Markets

[jdepape]

Hopper:

First, tell me what an average year is!

Protein premiums are a function of
supply/demand of protein. Last year saw good
production of high protein, and coupled with a
strong feed market, protein premiums were (are)
almost non- existent.

In 2010-11, we saw stronger premiums. At one
point, the premium for 14% over 13% (just on
percent of protein) got to $100/tonne ($2.72/bu)

Here's a chart.
http://www.cwb.ca/why-pool

What protein premiums will be this upcoming year
is anyone's guess. The data I've seen shows
protein premiums to be very volatile and
sometimes very substantial.

[errolanderson]

John . . . good to have you back on Agriville.

agree with your 20% left comment. Ag Canada is out-to-lunch in their 350,000 MT carryout. We believe it will be in the 500 to 600,000 MT neighborhood by crop year end.

Demand for old crop canola may get thin within the next month as exports die off and crushers focus on new crop.

Old crop canola is vulnerable to a late crop year sell-off (IMO). Wheat pricing was a lost opportunity for many.

[mbratrud]

I may be wrong but I would be surprised If there is 20% Canola left on Farm. I still believe carry out is going to be very very squeaky.

[Hopperbin]

Your 10 11 protein spread explains a bit. Typicallly we grow I would say 13.5 average here in our location and last year it was 15.5 plus. So here we would like to possibly store it for a better price in the new crop, stored wheat is looking awesome, but fusarium is an issue, also making it hard to market. Saving it into new crop could give blending possibilities or no fusarium testing as we have never had it so bad before. This year I was able to truck some soft wheat for export wheat trucking paid one hundred miles to the west where they did not care about fusarium cause it was a non issue at that location. As far as wheat I only have another years planting supply left. Canola still at 20 percent left. When I look at bunge's prices they still pay you for holding till June July although not much only 10 cents over may. Last delivery I asked the guy at Bunge if they export any canola and his answer was no they are trucking it all to their crushing plants. They need it and know it I thinking.

[furrowtickler]

I will question 20% canola in bin as well - ADM is a plus $85/tn for April - May. Never in history have I seen that. I know road bans and blah blah blah, but IMO there is less than that, 15% max more like 10%

[LWeber]

Plus 85 is $16.05 a bushel. That is 22 dollars higher
Than I/S vancouver.

[Hopperbin]

I will deliver to nova scotia for that.
Don't have time. LOL

[LWeber]

ADM AGRI - INDUSTRIES CO.

LLOYDMINSTER 23-Apr-13

DELIVERY MONTH FUTURES FUTURES
MONTH CLOSE BASIS
APR '13 RSN '13 $ 622.90 $ 15.00 $14.47
MAY '13 RSN '13 $ 622.90 $ 15.00 $14.47

[LWeber]

Off the November ...Geezus
There is a 69 dollar inverse.

LDC and Bunge have been plus 42 the July.

[Hopperbin]

Cannot immagine anyone selling new crop canola at these levels, does it actually happen? Psychologically we think there is a big canola crop comming and we need to sell or it is profitable according to our own records. Dam it the crushers are tighter than won't say who.