So at $500 a ton Canola how many acres will We have in 2013!

[hobbyfrmr]

Ok, well then I only loosely agree with Burbert. I dont think of profitablility as greed. I am not yelling about it, I thought I had suggested an alternative, being oats, or other crops that require some legwork as you describe. I still do not anticipate a decrease in seeded acres and stand by that opinion.
I am willing to bet SF3 has already bought the seed to plant soy's retarded cousin canola. I suspect its already in their shed at home!

[charliep]

Just pulling your leg as well. My basic idea is most farmers are good managers and will make good decisions based on analysis of their individual situation.

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

"My basic idea is most farmers are good managers and will make good decisions based on analysis of their individual situation."

If farmers are NOT good managers... they are not farmers for long.

There are ten people each day that want our funds... and if a manager is NOT on top of being productive and efficient... they are toast.

Canola At $500/t... and corn at WHAT SF3?

[wd9]

Charlie, greedy in farming is canola
canola canola wheat canola canola....

[SASKFARMER3]

Tommy Boy $5.50 Corn. What if SA does grow the crop their braging about. Where will Canola. Be
Big drop wont come back till Mid Jan then has one month to climb then SA Stories will start to come out and USDA seeding intentions etc.
Its a short time to recover.
But answer the Question what will acreage be if Canola goes to 500.
Simple question. Dont analyse my farm!
Just answer the question where will canola acreage be in Spring 2013 if we hit 500 ton canola.

[Daylate]

I predict, down 10-15% in Sask.
Manitoba down 15%
Alberta down 0-5%

How many acres is that roughly?

[charliep]

Versus 2012, that would be down about 2 million acres or about 19 million acres. Based on a 33 bu/acre yield, that would production of about 14.25 million tonnes.

[Daylate]

So stiill not bullish. Question is where is milling wheat if canola is at 500. I'm getting nervous about that and thinking about 2013 wheat to lock in. I think wheat will move down, and canola wont have to fight for acres by beginning of Feb.(hopefully we have till then for wheat)Just my rambling thoughts, lol

[bucket]

charliep

What happens if it is 19 million acres next year but the dryness and a normal weather pattern comes to the prairies. Lets use the same BPA as last year.

19 million acres at 28bpa or .635 tpa equals a 12.1MMt crop.

Between you and I we now have a range of production of 12.1 to 14.25. If we split the difference, next years crop runs in at 13MMt.

I heard today that the carryover of canola will be well under 500,000mt by july of 2013.

Anything under 1mmt is said to be bullish for canola prices.

Your thoughts?

[charliep]

None really. Pick your poison based on your assumptions. My only question is can you have 50 cent/lb CBT soybean, a par loonie and $600/tonne plus canola.

If I were to hedge 2013 crop, it wouldn't be because I felt I can forecast. I would locked in new crop because I recognized I can't forcast the future and because canola are historically high, profitable, you need cash flow next fall, short bin space, worried about storability, etc, etc, etc. There are tools in the tool box to reverse this position if the market takes off.

Your business. Your choice.