Statscan

[farming101]

A good percentage of farmers are quite comfortable gambling with on farm stocks.
They also don't like the idea of margin calls or options premiums. And yes I have a hedging account.
Many times keeping ownership of physical grain has paid handsomely.
More than one way to skin a cat. Just sayin.

[MBgrower]

Farmers lie on surveys, just ask sakfarmer. At least the underestimated number supported prices last year to allow me to sell all my canola north of 11/bu. Thank you to all liars.

[farmaholic]

Tom, do you farm alone? Where do you find the time? That being said, once its learned you only have to do it. I have no experience but lets hear from the guys that do take positions and use options and make margin calls and profits. Are the profits ever substantial? Are the margin calls ever ugly?

Remember what I said before about comparing it to casino loses, seldom anyone ever brags about them but the wins, look out!!!

[farmaholic]

To be clear....it's not like I've never lost (or could have sold my grain for more) money storing grain. Holding grain in the bin is taking a position.

[TOM4CWB]

Farmaholic,

Farm with my family and brother... we jointly (JV) operate two medium size farms together; 100mi apart... move SPsprayer and 1 combine/headers back and forth... share semi trucks as well when needed.

[macdon02]

I have a trading account, live futures platform, I prefer the paper over bins. Here's why.... margin calls and watching the equity in my account diminish gives me cold hard reality that I AM WRONG. Grain buried in a bin is not the same, it's like hope to someone dying, if market is falling. I am 39 years old and I have taken a long position on the next 25ish crops, they are not sold, which means I am speculating they will be worth more then they are TODAY. If I take a paper position and I lose, its no different then selling at a lower price. I want to maximize the cash value on every sale but there are times when it is extremely important to go to a risk off position. I am leveraged more then Id like to be but thats life, I ll get there one day. Too often we, as farmers, think that USDA or Stats Can is wrong, must be on glue, because the numbers dont agree with the position we have taken, often binning or not selling. These outfits suck, but they are the best looking girl at the lepper colony so the trade accepts them, right or wrong, arguing isnt an option as one never wins, admitting ones position is wrong isnt easy but I find the paper hits harder then the physical. There's no right or wrong way to market just find what works for you, and admit when your wrong!!

[macdon02]

PS I sold the day before the it froze this spring because, technically, it was setup for a crash, so I missed the rally

[farming101]

Well said Macdon02.
Bills and payments require insurance of some sort for a backstop or it can be game over.
Knowledge of what makes a market is insurance.

[SASKFARMER3]

V I for once agree with you.
Macdon good on you being so leveraged on paper.
But a old guy once said the dream for his farm was to have a years worth of grain on the farm as a insurance. He is long gone but did get their. No risk at all when things hit the ditch. Just drove in and out and back on the road, then stopped and bought a bunch of guys out and continued on.
Both are good.
But back to stats can and USDA. Both need a new invention.
USDA fuddged the corn numbers a few years ago as the USA was out of corn and their would have been riots as food went through the roof.
Stats Canada is just a useless organization that's time has come to be put out to pasture.
All that needed to be done is Sask crop has 37000 farmer clients who have to send in stored grain at end of year. You want that number since if you have a crop failure you definitely want them to measure your stored grain so they don't add that grain to this years crop.
Manitoba and alberta are similar. True production.
Oh wait that's to easy.
What a joke.
I can honestly say the bins of every single guy I chat with on Canola were cleaned out swept out and gone by end of July. $12.00 a bushel was possible with right basis.
So now they think were in over supply. What a f$#king Joke.

[Braveheart]

So, canola closed lower mainly due to Statscan. Their reporting is so poor they should change their name to Statscan't.

Markets go down when there are more sellers than buyers. But, really, who would want to sell this market? Reseeded canola yields are way down for most. Lots of questions around the US crops with excess moisture in the US earlier. Also earlier, the drought in western Canada. China might have economic woes, but those billions of people, pigs, cows, etc still need to eat.

I'm certainly not bullish right now, but, there comes a time when bearish talk just gets tired.