And the Slaughter continues!

[cottonpicken]

Working off beans,

17.89 sept 4th-15.04low overnight=15.8% decline

Depending on your risk tolerance and financial
commitments in the next 3 months i wouldn't bug
anyone for making sales this day,although i see a
small retrace to 15.50 in the very very short term.

[countryguy]

Congratulations SF3 and Livewire. Nice to see more farmers finally figuring it out.

[burnt]

One thing that most learn when they are in this business long enough is that the market pays what it bloody well feels like paying and does not give a rat's pattooey what my emotionally erratic state of mind "feels" it should pay me.

They feed the bulls and they feed the bears, but they always slaughter the hogs.

[samhill]

I would disagree that the market doesn't care. The
market always has a downside or bearish bias. Bull
runs are less frequent, but sometimes fundamentals
rule. Even then, traders know that there will be
pullbacks. Likely less that 2% of the population wants
the market to go up. Of course, strictly speaking of
grains, not all commodities, not all markets.

[boarderbloke]

"Likely less that 2% of the population wants the market to go up."

samhill, that's a good point, and I never really thought of it that way. I guess when we're always hanging out with other farmers the mind set is that we all want prices to go up, we don't always look at the bigger picture.

I sure as hell know that gov'ts around the world don't want prices to go up. They'd rathe subsidize a few farmers than subsidize the whole population.

[Kodiak]

"They'd rather subsidize a few farmers than subsidize the whole population."

Hmmmmm. Are you sure about this? Seems to me there was never a problem, a destitute group, or a disaster a politician didn't love.
The way these dummies act, maybe they would rather subsidize the whole population. Then they get to buy more votes. Subsidize farmers and get 2% of the vote, or subsidize everyone else and buy 98% of voter? And then just print the money to pay for it.......
Buy, borrow, print. Repeat.

[hobbyfrmr]

I am pretty sure Errol has been calling this
correction for some time. Everybody hammered
on him. I would now like to invite him to say, "I
told you so."

[errolanderson]

hobbyfrmr . . . all I see is the mix of factors and human emotion coming together that will ultimately break a price trend. Have seen these trends many times in my career. Bull markets always have a spike top and a short-shelf life. Bear markets always have U-shaped bottomsd can last many months. This is due to human emotion.

My timing as everyone has witnessed is awful. Thought canola at $550/MT was a heck of a sell. Canola only ended up an further $100/MT.

But markets repeat themselves over 'n over because bull markets always go through the cycle of 'greed', 'hope' that prices will recover, 'fear' that all is not well and finally panic.

There will be ongoing rallies to hone ahead. But for now, the summer rally of 2012 is over (IMO). Next is 2013.

all the best in your marketing . . . .
Errol

[BreadWinner]

Thanks for the input errol, I sold for 640 and I still
think its going to go higher. I think I'll hang on to
my last 1/3 and sell at 710 in January.