Canola - upside not till Jan/ Feb??

[charliep]

If you go back to your original post, you were enquiring about fall prices. I think basis will stay strong at least until harvest deliveries kick in. Futures will be a tough slug. No problem with storing but pay attention. My two bits.

[farmaholic]

I moved my '13 canola to a crusher in mid August SHORTLY after it was contracted. $10.75 delivered. I know no one who is carrying old crop canola and saw a bunch of ugly fields in my summer travels.

COPA margins are still 75-100$ or doesn't that mean shit. Maybe they're higher when you take the supposed value of canola oil over soy oil.

[Oliver88]

I predict the canola average in Sask will be about 25 this year.

[blackpowder]

The unanswerable question is. For how long will prices fall below COP?

[mbdog]

Errol...I guess we have a difference of opinion on what the "market" is.

[bucket]

Errol and charliep

How is it that the market will pay more for soybeans and durum in the states?

And what happened to that term "arbritrage" that was a popular term just a few years back?

[SASKFARMER3]

The market is ****ed Charlie and Errol Its rather simple. Grain is being bought in the USA not what the markets think it is worth with paper trading by zit heads in offices with computers and spread sheets and program. Its the price plus what ever they need to pay to get product into their plants.
The futures market doesn't work. Manipulation is ongoing but its classed as normal trading.
Keep telling your self the market works. What a joke.

[farming101]

It seems some don't care if Malaysia is swimming in palm oil.
December bean oil up over 5% since Sept 10.
Canola, nothing much happening. Watch for the crush margin to move up.

[errolanderson]

This is the market problem straight ahead . . .

The combined U.S. soy and corn production may combine to exceed 18 billion bu. Total farm storage is estimated at 13 billion bushels.

This suggests a significant amount of product will be forced into the harvest market over the next 2 months.

Somewhere in this oversupply mess stateside will be a cash market bottom.

Then, all eyes will focus on South America.

[bucket]

If that's the case then why have the canola council wanting more production. And why research for better yields to be told Malaysia will dictate price.

Maybe more research on the logic of pricing and it's correlation to cost of production would be in order.