australia my gut feel is
australian crop should come in at current
usda estimates even more seems crop are
yielding slightly better than expected
but quality may become a issue if much
more rain falls in wa and eastern
australia

[burnt]

After what happened here in Ontario, all bets are off. We had almost no rain from early May until late August, decimating the hay crop badly.

But yet we pulled off astonishing, record yields in both soybean and corn crops. Soys routinely ran 50 -60 bushels/ac. and corn ran from 165 - 225 bu/ac.

So if the same thing happened in parts of the corn belt, they could find significantly more bushels before next spring.

I don't know what they will find, but just saying that if it happened here on our relatively insignificant acreage, it could also be the case in the US where a few bushels per acre would actually make a major difference.

The demand side has obviously been dealt with already by high prices. I am not bullish, so I can't be disappointed!

It's O.K. to hold for more money, but would prudence not suggest that a good chunk of the crop should have been priced at the very profitable levels we saw around harvest time?

[bucket]

The cwb supporters always told me the grain companies steal the grain at harvest because farmers need money.

The last two years, if you consider time value and risk of storing, harvest was the best time to sell.

If it is as dry as they say in the states, maybe the real problems in production show up next year.