Anyone thinking of just selling all their canola this fall off the combine?

[HappyFarmer]

I like your thought process Hopper.

Drinking margaritas on the beach sound a whole lot better than checking bins all winter.

[Partners]

The way this harvest is looking we should all be sitting on a beach and drinking, next winter to try and forget 2012...Canola looks like a crop failure, Bly is 44 lbs...Wht looks VG but who knows what that will turn out like..Super High humidity means short days on the combine...

[charliep]

I would look at the soymeal inverse and impact on crush values.

March July canola - $20/tonne.

March July soyoil - basically the same.

March July soymeal - $50//ton or 2.5 cents/lb.


A tonne of canola has about 1300 pounds of meal (soybean meal value - $32.50). Canola meal has benefits in terms of by-pass protein in dairy rations (someone else will have to explain) but has less energy/protein than soybean meal. I adjust by a factor of 70 %. The reduction in value would be about $20/tonne as reflected in the market.

Just curious if the deferred contracts for a February canola deliver versus June reflect the inverse or whether adjustments in basis pay carry on the cash side? The company site I look at reflects the inverse in cash prices.

[Rareearth]

Yes been thinking about selling. Basis is
narrowing, what is the highest historic positive
basis level? Corn in the USA this year had very
high positive basis, can't put a number to in in
dollars bushel right now, but it seems canola
should be in a similar supply shortage this year
and possibly require the same positive basis?

[wakopa]

-20dollar basis train coming in 2 weeks ,i
can haul in and not sell till march, no
checking bins , not big bu. im a small
farmer.

[Rareearth]

Would 60 be possible? Not sure how high
Yorktown was last year in their low production
area where they had to fight for product. This
year it could be western Canada wide, domestic
cush vs export markets? By selling now you lose
out or miss any basis movement.

[furrowtickler]

Depends on when we combine canola... Yesterday we hit $14 canola so ya I guess some, 25% depending on yield.