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Marketing for profit is tough

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    #11
    Open Market for wheat went up $1.00/bus. after the CWB removed itself from the market. Ummmm was the price spike because of the drought shorten supply, OR?

    Or could it be because the CWB and the AWB control at least 40% of the worlds export wheat. This large percent of exportable wheat that everyone in the world knows that is there puts a weight on the open market price of wheat. The knowledge that the supply is there, and is being held by state monopoly grain confiscaters who have no financial risk involved in that supply management, would hold the open market price unjustly low due mainly to the guaranted supply factor that the boards have with their buyers.

    If the CWB gets out of the market, buyer will bid up to guarantee supply. Farmers are not good at giving up there supply unless it is confiscated or the price agrees with their risk management.

    The CWB obtains a preminium for 25% of our wheat because of its quality and because of some quality buyers. (Most grain handling companies would pay you a bigger premium for quality because you wouldn't have to share it with a no account neighbor that we all have.) The other 70% is sold on a we wouldn't be under sold aggreements to who ever to gain world market, under agreement to pay some day maybe. The resulting price to the farmer is a below average open market price.

    You would't trust your bank account to your neighbor so why would you trust a bunch of bureaucrats with your wheat?

    Vader you want me to run with a bunch of losers at the CWB level.

    Comment


      #12
      "losers"? My, what an intellectual argument! ;-)

      Comment


        #13
        Flatbroke;

        Losers... that is what all of us are... because we will not take the direct stand of respecting each other.

        I was at the AB. Wildrose annual meeting yesterday... and a farmer was telling me he was afraid to wear a CWB jacket, cause there are such bad feelings in his area over CWB handling over numerous marketing issues...

        This would not happen if we respected each other... and allowed marketing freedom... then a specific choice would not be offensive...

        People in general do not get offended when a neighbour wears a CaseIH jacket or hat, an Agco Jacket... a Westco Jacket... a John Deere Jacket or hat...

        How long must we tear our communities apart over this issue?

        What will it take to move forward towards mutual respect where we will allow ourselves the privelege of marketing choice..., The right to say that the price being offered by the CWB is too low for our grain... especially for the CWB pre-pricing grain that has not even been grown yet...

        Yet myself and my neighbour do not have the choice not to sell at that price that was arbitarily decided by the CWB.

        Even The CWB PPO pricing system puts all wheat and barley back into the Pooling accounts... and cannot be directly connected with the real price the CWB gets cash for any of our grain...

        Flatbroke... why do prices for flax, peas, lentils, mustard, Oats, Canola, Domestic feed barley and feed wheat all outperform the job the CWB has done in marketing today, if you look at cash prices at your marketers are offering?

        Comment


          #14
          Tom- You missed your calling! Cretien would pay big money to have you as a spin doctor. Have another look at kernel's post. My comment stands. I must say, however, this is the longest I've had a post in this forum without one of you making comment on my name in relation to the CWB... or did you just tire of that one?
          Happy new year!

          Comment


            #15
            Flatbroke;

            Which market has tanked the worst in the last month?

            Chairman Ritter told us yesterday in Red Deer that wheat has dropped $2.00/bu.

            And we have a monopoly seller selling our wheat with only 6mmt of CWRS...

            Of which he said that only 20-30% is #1 or #2 grade. THose numbers only work out to 1.5mmt of high quality wheat...

            The CWB was forced to drop the quoted selling price of #1CWRS 13.5 to $270/t, when the don't even have any to begin with to speak of...

            what does this tell any sane person about CWB monopoly single desk marketing power?

            It tells me... there is no additional advantage... and CWB performance is worse than every other sector in the grain industry today for selling 02 crop now!

            Comment


              #16
              Flatbroke;

              Sorry, I forgot, it gets worse...


              Chairman Ritter said that the CWB has completed 45% of the 2002-03 sales program... this means instead that the CWB has less than 800,000 tonnes of high quality wheat to sell between now and next September... WHY has the CWB dropped offer prices by $2.00/bu, can you give me any good reason?

              Comment


                #17
                Flatbroke;

                Sorry but it gets EVEN Worse!

                Jan 08, 2003 (The Asian Wall Street Journal - ABIX via COMTEX) -- The Australian Bureau of Agriculture & Resource Economics (ABARE) announced its most recent wheat forecast on 2 December 2002. ABARE predicted that wheat output for the crop year ending 31 March 2003 would total 10 million tonnes. Due to the ongoing drought in Australia, this figure would represent a significant fall on the 24 million tonnes produced in the previous year.

                However, figures released by a number of grain storage and receival companies since ABARE's forecast suggests that the actual figure could be 8.5 million tonnes or less. ABARE's next wheat forecast is due for release on 18 February 2003. Publication Date: 7 January 2003

                Jan 08, 2003 (The Weekly Times - ABIX via COMTEX) -- Australia's milling grade wheat and pool stocks will be used as feed this year. This means that wheat exports are forecast to fall by 10 million tonnes, to 6.5 million tonnes. Carryover stocks for next season will be low. Rainfall and seasonal conditions in the first six months of 2003 will determine the fluctuations of feed wheat values. Bids of over $A300 per tonne are being received in Victoria's feed barley markets. Although stocks are tight on Australia's eastern seaboard, South and Western Australia have been supplying additional stock. Publication Date: 8 January 2003

                SO FLATBROKE, the CWB basically has no high quality wheat to compete against, the Ausies won't have any more production for a whole year, and but for a small amount of US wheat that Minister Goodale is calling inferior and substandard to what we have, there is none anywhere in the world.

                Can you possibly see why I have a problem with the way the CWB is selling yoours and my wheat... or do you have wheat the CWB is selling this year Flatbroke?

                Comment


                  #18
                  Flatbroke I take it that you are a CWB supporter as you took offence to my intellectual comment.

                  Being a supporter of the board, can you define to me were the preminium price for wheat is that CWB obtains for us. Explain to me in detail how anyone can say that under a pooling concept that a preminium price can be obtained.


                  You have got to beable to show me in figuires not just your imagination or something the wheat board is telling you to be the true. I have shown you with figuires and told you of actual events that prove that a marketing choice will return up to $2.00 more a bus. then what the CWB can do for me. But done feel sorry for me feel sorry for the value added community around us that can't buy the quality of wheat from the CWb that they want for their milling because the wheat board keeps it to fill their quality buyers orders in the export market. Thus their claim to fame of getting a preminium price, where any dam fool could get a preinium.

                  Maybe you can bring me up to your intellectual level of understanding.

                  Comment


                    #19
                    Tom; Actually, my entire wheat crop this year fit in 1 truckload with room to spare.
                    kernel; Am I to assume you always hit the peak of the market with your non-board grains? If so, then good on you! Perhaps you could sell your services to the board, grain companies, or us "losers" that make up the other 98% of growers. My impression is that most anyone could extract a good price for whatever they might have in a disaster year such as this. It seems to me that all the rants I've seen thus far are all with the benefit of hindsight, such as "this was the PRO, and I saw $xyz spot price in Jerkwater yesterday." If you guys can so consistently predict the future, then you are definitely wasting your talents growing wheat! You'd be very rich traders at the WCE.

                    Comment


                      #20
                      flatbroke,

                      Have a look at my posting under "CWB Premiums". Maybe you can answer the question I posed.

                      Comment

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