Quick snapshot of today’s ABARE report with further analysis to follow:
- Australian wheat crop estimated at 26.2 million tonnes, up a strong 1.7mmt from their estimate in September.
- The major changes were in WA where production was lifted 2.3mmt, or 32%, to 9.6mmt. The crop in Victoria was also lifted by 0.6m, or 20%, to 3.55mmt. Major cuts were made in NSW (down 0.57m to 6.65mmt) and QLD (-0.5m to 1.2mmt), while SA was revised marginally lower but remains strong at 5.17mmt.
- Barley production estimated at 8.62mmt, up 950kmt from the September report. The increase was again due to WA where the crop was pegged at 2.78mmt, up 665k from the previous report. VIC was lifted 420kmt and SA was increased 150kmt, while NSW was cut by 88kmt, a similar percentage figure to that of wheat. We believe they are still underestimating the barley crop in WA, while the VIC number is a little surprising, particularly given the difficult finish for some of the northern regions.
- Canola production was estimated at 3.4mmt, up 100kmt from the September report. There was a 240kmt lift in production in WA, a 27kmt jump in SA and VIC was raised 18kmt, but this was offset by a 185kmt cut in NSW.
- Sorghum plantings have been cut severely from their September report. They were previously estimating a 12% rise from the previous season, but that is now forecast to fall 7%. Production has been estimated at 1.6mmt compared to 2mmt previously.
- Australian wheat crop estimated at 26.2 million tonnes, up a strong 1.7mmt from their estimate in September.
- The major changes were in WA where production was lifted 2.3mmt, or 32%, to 9.6mmt. The crop in Victoria was also lifted by 0.6m, or 20%, to 3.55mmt. Major cuts were made in NSW (down 0.57m to 6.65mmt) and QLD (-0.5m to 1.2mmt), while SA was revised marginally lower but remains strong at 5.17mmt.
- Barley production estimated at 8.62mmt, up 950kmt from the September report. The increase was again due to WA where the crop was pegged at 2.78mmt, up 665k from the previous report. VIC was lifted 420kmt and SA was increased 150kmt, while NSW was cut by 88kmt, a similar percentage figure to that of wheat. We believe they are still underestimating the barley crop in WA, while the VIC number is a little surprising, particularly given the difficult finish for some of the northern regions.
- Canola production was estimated at 3.4mmt, up 100kmt from the September report. There was a 240kmt lift in production in WA, a 27kmt jump in SA and VIC was raised 18kmt, but this was offset by a 185kmt cut in NSW.
- Sorghum plantings have been cut severely from their September report. They were previously estimating a 12% rise from the previous season, but that is now forecast to fall 7%. Production has been estimated at 1.6mmt compared to 2mmt previously.