When is best time to buy fertilizer before year end?

[wade]

farminggal-
There are alot of variables to your question. Do you plan on taking delivery and storing (do you plan on buying storage also) or simply to prebuy? Or?
I agree, at this time of year there seem to be "deals" around. The idustry cannot physically produce and handle all the volume at seeding time.
I have only ever purchased at this time of year what I can use this fall. I don't have storage and have seen good fertilizer come out of storage bad. I usually buy at year-end and take delivery at seeding time. Usually (but not always)it is cheaper then than in spring. When there used to be more independent dealers, they would "price protect". Also, if you have a good relationship with your dealer and it does go down in price, they can be more sympathetic in some of their other pricing(blending, spraying, equipment rental, etc.)
It's the same as selling grain- shop around, educate yourself and pick a price you can work with.
It feels like I should add a disclaimer here-lol
Good luck!

[vvalk]

Wow. Will direcct this to bucket but all others in
agreement with bucket as well. Gouging? What
are you talking about? Do you think an IPad
costs $700 to make? You could go on all day with
examples. They charge what the market can bear.
As for fertilizer there has only been 1 year in the
last 10 where buying fert in the end of summer/fall
did not pay big time. I have paid for my bins
dozens of time over. In some single years alone
you could have paid for each bin 3 times over.On
top of huge savings you have the safety of having
the product on farm. How many time of we seen
guys talk on here about not being able to seed
because they can't get fert? What does that cost?
Not saying this is the case bucket but sounds like
you can't afford to buy right now so your justifying
why you shouldn't buy. Without a doubt buying
fert at the end of summer has been the biggest
input savings, of any input, on my farm. Nothing
comes close

[bucket]

Nope I can buy, once I clean out my fertilizer bins.

It just pisses me off when the industry feeds a line. We are not all that stupid.

Fertilizer based on its main feedstock - natural gas - is overpriced. And if you look at international prices it is as well.

The price at our door should be the same here as half way around the world located next to an equivalent fertilizer plant. Since we live in a global economy now.

[bucket]

BTW even if 46-0-0 was reasonably priced at 400 - 500 a tonne the fertilizer companies would still be showing exceptional returns to the shareholders maybe better because their tonnage would be up.

Their feedstock - natural gas is costing them nothing right now.

Whenever you have groups like FNA or the company building in Iowa, deciding to build fertilizer plants you know fertilizer is overpriced.

Although the bakken field has to get rid of the excess gas somewhere - it might as well be fertilizer.

Just think, when companies used to flare gas off, how much fertilizer could have been made.

[vvalk]

Until these new fert plants are built and we
get more N production the price of natural
gas will have nothing to do with urea
pricing. Bucket what case can be made that
delaying fert pricing is the right thing to
do over the last 10 years. Now add in the
slow barge traffic and high commodity prices
and what makes you think pricing will drop.
It might but I'm not willing to chance it

[bucket]

I am not saying to anyone delay pricing or otherwise. Actually, don't take advice from me, I just use this to think outloud, for other opinions.

But the current line is that fertilizer is following canola prices and that the american farmer will use more than usual because of high crop prices.

Not sure I follow the logic. A drought doesn't use alot of fertilizer. And the guys that got burnt something terrible with disease in their canola this year are looking at other alternatives.

For instance it might make sense to drop 20 bucks/acre of the fertilizer bill to buy a disease package for the canola.

The guys that spent tons on fertilizer are finding out others that spent less ended up with better crops because of timing of seeding, missing the heat wave etc.

There is more to farming than just sinking a shitload of inputs to your crops and expecting the best crop in the country. Some of it is luck, some of it is careful study of the land and some is watching mother nature.

I watched guys spin their wheels in the mud and now ther are just spinning their wheels trying to justify their expenses. Their crops were not that good.

[Hopperbin]

what ever happened to the news about the low water in the Mississippi and the threat of not being able to float fert. northward? That could be disastrous for our spring price. Another thing I am always perturbed about is why we cannot purchase anhydrous at this time of year for spring delivery? why why why

[HappyFarmer]

Pretty simple hopper.
A good exscuse to gouge, gouge, gouge.
And trust me it's not your retailers fault. Thank
agrium Cargill Koch for that!

[HappyFarmer]

Pretty simple hopper.
A good exscuse to gouge, gouge, gouge.
And trust me it's not your retailers fault. Thank
agrium Cargill Koch for that!

[pgluca]

Usually buy all my fertilizer now and have started this year. 8 or 9 years out of 10 it pays me well, a lot better return than my other investments. Several times is has paid more than my bins cost. So if you dislike Agrium (and I can understand that) you can cut off your nose to spite your face and not move any of their inventory.
By the way I read just recently that the all in cost for manufacture and distribution of 46-00-00 at CF in Medicine Hat was $190.00/ tonne for 2011 and it is less for 2012. I just paid $595. (Maybe an investment in FNA's plant project would be okay??)