Principal field crops, March 2012 (intentions)

[SASKFARMER3]

Charley the crushers are looking in
yorkton for canola in august early sept
then basis changes. Its better than past
so me thinks they know the bins are
empty. Talked to Cargil yesterday and
all BTO are out of Canola but surprising
some well off smaller farmers do have
some. Not huge numbers just a bin or
two. But he also felt the bins would be
empty come July. If the USA has beans in
20s then for sure the bins will be
empty.

[furrowtickler]

Not surprising at all that mid sized farmers have canola left. Most of these guys are not chasing more land and paying huge rents thus require less cash flow. They can play the game alot longer than others. There is a reason for everything.
For the first time in a long time stats can is going to be very close.

[Farmkid1]

Dave in North Sask lots of growers were big on canola in 2011 because we were flooded out in 10. The rotations seem to be going to peas, barley and wheat, with about half in canola....instead of 3/4's of the farm like last year. Canola/snow/canola has not caught on much yet. If numbers stay good, it will...so yes even with the summerfallow acreage in the south I think the north is pulling back a little.

[furrowtickler]

Good to see the canola market up still after the stats can report.

[dave4441]

OK, good comments. Might be a little less canola in SW and Kindersley area (it was pretty yellow here last year) due to expected drought. With some additional moisture it may not be easy (and high n price) to jump those acres back to last years levels. May also explain why lentil acreage is maintaining itself to some degree.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

How many acres of grass and or hay have been turned into crop land? Seems like there might be a little more than usual. Is there any public information available on this?

[furrowtickler]

You could be right dave there is some good moisture forecast for the weekend accross the southwest.
There is some hay/pasture comming out around here but strong cattle prices are keeping most of it in. Some guys are switching to corn grazing and relying less on hay, those acres are being turned over but small amounts.

[charliep]

I suspect the survey would catch some of this but likely not a lot/be suspect. How much land is hay/pasture land is getting broken up in your community? You may disagree but there is the beginning of light at the end of the tunnel for the cattle industry and that will signal more cow/heifer retention - more pasture/hay needed. Also gets into how much hay being carried forward and the impact of weather on hay yields/pasture carrying capacity this summer.

More of an issue to me is silage acres and the impact of reduced feeder cattle numbers/backgrounding.

[errolanderson]

Thought on basis . . . new crop basis
levels remain incredible (over Nov/Jan
etc). This suggests that crushers and
exporters have strong sales for
fall/winter movement (likely to China).

With Stats Can supportive to canola plus
strong basis levels, canola likely won't
break unless soybeans break. Soybeans
are key.

But can new crop canola futures now
break into new highs? IMO . . . Nov
canola at $585/MT meets formible
resistance. As crazy as this sounds, it
new crop doesn't break into new highs,
it may then fail back. We'll have proof
in the pudding soon.

Errol

[furrowtickler]

One thing though on any additional canola acres. Not enough fert currently available and prices are a big limiting factor on any swing acres regardless of market prices. Some will not get enough fert for planned acres already.