So my little hole in the wall organization held its
AGM today. But I have some pretty interesting Board
members from whom I learned quite a bit today.
One is a very large farmer from the Dalum -
Drumheller area and I asked him if he's moved
much grain this winter. He's moved everything
except for some canola and RSW he's holding back
should there be some premium price opportunities
during the spring and summer months. He said the
big money is in daily cash offerings to fill out
orders.
Director 2 is former car allocations manager at
Alberta Pool and later Agricore. He said that when
the CWB was in charge of car allocations they
administered the shipping block system where cars
were allocated on the 'shipping block basis'
provided inventory matched ship to sales with
strong consideration for delivery equity. But today's
commercial environment is completely
understandable, regardless of weather, where
inventory closest to port will move first, because of
the quickest financial return. Good for Alberta and
good for Manitoba. Saskatchewan shall be the last
basket to be emptied! That is why Tom4 is so smug
and why you guys in the middle are screwed.
2 other directors work for Agrium. One is manager
for the distribution centre in Calgary and the other
is manager of wholesale facilities in Canada and
north western US. The problems at Caresland have
really punched a whole in their Urea and NH3
production. If you pre-bought, you should be okay,
but spring purchases might be an issue. There may
be a need to allocate supplies by price. The other
problem is their expansion at the potash mine in
Sask, where construction has fallen way behind,
partly due to the weather. The issue is that they
made some pre-sales globally based on the
assumption of completing this expansion coming
on line in a timely manner, but their priorities now
are to satisfy those commitments in a timely
manner. So what both these guys said is that
farmers are going to have to align their fertilizer
purchases with the 365 day production cycle.
Interesting note; some have been buying fertilizer
and bagging it.
So, hope this helps you in your long term planning,
definitely a game changer - but that's the new
reality I'm afraid.
AGM today. But I have some pretty interesting Board
members from whom I learned quite a bit today.
One is a very large farmer from the Dalum -
Drumheller area and I asked him if he's moved
much grain this winter. He's moved everything
except for some canola and RSW he's holding back
should there be some premium price opportunities
during the spring and summer months. He said the
big money is in daily cash offerings to fill out
orders.
Director 2 is former car allocations manager at
Alberta Pool and later Agricore. He said that when
the CWB was in charge of car allocations they
administered the shipping block system where cars
were allocated on the 'shipping block basis'
provided inventory matched ship to sales with
strong consideration for delivery equity. But today's
commercial environment is completely
understandable, regardless of weather, where
inventory closest to port will move first, because of
the quickest financial return. Good for Alberta and
good for Manitoba. Saskatchewan shall be the last
basket to be emptied! That is why Tom4 is so smug
and why you guys in the middle are screwed.
2 other directors work for Agrium. One is manager
for the distribution centre in Calgary and the other
is manager of wholesale facilities in Canada and
north western US. The problems at Caresland have
really punched a whole in their Urea and NH3
production. If you pre-bought, you should be okay,
but spring purchases might be an issue. There may
be a need to allocate supplies by price. The other
problem is their expansion at the potash mine in
Sask, where construction has fallen way behind,
partly due to the weather. The issue is that they
made some pre-sales globally based on the
assumption of completing this expansion coming
on line in a timely manner, but their priorities now
are to satisfy those commitments in a timely
manner. So what both these guys said is that
farmers are going to have to align their fertilizer
purchases with the 365 day production cycle.
Interesting note; some have been buying fertilizer
and bagging it.
So, hope this helps you in your long term planning,
definitely a game changer - but that's the new
reality I'm afraid.