Canola Discussion

[Guest]

yes, just about every single one of the market experts told us that , including almost every market report in producer . yet they are all still "experts" working with grain co's helping to get our canola for prices below cop and no one every asks them how they got it wrong again ??

[oneoff]

Time to reread history ....again and again....because there are such short memories

[mcdon]

Recent drop in crude and hog prices underscores the importance of price risk management, energy firms that "got it wrong" have gone broke.Interesting that the one commodity that has a functioning futures market is also the commodity that is providing a reasonable price to farmers.

[charliep]

To highlight, new crop has rallied nicely. Oct./Nov. delivery are both within spitting distance of $10/bu. Don't know if this will prove to be to be low next fall but I do know not a bad place to start new crop pricing.

I asked this question before/never got a response but what canola price would you use tolday if you would developing a business case/financial plan for a land purchase decsion?

[farming101]

Total open interest has leveled off the last few days. Might be an indicator that the rally is going to take a pause. However it might not be today. Another green day so far.

[farmaholic]

If you can tell me what my canola will yeild with any degree of certainty, I will tell you what price I'll plug into the formula.

I would lowball it though. Betted to be pleasantly surprised than utterly disappointed.

[charliep]

Just trying to figure out what a good canola price is.

I will stick my neck out and say my current year/long term budgets would be in the $9 to $9.50/bu area. Is this a forecast for prices this fall? No. It is what I would use in my decision making.

[blackpowder]

No no no Farmaholic. Your never going to fit in with those $5000-$10000/yr advisory services with an attitude like that!

[bucket]

Charliep

Then the decision is easy - don't grow it.

[Oliver88]

It's unfortunate lots of farmers sold for under $10/bushel.