Market Open After Today's USDA Report

[charliep]

Market action over the next few days should be watched carefully. Issues at play.

1) Charts that are starting to show some technically weak. Some may disagree but not headed higher to the same degree.

2) A USDA report that basically came in where the trade expected it realizing they used the March seeding intentions report acreage. No surprises equals ______?

3) US spring seeded crops that are going into the ground in good conditions for most part. US winter wheat in much better condition than in previous years.

Others thoughts.

[charliep]

Only one that watches markets but sometimes they can be humbling. Interes the pop in oilseed prices this am. I have to admit to being curious at different points to US crop rotations and things that drive the corn soybean decision. Picking on January 12, Nov. soybean futures were $11.60/bu and Dec. corn $5.60/bu or a ratio of 2.1. Today, Nov. soybeans $13.50/bu ish and corn $5/bu ish or a ratio of 2.7. Will be curious to see what actual acres are both on double cropped land in the S.E. US and the midwest.

[charliep]

To put above into a Canadian context, MGEX Dec. wheat was about $8/bu or about $295/tonne (no currency adjustment) versus Nov. canola at $500/tonne - ratio 1.7. Today, MGEX December wheat at $7.40/bu ($270/tonne) versus Nov. canola at $575/tonne or a ratio of 2.1.

[ColevilleH2S]

Some of the widening of the Corn/Bean ratio is because a goodly number of Corn belt farmers (as I understand it) spread their fertilizer months before planting season, thereby locking in that acreage to Corn.

In a world of fast moving markets that practice will have to change.