Explosive Cattle Board! . . . .

[WiltonRanch]

One thing you have to remember guys are putting more weight on calves. A hundred plus lbs more on the average makes a big difference in supply. Though I do agree with Grass about the bs we were fed about burdensome supply. Packer manipulation? Don't know. Retail squeezing the chain? Always.

[errolanderson]

U.S. cash cattle traded between $145 to $147/cwt yesterday afternoon. Astonishing! . . .

This does not feel like a 'Made in North America' rally. China beef buying demand from the U.S.?
Consumer will not tolerate these beef prices . . . . which is likely bullish for cash hogs.

Open interest suddenly dropped yesterday . . . a warning? Good grief, volatility extreme.

[burnt]

Limit moves 6 sessions in the last 7? Wow.

[sumdumguy]

A word starting with "S" and ending with "T" comes to mind. Can anyone guess the word?

[farming101]

Sweet?

[burnt]

In this context?

Maybe "sweat".

or maybe "summit", as in peak?



Or "shaft"?



Oh, try this one - "sellout"?


Hopefully not "subtract"??



C'mon, the suspense is killing me.

[Cattleman]

I am not saying this rally is going to continue. The extra weight on carcasses was a big driver down last fall, now with significant year over year decrease in weights it is a big markets benefit. Yes, world markets are critical and I do agree China will/is having a big impact. Just look at all the Aussie beef getting diverted there, which does help NA too. But China won't impact domestic prices massively in 5 months in my mind.

The market is the market, it just seems, if the market goes screaming up, all is well, but if they crash they are rigged against producers. Yes, we can't always explain the market, and some fluctuations are suspect, but they tend to average out. Maybe producers didn't get full price for their calves last fall, but the calves they sold for over $3/lb, was probably too high, as feedlots lost hundreds of dollars on them. Take the average price of calves over the last 2 years, and feedlot profit and losses over the last 2 years it has averaged out pretty good. Prices are still very strong in my books. I rather focus on my business understanding the market environment I operate in, rather than point fingers at everyone else when things don't go my way.

[sumdumguy]

I was kinda thinking "short" about Aug 15, but I wouldn't listen to a dumb guy when we've got wiseguys in the crowd. 🎯

[errolanderson]

I am not saying this rally is going to continue. The extra weight on carcasses was a big driver down last fall, now with significant year over year decrease in weights it is a big markets benefit. Yes, world markets are critical and I do agree China will/is having a big impact. Just look at all the Aussie beef getting diverted there, which does help NA too. But China won't impact domestic prices massively in 5 months in my mind.

The market is the market, it just seems, if the market goes screaming up, all is well, but if they crash they are rigged against producers. Yes, we can't always explain the market, and some fluctuations are suspect, but they tend to average out. Maybe producers didn't get full price for their calves last fall, but the calves they sold for over $3/lb, was probably too high, as feedlots lost hundreds of dollars on them. Take the average price of calves over the last 2 years, and feedlot profit and losses over the last 2 years it has averaged out pretty good. Prices are still very strong in my books. I rather focus on my business understanding the market environment I operate in, rather than point fingers at everyone else when things don't go my way.

well said . . . .

[blackjack]

well somebody didn't like where the board was at. Does anybody else think our livestock insurance is a joke.