Mustard,,, Hot Prices...

[vvalk]

I know they have bought in the last month at 60 cents

[Rareearth]

I didn't see the charts.

Time to sell based on charts? Usually there is more to a story than that.
For example:
1 we wive in a global economy now where importers look for the best price, price for quality, timeliness of delivery. The best choice for importers and the lowest price is usually at harvest.
2 who in the world, what countries grow mustard, that competes with Canada?
3 look at the harvest timing, what months do these other countries harvest their crop
4 canada is on of or is the worlds largest exporters ( producer?) for mustard, who else can supply mustard to the worlds importers and processors between now and August when Canada has a crop again?
Argentina?
Turkey?
India?
Australia?
Europe?
5 canada is the next harvest that can fill the shortfall in global production. We are only 6 months into our marketing year. Prices must go much higher to ration supply or substitution needs to take place
6 what can be substituted for mustard?
7 the exporters better send a clear message the importers that this won't be fixed unless Canada has a huge crop (lots of acres) with motivation and incentive is required with very high, extraordinary pricing, record breaking, etc or risk impossible situation next year.
Must have record pricing, new crop contracts to stimulate acres or growers will grow other crops ( lentils)
8 what % of the current Canadian crop is unsold? 6 months left for our crop year
9 what are the grower prices, or competing export offers in other countries for mustard?

We live in a shoe box, we should be asking more questions, price discovery is very important for the determination of value. Basing sales on historic parameters isn't marketing. The above questions are what profesional purchasers with university degrees do every single day. We are supposed to be some of the worlds best producers, and marketers. Great technology, living standards, safe- traceable food, nice people.

I'll stop short, the above is a story, and can't be written in a few lines, or any particular order. The market provides more info every day, where the story changes ( or price or risk) Now your a speculator, hoping for a better price. BUT now you are informed and can make or measure have in hand information for a calculated risk.

I really enjoy the people and thoughts on agriville. Always thought provoking.

[hobbyfrmr]

When we grow a commodity and have inventory, we usually wish the price would go up so we can make profit.
The spot price of mustard looks to be about 42% more than a year ago. I look at these things in a $/hour scenario like a working man.
Last year I was paying myself $12.00/hour. This year I can give myself a raise to $17.00/hour for the same labour efforts, if I sell the mustard today.

[hobbyfrmr]

You can always sell the inventory for less than the spot price if that works better for your operations.

[farmaholic]

Rareearth: I can see what happened historically but can't see into the future. You make good points though.

Substitution, I don't know if there are any viable alternative other than between the classes themselves(yellow, brown and oriental). Depending what they(end user) are doing, I can see them substituting from a cheaper class.

Competition comes from Eastern Europe, they farm on nearly the same latitude as us and obviously in the same hemisphere so there will likely be no, or not much, new supply until 2016 harvest in both continents.

I am in touch with about 4 buyers, one out of the States, one that has connections to Germany and two other exporters. I realize they are just buyers and not end users. But unless I want to export the little bit I grow, now and then, directly to the end users I have to rely on the buyers as the liaison between me and the end user and rely on them(buyers) for my price signals.

I will try not to let greed cloud my judgement. Marketing greed has taught me more than one lesson in my time, it takes a few "lessons" to sink in. "Historically" how many times in the chart has yellow mustard been at 60 cents? Look at the stocks to use chart... signals. I may get a home run with other runners on the bases but it may not be the "bases loaded grand slam"!

I will net more off the quarter section it was grown on than I paid for it in 1997...

[mustardman]

Historically weird but it seems yellow has a high moment Every seven years

[Rareearth]

Pictures (charts) can depict what a 1000 words cant, they are valuable.

Not sure if I could operate on the hourly income basis. Way too many moving parts, grow the wrong crop, in the wrong year and you will be broke, doesn't matter what you need to live. Also easier with bumper crops than drought ( no crop).

Grain future traders have way more losing trades than winning ones. They get out when they are proven wrong or timing is off. But when they are stuck in a trend, they continue to hold and let profits aquimulate, it takes significance of something to change a trend.

Start googling mustard prices in Europe or where ever, subscribe to there grower magazines and newspapers, western producer, etc or start listening to Mallee pulse Australia mustard grows where lentils, wheat and most other semi arid crops grow. You don't have to be a genius to see and here about the drought in southern sask and Alberta this spring, and figure that probably will impact mustard growers, supply and price as well.

I agree exporting is not the farmers business. Maximizing opportunities should be farmers business. Listening to a exporter tell you we are at historic highs and this is a good price isn't wrong. Imagin if they need more mustard, what else could they say to have you sell or contract? Every one has to make money, market needs steady supply, we have 6 months left until new crop is available, there is no down side risk, maybe in July there is danger of no sale or price decline. This is how traditional canary seed growers made money, canola growers, today it's lentils, and we have way more information and time than ever before thanks to Internet and market analysts who help figure these things out, with their information networks. Just like the tax thread there are every day analysts then there are experts who work very hard compiling information as to supply demand, weather, total production, demand, politics etc I'm glad they are here to help us.

[GOODRUM]

What was the Canadian dollar at when the mustard was at .60 last time?
Are we getting a fair exchange ?
I can't find any US pricing

[ColevilleH2S]

When Mustard hit 70 cents, the dollar was somewhere in the sixties.

[Rareearth]

What month was that in?