Here's an idea!

[15444]

As everyone gets rid of their cows, why don't they get rid of all their cows and the majority of bulls, but keep their bred yearling heifers and heifer calves? That way you guys out west won't be screwing yourselves deeper into debt when you have to buy replacement heifers from the guys not affected by the drought about 1-2 years down the road? Living where I do, I plan to sell a few bred heifers when the market for replacements starts to climb. I will try and take advantage of who ever I can in order to get a great price for average heifers (so I can profit from someone else's stupidity!). Just figured if I do this than there must be a whole lot more like me out there. Maybe if people cull their cattle this way then they can avoid getting screwed in the future from people like me.

[cowman]

Well I think most people need the factory! Can't have an income with no cows. Their bred hfrs. will give them a calf(usually small) next year but not their hfr. calves. By the time these heifer calves have a calf they will have a lot of money invested in them. So what should a person do? Sell that good 4 year old cow for 55 cents(who produces the 700 lb. calf or the hfr.(who has a 500 lb. calf) for 75 cents? Gotta go where the money is!
I wonder if the price of bred heifers will go sky high? What if its dry next year? On the CBC news last night they said this drought type of weather might be the norm out here from now on. Also a whole lot of cattlemen are definitely not going back into cows no matter what. Too old to start all over. And also, I suspect, a lot of them are going to go broke! There won't be "next year" for them.

[rodbradshaw]

Cowman
I wouldn't believe a word about weather especially from Mother CBC. They tend to listen to the wacko's like Green Peace and David Suzuki, who are only in it to get their faces and names recognized. We could be in for a drier year again next year (4th year for us)but I don't believe that it is due to global warming and that this is what we are going to have to deal with into perpetuity.
Rod

[rodbradshaw]

15444
Cattlemen will cull keeping the best that they can and hopefully they will have enough feed to survive. I agree with Cowman that you have to keep the most effective factory possible. I also agree with the statement that some people will never get back into the cow business and we may see a large number of producers exit from agriculture period as happened in the 30's.

[jmillang]

I've heard that concept from a couple of producers as well. They were concerned with liquidating the herd and loosing all their genetics. The other plus is that heifer only likely needs have the feed to live on as the big cow.

Both concepts are valid but hold little economic benefit. By selling the cows you stop any income for the next two years, plus you have no idea how well your breeding program will work. We've been in the cow business many years and one heifer calf crop turns out the next is the pits interms of mothering, milking disposition etc. Now throw in the fact of reduced feed intake on developing females and we have a whole bunch of unknowns.

Around Central Alberta we seem to have a sigh of relief about the feed situation. I do know that not everyone has found enough yet (and what amount is enough) but with rain we now have green pastures and even a few guys west of Olds say the cows can't keep the grass in check (must be good grazers).

Any choice producers make must be made in an informed thought out process only bad decisions can be made out of panic.

[cowman]

It is amazing how the pastures are coming back! Another half inch of rain last night(good for the pastures but not so good for the oil lease reclamation business!). I suspect the recent rains will toughen some people up and get them in a frame of mind to try to hang in there. Maybe this drought thing has broken??? Maybe I can afford to hang in there??? I hope it works and mother Nature will co-operate. These are stressful times.

[leland]

Glad to hear someone out there is getting rain. We are north of Edmonton and still have only had 1.5" all season. Pastures still very poor and the next round of cow liquidation is about to start in this area. Silaged 10 tandem loads of Seebe Barley off an entire quarter. 5 loads off 55 acres that last year gave 39. How do we hold these cows over with $150 hay bales? We rented extra grass at $27.50 per month to get us through and reduce our stocking rates but we will only have feed for the calves, no winter cow feed. We have always kept a low stocking rate and didn't feed any cows untill Jan 15 last year and 1/3 of the herd grazed till Mar 15 last year. This year we will surely start winter feeding by Sept 30. Our grazing reserve held the cows out till the end of May and pulled the calves this week to keep the cows there a little longer. So as we chop feed we are feeding it already. I guess we think of weather cycles as short term but I believe they are possibly 60 to 70 or even 100 year cycles and as our lifespan is shorter we fail to realize the changes in weather. Gernerally this area is a net exporter of feed.

[pandiana]

Yes, west central is still getting more rain. A somewhat mixed blessing with what hay there is down on many fields. But we are not going to cut our lawn again after 3 weeks. It will be the 6th time this year with at least two of those dandelions only. And it does take away some of the stress, but we still have no locally grown winter feed to purchase. We are still looking to an very expensive winter if we keep cows.

[pandiana]

I am one that is getting out. It doesn't make sense to winter ANY animals at a significant loss, especially if you've any debt. How much work are your animals? More importantly, do you enjoy it, does it enhance your quality of life, and is it the best use of your time and energy? Or do you just do it because your dad did it or because "that's what I've always done for a living?" This is one year that is calling into question all our old paradigms. It is surely a year of change, and has certainly driven many of us who raise critters in the drought area to the breaking point. I was in the bank last week, and noticed a mostly empty box of kleenex on the guy's desk. He told me it's there because he sees grown men breaking down in his office over their situation.

Those with deep pockets may be able to weather the "weather" for another year or even a few more years. If this weather pattern is indeed very long term, we are in for "interesting times".

I suggest that there is going to be a good upcoming market for custom grass raised meat, as urbanites become increasingly fussy about their food. Those who live within a reasonable travelling distance from the cities will have an easier time marketing their critters. Not sure how some of us who live in the sticks are going to make out though. The neighbor just got $15 each for his lambs. And not everybody wants to/is good at doing their own marketing/advertising.

We have had three inches of rain here since the spring melt.

[cowman]

Tavani: You are the voice of common sense. Very good to hear in the sea of "cowlovers"! Dollars and cents have to add up in any business, or it isn't a business at all...it is an expensive hobby!
And Rod I'm shocked you would question the integrity of Mothercorp or such a venerable scientist as David Suzuki! I think they need to send you back to school for some brainwashing in the Canadian way!

[pandiana]

cowman: You sure do seem to be down on 'cowlovers' these days. There is no doubt in my mind that there is every reason to dump all cows this year if you are looking at the short term and getting out anyway. Nonetheless there remain many questions. How expensive will it be to get back in if you are not finished farming? Say you have invested a pile of money into specialized cattle related machinery and equipment. Will you be forced to sell this at bargain prices if everyone takes your advice? What are you going to live on while you try to rebuild your herd or on the otherhand, re-equip for another venture? I have heard over and over that some cattlemen have spend a lifetime building their herds. If it is dry next year will you be able to make enough hay to offset your lost income? How many farmers can the oilpatch absorb? Or, are we all going to flock to the city to live the good life?

[cowman]

You just might have a point there about me being too hard on "cowlovers"! I guess what bugs me is how some people haven't sat down with the calculator and figured out the exact costs and then considered the pros and cons of what they are doing. Perhaps I get a little disgusted with the attitude of farmers in general in this regard! And perhaps its because I've been just as irrational about this business!
In a normal business the most competent usually survive. Competition allows that to happen. In farming its almost like reality goes out the window and sentiment comes flowing in. I guess in my case business makes more sense to me than pleasure. Besides I'm too old to do this anymore.