New Crop Acreage Shifts

[charliep]

Participation is slowing down which is a good sign that spring is close. What are people going to be seeding this spring. What are the major shifts in your communities?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

It will be interesting what the CWB does with their basis today.

The CWB has been really bullish recently, will we see them come back to reality today?

If they do not, it could be a good pricing opportunity for wheat!

If they do come back to earth, will this cause Canola to tank?

[charliep]

Good point Tom. I suspect that today's forecast/contracting opportunities have to reflect the market (they have to hedge it if people contract). Hopefully people look beyond today's spot price/new crop price offering and more at longer term price trends. We also have another month of information before final seeding decisions are made. My philosophy remains to stick with crop rotations that have a fit in a farm/a blend of crops.

[TOM4CWB]

Well,

CWRS, Soft White Wheat and CPS Red Crystal and CPS White Vista are the really big winners!

Barley and CWES are dead ducks.

Did big tonnes, will buy back calls to cover risk and upside!

This is a much better wheat basis, much closer to real world, will reduce southern pressure to the US big time!

Barley is a total disaster!

[AdamSmith]

I made a cropping plan in December and am probably going to stick wiith it.

My farm is in SW MB

Canola, Peas, CWRS Wht, Winter Wht already planted.

I'm maintaining my historical rotational balance between cereals and non cereals of 50/50.

I grew AC Crystal last yr and was an absolute disaster because of fusarium.
Yields wern't bad, but the Tilt application just gave me bigger,plumper fusarium kernels. So I'm growing all AC Barrie CWRS for my spring wht acres.

3/4 of non cereal acres will be Canola,
RReady and Clearfield. "R" to blackleg is the biggest determinent for variety choice.

I grew Linola last yr, but was not happy with the mess the field was left in. I grew it on a dirty field and that didn't help.

Keeping it simple this yr.

The more I hear farmers cutting back canola acres the better I like it, because I'm not cutting back.

Just call me a contrarian (sp?)

AdamSmith

[chas]

Adamsmith: we are more alike then you would like to think. We seed about 50/50 wheat and canola peas. Wheat is all CWRS Prodigy(showing good yield and protein), RR canola and e-space peas. I have allways stuck to a rotation and most of the neighborhood does with some small variations.
I was pretty optimistic about fall prices until about a week ago. This foot and mouth problem could push prices lower now if feed grain stocks build up in the EU because of the herd slaughter.
I will not cut my input program unless soil and weed contitions warrant it.
I'm determented to go broke doing it the best way money can buy. I've made money so far and hope it keeps going that way. Might look pretty bleak next winter though if we don't turn some of these animal problems around. Chas

[Braveheart]

Our farm is in southern MB. Our traditional crop mix includes winter wheat, peas, canola, oats, and for the last 2 years some grain corn. This year we will grow winter wheat, a lot of spring wheat and some canola. We've taken peas out because everyone is growing and expanding acres of peas, but mainly because no one is willing to forward contract with us at a reasonable price. The best bids here were at $3.80 for November and that has now eroded to about $3.25. I'd rather do nothing for nothing than something for nothing. Oats are a dead horse here because of the EU subsidized oats that are still finding their way into the US. Barley won't cut it because of fusarium damage taking out of both the hog market and the malt market.

The biggest change we're going to make is to switch to more knowledge based farming decisions. We hope to soil test every field, and only apply fertilizer where absolutely needed. The same applies to other inputs. Crop scouting on every field will be done, and if a herbicide or fungicide is not required in a big way, it won't be applied. We can no longer afford what used to be insurance applications.

Our canola acreage will be down 40%. But before Adam Smith runs out and buys that Mexican time share, remember the world is floating in veg oil. South American beans are coming off with record yields and increased acres. I don't think the market has grasped what the foot and mouth crisis will do yet either.

Braveheart

[winston]

As another Southern MB farm we are going to stick to our rotation of RSW, Canola, Winter Wheat with a bit of Flax to make the fall entertaining. I think that the price of fertilizer will mean a little less N being applied which may decrease yields slightly. Disease and weather will probably affect final yields in MB more than apllying 10 or so pounds less N.

[lorne]

Tom
What do you mean when you say "Did big tonnes, will buy back calls to cover risk and upside!" and "Barley and CWES are dead ducks" and "Barley is a total disaster!"

Were you refering to feed barley or malting barley?

Where do you farm, Tom?
I farm is southern Sask. and here we have little fusarium in barley and for that matter little barley in a normal year.