• You will need to login or register before you can post a message. If you already have an Agriville account login by clicking the login icon on the top right corner of the page. If you are a new user you will need to Register.

Thoughts on the market/strategies

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • furrowtickler
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2004
    • 21880

    #11
    #1 13.5 here is barely over $6 -
    If I could get $7 it would be all gone

    Comment

    • furrowtickler
      Senior Member
      • Dec 2004
      • 21880

      #12
      One of the reasons land in Sask is cheaper and always will be - wheat / Bly/ and canola always at a discount b/c of freight or just general looting by local elevators

      Comment

      • mbdog
        Senior Member
        • Dec 2013
        • 345

        #13
        My thoughts...wheats continue to show bottoming action...fundamentals/rhetoric still overhang this market. Still going to be issues with converting grain to cash re:grade spreads/premiums-discounts whether using long bin or basis contracts strategy.
        Looks like lots of technical barriers between 6.25-7.50 minny futures... which means nothing without posted/known/forecasted grade spreads in the conversion to cash/net to me.
        Grade spread should play out, but such a wildcard to capture.
        Net to me...low to high quality HRS...6-8$ is my winter target range for sale of physicals. based on technical barriers, known fundamentals and recent cash action.
        Dec could remain volatile but certainly, and argueably shots are being fired across the buy bow. I choose to remain patient with a mix of long bin/deferred basis.

        Comment

        • fjlip
          Senior Member
          • Oct 2002
          • 9820

          #14
          Wheat futures peak early May, Canola June- July, 90% of the time. Wonder if this snow has moisture, deep and fluffy now. Bags will be way more work.

          Comment

          • mbdog
            Senior Member
            • Dec 2013
            • 345

            #15
            Fj...do you think seasonals are still largely at play?

            Comment

            • fjlip
              Senior Member
              • Oct 2002
              • 9820

              #16
              Sure looked like it, now wheat strength is a surprise, chart is straight up, 6.52 Dec MGE next resistance, then on to $7?

              Comment

              • mbdog
                Senior Member
                • Dec 2013
                • 345

                #17
                Action making charts look good...promising...maybe builds case for seasonals if you run the chart out....assuming weakness is bought....which I don't know how anyone could interpret the charts any other way. Intensity of lift is interesting... enough for me to wait it out for a while.
                Shoulda bought those calls Wind came up around 2...Pretty sure it was caused by all the bin doors slamming shut

                Comment

                • mbdog
                  Senior Member
                  • Dec 2013
                  • 345

                  #18
                  then again...seen futures shit the bed to many times after a couple of days like this...I may need to gut check/re-evaluate over next couple days/weeks...but will remain patient on futures given recent developments.

                  Comment

                  • Reply to this Thread
                  • Return to Topic List
                  Working...