New Crop Canola Needle Top?

[tipsy]

The interesting chapter of the 2010/11 canola crop is... how much unpriced canola is left on the farm that's available for the industry to use between now and when new crop is available??? My guess would be right around 10%??? If my number is close, will this be enough to keep everyone supplied?

[Kodiak]

Crap. I think I messed up everybody's screen. Joe, can you turn the url I posted into a working link and replace it on my post?

Sorry everyone......

[tipsy]

correction should be 2011/12 crop not 2010/11.

[cottonpicken]

Resistance is 14.50 in beans.

[errolanderson]

crusher . . . we have been purchasing
November 570 puts fairly aggressively
between $20 to $22/MT.

$570 strike - $21 premium = $549/MT
($12.45/bu) plus or minus your fall
delivered basis.

[charliep]

I'll add basis into the discussion. Someone told there are companies offering overs (premium to futures) for new crop. New crop basis contracts versus historical levels? Sell futures on the current rally (you pick your timing) and buy calls on dips.

[errolanderson]

Charlie - Nov basis heard between $10
under to $10 over for early fall
delivery. That's remarkable for harvest
movement.

Strong Futures Strong Basis = Sell the
cash signal.

To me, growers may want to sign DDC
contracts (10 to 30%) of expected
production and then consider scaling in
puts and hope they expire worthless. But
if they don't expire, you will be glad
to own the protection.

Errol