Information I Follow

[charliep]

Information I follow every week in addition to price charts.

<a href="http://www.copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYOCTOBER242012.pdf">COPA Oct 24</a>

<a href="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2012-13/week-semaine-12/gsw-shg-01-eng.htm">GSW Week 21</a>

Numbers would indicate things are moving along quite well with visible stocks less than a year ago and deliveries, exports and domestic disappearance will ahead of last years pace. No major problems that I can see.

Any congestion at local or other factors impacting your ability to deliver?

[errolanderson]

Charlie . . . we follow the open interest
closely as that can give us a 'heads up'
if funds are entering or exiting long or
short positions en-mass. To us, open
interest is the gas pedal of markets.

[btjadenlepp]

From what we see only the Peace is backed
up (but what else is new); other areas
calling in contracts well ahead of the
delivery window.

www.farmlinksolutions.ca

[cottonpicken]

So what is your current opinion of the open interest in
the soybean complex?

[Kodiak]

Open interest is a factor. Of course is always nice to see high prices and the funds not yet loaded up. Declining open interest in a relatively high market is not good news for prices, but this is a relatively short term indicator.

What I watch most closely are the spreads. Spreads are an indication of commercial demand, and the spreads between the more distant months indicates how long to expect prices to rise, level out, or fall. Funds can come and go multiple times in a bull market or a bear market, and to me open interest can be just so much noise. Spreads - that's where the real story is revealed. IMHO

[crusher]

With respect to canola: crush up 20%, exports flat, production down 5%. Cargill building a new plant, Bunge big expansion. Crush margins might be tighter than usual, talking heads keep bringing it up, so what. Bunge announces huge profits.

Maybe potash corp could learn something from them.

I'll stay bullish for now. About 40% sold.

[errolanderson]

Kodiak . . . good point on spreads.

open interest is useful when markets are either straining excessively higher or lower. but you are right that spreads are a good indicator especially as most professional traders are spread traders.