Strong finish!!

[bucket]

But maybe it is there since Saskfarmer3 was saying in another thread he was getting 10 bucks for heated canola

[charliep]

The strong pace of exports and crush are not new information. They are both factors in the $600/tonne canola futures and the current strong basis levels.

Will western Canada run out of canola? Maybe but markets function is to make sure that doesn't happen. Historically, Statistics Canada has undersestimated canola production (suspect this year may be no different) with negative feed waste and dockage showing up on the unadjusted July 31 stocks report.

Will canola hit $15/bu this spring? No idea but I won't bet on it. I would feel a lot more confident if soybeans/soyoil moved higher - particularly new crop. On that same theme, I would be watching the old/new crop canola spreads.

Whatever your viewpoint, we are in for some interesting times ahead.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, CBT soybeans, CBT soybean meal and ICE canola futures all have an old/new crop inverse. CBT soybean oil is relatively flat at 55 to 56 cents/lb.

The economy and impact on vegetable oil in S.E. Asia as well as fuel demand/biodiesel consumption in Europe/North America are also unknowns. Lots of talk on Agriville on both these topics.

[hedgehog]

expect more gains tomorrow, hottest march day ever in scotland today, 22.8c. Europe is burning up!

[cottonpicken]

Farmers are 100% leveraged when it comes to
marketing.

40 bushel canola x 3 dollar swings=120 dollar per
acre difference-OFF the top or off the bottom of the
bottom line.

THATS why the bantering and fighting and swearing
and kicking and screaming-here-are so important.

[SASKFARMER3]

Using your example cotton on a 4000 acre
canola farm 120 dollars difference on
canola crop is a extra 1/2 mill in one
farms pocket vs another. As I have said
before some grow huge crops and then sell
at bottom.
Marketing is the key!

[hedgehog]

but where is the bottom?

or the top?

[Hopperbin]

One could just as easily grow a 25 bushel crop instead of the 40 and at 13 dollars per acre the 4000 acres of canola just got .78 million wiped from the gross income.

[cottonpicken]

http://www.chartsrus.com/chart1.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTS

This is the chart i was working off for the 24$ bean call i made a few years ago,we got to over 16 and i think we could have made it but around the
same time the global economy collapsed and everything sold off.

I made a bet at the same time about canola doubling with Wedino and only missed it by a hair,and it cost me a 40 ounce bottle,but i gained a real
love of technical analyst.

So bottoms and tops in specific time frames can be predicted with some accuracy,but i would equate it to predicting the weather,even drew learner
isn't right all the time.

[charliep]

Just curious how many of you have a performance measure of how you are doing on your marketing/pricing in your business plan and actively review it every year. That might start with a weighter average price and a way to compare against an average price for the year.

[charliep]

Another interesting day. Perhaps why I am a student of the market and not an expert. The actual market is my teacher.

No one gets to brag until they actually sell and deposit the check.

[errolanderson]

Given Friday's and Monday's strong
close, canola price volatility may be
quite high this week. Big up and down
days possible.

No way of telling where the top is of
this blow-off top phase of the market.
Commodity funds are getting more
technical buy signals and buy stops were
triggered today amplifying gains. Also,
markets are emotionally charged as
margins calls have been rough on the
short sellers (hedgers) in the market.

Errol

[charliep]

Market rallies like this and airplanes have something in common - they both come down eventually. I would be cautious going into Friday's USDA stocks and 2012 seeding intentions report.

[cottonpicken]

"The trend is your friend till it ends"

-it hasn't ended

[ColevilleH2S]

If you are saying, "sell the rumour," I would tend to agree.

Everyone is talking big acres for Corn. That has to be bullish Beans/Canola no? This coming report may or may not screw that all up.

I guess I'll have to make a sell decision before friday.