Cattle prices

[SCS]

Turned down 3000 for bred purebred hfrs. Went through drought, BSE, tighten the cinch and maybe retirement will work!

[mcdon]

Feeders up another 21/2 cents this A.M., one more bearish analysis and we'll be at $3.00. Good on anyone that has stuck with their cattle through the tough times.

[bucket]

Be interesting to know what the equity burn was to stay in cattle for these tough years?

[Braveheart]

Bucket, it depended whose numbers were used. Current inventory values given by us or used by lenders was lower. AgStability seemed to have them much higher.

[bucket]

Braveheart

5 years in a declining market would of reduced their margins where the government could say they are helping but it's not designed to.

But keep trying to praise the conservatives for purposely losing a generation of replacement ranchers.

By equity burn it means what did they sacrifice to still be here.

Using the tractor to 15000 hours to where it's worthless. Driving a 20 year old half ton. Sons gone to other industries and not coming back. Mortgaging pastures.

The real equity burn is losing the sons to other industries.

[errolanderson]

15444 - feeder / live cattle put options.

no government involvement

simple tool with powerful price protection.

[mcdon]

Meat horses worth 30-40 cents/lb, feeders $2.50 {?}, how long is it going to be until horse meat is found in hamburger ? Happened in France when the spread was much smaller. Speaking of spreads, the spread between live cattle and feeders is at an all time high(I think), any ideas on where it should be, or is feeder cattle contract broken ?

[errolanderson]

mcdon . . . very cheap and abundant corn sets the stage for a hike in North American meat production in 2015.

don't think we have to worry about horse meat in hamburger.

[bucket]

You do realize the meat production for 2015 is from the 2014 calf crop.

The bred heifers in the herd now are the 2016 meat production.

The heifers are barely keeping pace with the cows going to slaughter.

There is not a growing herd in Canada. This upswing is the retirement call.

Maybe you should get into the business errol. You are still young enough to do it right? Or do you want to enjoy a few more golf games?

Corn could be a buck a bushel but unless cattle are being imported on boats to be fed. Meat production is stable or decreasing.

Maybe heavier weights but seems unlikely considering they are buying everything for slaughter.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, western Canada has lost 3 million tonnes plus/minus feed grain consumption because of lower livestock numbers. We are more dependent on export markets for crops.

From a agriculture standpoint, the cow calf sector is the one who is beneting. I suspect that backgrounding operations and feeders are paying the high prices for animals with their margins remaining tight. Bidding on less animals.

I know this thread is about futures trading opportunities but there are lots of dynamics in the cash/physical market. I suspect a lot of Canadian calves will move south to cheap US corn inspite of MCOOL. Empty lots/excess feed means for a very interesting markets that will supercede politics.