buying fert now, not!

[just_wondering]

fully agree with everyones comments on the kids. they are the reason for everything I do. I have three 6-4-2

As for Fertilizer It sucks but farming as much about risk management in inputs, as marketing. I can see prices going higher as poorer countries subsidize production to avoid food riots and encourage their own food security.
IMO

[cottonpicken]

Well you guys either:

a-dont actually farm
b-dont have a crop
c-dont do well at math

If its not one of those three you dont have a right to bitch.

As gross returns per acre rise so will net returns.

Do you think oil companies want to return to 27 bucks?

[almoy]

You are not necessarily right cottonpicken. If the inputs rise too much the net income could end up lower !!

[dfarms11]

well cotton, I pray that you are correct. My fert costs $100, chem $40, seed $30 ins $20, equip over $60and land at least at $40. Now they are predicting $8 wheat at 30bu, please tell me again that I shouldn't be worried!

[furrowtickler]

It all looks fine on paper there cotton, but a lower than average crop or a hail storm, and or frost event will turn your big gross numbers into an ugly net reutrn. All the above are a reality at this point in the season. My point is that if I dump $150,000 now into fert for next year and I end up with a big freeze(50/50), that leaves me and many others without any cash to support the family. I will take my chances and buy fert once the crop is in the bin, it may cost 10-15% more but at least I will not leave my kids hanging while the local guy at the fert plant goes to disney land on my money. I am willing to share as long as I make money first.

[SASKFARMER3]

I for one have been too to many farms that had all their inputs in the shed but had no cash to get to next year so they thought they could delay payments and not pay fuel etc and taxes. Good slick talking fert and chem dealers that are told from head office we need to move product because were going to increase prices. Guys family is more important than any farm. If we all told them to go to HE-- their would be change but as long as Joe sleepy farmer falls for the hype they have control, its the same with money if farmers ever get to a point of not needing any operating money watch and see who will be in control. its all about control and most don't get that

[BreadWinner]

I also have an obligation to keep a roof over my kids heads not to mention clothes, food and all the extras. I think we are all being carried away with all the excitment of todays markets. A basic rule to remember is "what goes up always comes down". We are all a hailstorm or a early frost away from a scary reallity. If I had prebought my fertilizer now, ordered a new tractor, traded off the sprayer, got a different combine, put up new bins, bought a new boat and camper, booked the winter holiday, you would thing I was planning for a big end to my farming career. I thing we have all been without a paycheque so long we dont know how to spend it fast enough. I think we all better start letting the fertilizer, chemical, and machinery companies know that the crop is not in the bin yet and the money is not in the bank.

[just_wondering]

I think the point vvalk was trying to make and I agree is buy now, or don't the market doesnt care.
You may or may not have a crop somebody does and is paying that price and you have to match it or wait till you can pay for it
price will either go up or down.
futures price of natural gas has almost no relationship to the price we pay !
repeat
futures price of natural gas has almost no relationship to the price we pay !
They will charge the most the market will bear or ship it somewhere else, it's their duty too shareholders.
I know we have duties to our families but again, nobody is trying to feed your family but you and yours.
What we need in fertilizer is extra capacity and open free markets so that we to can tell companies that business can go elsewhere.

[SASKFARMER3]

OK ill bite, then why did fert go through the roof when katrina hit natural gas and we were told that's why its going though the roof now its not related.
Come on BS is BS you just don't get it.

[vvalk]

Saskfarmer. You are right that gas does make a difference when demand was lower and of course gas is the biggest component to manufactor fertilizer. But when demand outstrips supply then the price of gas will not have a bearing on fert prices. Right now all your betting on is that demand will ease. That is the question? Not trying to be hard about this but the world's demand for fert doesn't care about your guy's families. It will be harder to feed them this spring when fert is up 30%. It may be down too. But using emotional arguments will not help you run your business. Never forget your farm is a business.