Stats Can BS again!!!

[bucket]

The lord gave analysts a brain, its beyond me why they haven't learned to use it.

North Dakota is drowned out, SE Saskatchewan is drowned out, the heat hasn't come to make these crops grow so if it does it will be at the worst time.

And yet, production is going up and acres are up. Most guys around here were lucky to get 120 acres out of a quarter. Sure, they are 100 per cent seeded but the acres are not there. Well, unless they are going to claim 160 to get the yield loss.

Either way the numbers don't add up.

Maybe having the market drop creates demand but the cupboards will be bare the next time they come knocking. Then what?

Flax acres are out to lunch. The SE didn't get seeded. The traditional area for that crop. Manitoba is a write off. And the northern tier states are struggling.

How does anyone with a brain write off 20 million plus acres of prime production land in North America and say things are rosy.

[charliep]

Blaming the wrong guys. Analsyts don't trade much. Players who are buying or selling everyday set prices.

From an old life, did crop reports for GMS/UGG 15 ish years ago. Followed a disciplined survey process (not perfect but as best could be done). Used to get crapped starting with trading area the next day and all the way to farmers (quite often 6 months after the fact). The life of this survey was at the outside 2 days in the market and I would argue more likely could be measured in minutes. When I reviewed results 6 months after fact, the surveys were surprising accurate.

Just curious. Futures market open interest rising or falling? Implications?

Suspect what is happening in the market today has nothing to do with Canada and strangely, only marginally what is going on with crop market fundamentals (bigger economy issues).

[bucket]

Sorry charliep wasn't meant to offend you, and you are right it should be pointed at the traders.


Still makes no sense even if you throw the economics at it. People and animals gotta eat.

I don't believe this crop is getting bigger.

[charliep]

None. Just an interesting discussion.

We have to know there is lots of risk ahead (with risk being both opportunity and consequences of something bad).

What I can comment on here in Alberta (not close enough to Saskachewan or Manitoba other that listening here/watching the media) is that the moisture situation provides opportunity for an excellent crop. We need heat and a couple more showers in July. An open fall right into October would seal. Will it happen? Don't know.

[charliep]

If you believe what you have said, then patience will be a virtue. Markets will do whatever they do on daily basis. A farmer only needs to worry about the market the half to a dozen times a year when you are wanting to pull the trigger.

Had an interesting telephone conversation with US livestock analysts. The question is whether the US industry is sustainable with $7/bu corn. The answer was likely not. Similar question question whether $90/barrel oil could sustain $7/bu corn. Likely not.

[bucket]

A 1/2" of rain makes grain. 3" makes for a disaster. Crop is late again, will be listening to xmas carols on the combine. Not a pleasurable thought.

[cottonpicken]

The specs are and commercials are one in the same.

If one or the other suspects one or the other is
going to do something they will move at the same
time.Anybody want to bet cargill underpays their
guys?Or they have no talent?

Think about a flock of birds or school of fish.

The reason i spend so much time away from supply
demand is that it is not the dominate factor and
hasn't been for the past ten years.

The broader market is calling the shots-follow the
crops that are not paper traded and you will see
this.

And the short term hell i was taking about before,is
here.

Liquidity is being drawn to paper,short term.

If anybody knew the decline rates of qwuar or
cantrell
you would wonder why crude wasn't 200 .

[Wheatking]

I don't think anyone is questioning the methodology of the numbers or the intentions of stats can, I am just concerned about the irrelevance of the data due to the time frame of when it was taken and when it comes out. I know my acreage numbers would have changed significantly a week after the survey was taken, due to is being much drier than anticipated(I took out oat acres and replaced with wheat). They need to get this info out a week after it is taken, because there are so many variables in ag, that to come out with seeding intentions after we are done seeding is useless. They should start the next survey immediately after the insurance deadlines and have it out before July 1st, this final number shouldn't change much over the summer.

In the information age stats can is being left in the stone age. Timely information is worth millions, late info is useless.

[charliep]

Strange comment but I will have a conversation on given day and have a recommendation for selling for one individual and buying for another. How could I do this? Because each one will have different object which may be locking in margin. Hedging is protecting from pain but also giving up opportunity. Different mindset on commercial hedger versus a speculator.

On the last post, Statscan is steeped in process and tradition.

[cottonpicken]

Strike my comment further down Charlie.

But direction is direction is it not.

Surely (don't call me shirley),a producer can make his
mind up on time frames.

Working a plan off the basis and options in todays
world does not work-only in a sideways market.