So at $500 a ton Canola how many acres will We have in 2013!

[SASKFARMER3]

Sask your sitting like us except I liquidated hrs
early for good price priced in July.
But my whole world is I like to shake up things.
So that's why I ask where will canola acres be at
500 ton.
Right now were in holding patern on acreage with
500 acre drop from this year.
Yeas good rotation does help.
Just a very simple question. I think needs to be
asked. Because under the fert latest BS, price is
based on canola price not natural gas is now kind
of BS. Fert should be 20% less than last year.

[bucket]

I don't know, but looking at a 2007 december canola chart we were lower then and then it exploded in January and february 2008.

Not saying it will happen but all the experts say history repeats itself.


If the canola crush industry took a hard look at what is going on, they might want to start looking for buyers of their plants because I am with SF3 on this, sub 12 bucks a bushel makes for severely reduced acres for 2013.

I remember this spring when I needed a few bags of canola and no retailer had any but when I returning totes, there were pallets of returned canola seed. People overbook, the industry reads this as acres seeded and when the seed is returned its not re-counted as reduced acres, just rebagged for next year.

And the industry knows they are short canola already come april-july 2013.

[SASKFARMER3]

2007 at Christmas SA had issues that weren't
been reported farmers down their emailed north
things were bad. This year except for Argentina
not been done seeding brazil is doing ok, little dry
next 10 days but fine.

[bucket]

On a thread below, hopperbin was referring to a report that said the soybean crush in Argentina was coming to a standstill or at the least to interim running because there is a shortage of beans down south.

One would think those orders will be filled first with this giant crop coming out of Brazil.

What puzzles me, is one day we are running low and the next day the world is flush with crops.

On my farm, if the bins are empty on July 1st, they don't get re-filled on July 2nd automatically, physically impossible.

[wd9]

The same acres SF3, ever hear of a little
thing called crop rotation?

[mbratrud]

Spidey senses tingling that again these drops are healthy and only fuel demand. Soybean, Canola export pace way ahead of targets, this does nothing to slow that down. Personally I think it would be healthy to see $500 Canola for awhile. I still think Oilseeds have the potential to be VERY tight by late Spring.

Much talk about Corn falling below $7 per bushel…. Holy shit guys since when does corn have to be above $7 to not be bearish?? I really think Corn needs to go to $5 and that would be a good thing long term. I get the sense from some Market Analysts that we need $7 Corn to have $14 Soybeans Really?? Short Memories I guess.

Now having said I wouldn’t want to be extremely long Canola or Beans but I’m comfortable with 25% left to sell. And I am also feeling satisfied I haven’t expanded my farm at $90 / acre rent.

I guess to sum up what I am trying to say is that if $5 Corn $12 Beans and $500 Canola and $7 Wheat Concern you your too long….. But I also think this book still has a few chapters.

[Partners]

Same rotation, its a long way from the crop being in the bin for 2013..

[TOM4CWB]

WD9,

Buyers are getting a taste of grower freeze on Canola
sales. Basis has lowered on nearby wheat as the prices
drops.

Will be interesting to see what happens after jan 2 as
folks start selling again... but scads of deferred
cheques will be cashed Jan 2... so perhaps it will be a
Nonevent!

[groundspeed]

I call it the christmas blues. This time of year the markets seem to go down then buisness as usual in the new year. Im gonna bet that canola will remain strong this winter as supplies gradually get less. By spring there could be some good rallys especially if weather problems start to happen. Around here there were alot of crappy canola crops, dont think theres alot of it on the farms.

[errolanderson]

SF3 . . . This is a global market.

Harsh reality is; world doesn't much care
about the cost of production in Western
Canada.