Will Ranchers Be Holding Back More Heifers in 2010 - Herb Lock, FarmSense Marketing

[per]

Grassfarmer asked...

Where do the hobby operations, from the mega large “image “ ranches to the 5 cow “big hat” guys fit in all of this?

From a commodity perspective the outfits big and small that never really needed to make a profit to survive have been a huge problem to the industry. As far as large and medium commodity operations go, a value chain connection is essential to future prosperity and smaller businesses need to follow the GF path.

[grassfarmer]

Putting words in my mouth again per ;o)

[wauchope]

pretty simple to explain the cutbacks. there will not be enough young people coming into the business.
Land is expensive,cows and calves don't bring in enough money compared to the land value and machinery expenses either renting/custom/owning.
there is just not enough return as the interview stated. a profit of $ 50 or $100 you need a lot of cows if that is your sole income.
How many young people want to really do this because that will be the sole driving factor.I know only a few.
My son would love to farm but he told me no way is he raising cattle.my land will be returned to cropland ,even some of the poorest will be cropped.
A five year drop in numbers? Just the tip of the iceberg it is going to get far worse.and I have not even got into the crooked buyers and packers screwing the hell out of the cow/calf man.

[per]

You can still go down to the auction market and see exuberant folks that got $1.05 or what ever and are happy as can be. This year our commodity grassers brought the same as pre BSE when we were doing OK in the commodity end. Our expenses have gone up substantially since 2003 and there is the small issue of catching back up. Can't bring myself to be joyous about the commodity world in any form close to what it is. If the young guys want to be in the cattle business for the long run and be sustainable they need mentors that are sustainable in this environment today. I guess this is a challenge for those of us that direct market and have some sort of added value chain to help out the young guys so there is someone to utilize these natural resources.