Why is their a $3 inverse in Canola yet Soy is $1?

[SASKFARMER3]

Selling some of that stored today for 646 plus 35 basis is $15.44 vs 13.60 (your 600) last fall. Now the rest will play with till June Basis in hand. Your feeding the Giant, My question is Why let them come for it not give it to them.

[fjlip]

Pioneer is offering -13.43 basis off Nov, is that anything to lock in?

[jdepape]

July/Nov canola is equal to $1.58 over
July/Nov soybeans is $2.06 over

Soybeans have the bigger new crop "discount" to old crop.

What am I missing?

[jdepape]

New crop canola is actually on the high side. The supply side of the balance sheet is a bit tenuous - one of the smallest carry-ins we've ever seen and now seeding problems.

This scenario is showing up already in both new crop basis and spreads. Some new crop basis levels are north of $10 under; Nov/Jan at practically even money and deferred spreads are at inverses.

The market is expecting continued tightness and it shows.

[jdepape]

By the way - when I say a basis is "north of 10 under" I mean higher - like 5 under. As in it gives a higher price.

Basis is a price, not a cost.

[btjadenlepp]

Saw a basis this afternoon at $14/t over
the Jan for new crop. Never been anything
like that before at this time of year!

[jdepape]

There are three things to keep in mind when
looking at new crop basis this year:
1. Extremely tight carry in
2. Iffy crop prospects.
3. No CWB. Means wheat is now a cash crop
and I expect to see more wheat sold for cash flow
leading to higher basis than before.

Best basis for nu crop I've seen is about a buck
under Jan.

Where's the 14 over?

[Hopperbin]

Agree spill the bullshit or the beans what ever it is. Bullshit????