Canola stocks on farm are huge?

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Canola stocks on farm are huge?

SASKFARMER3's Avatar May 14, 2018 | 05:34 1 Yea like right.

StatsCan Confirms Heavy Canola Stocks
Statistics Canada has confirmed heavy old-crop canola stocks, with the bulk of those stocks still sitting in farm bins across the Prairies.
A StatsCan grain stocks report released on Friday pegged nationwide canola stocks as of March 31, 2018, at 9.07 million tonnes, up about 1.1 million tonnes or 14.4% from a year earlier and the heaviest March 31 canola stocks since 9.24 million tonnes in 2014. Traders and analysts were generally expecting canola stocks to be up from the previous year, with some guesses as much as 1.5 million tonnes above the March 31, 2017 level.
On-farm stocks of canola as of March 31, 2018, were up 18.2% from a year earlier to 7.5 million tonnes, also the heaviest since 2014 (7.88 million tonnes). In contrast, commercial stocks of canola actually declined, slipping 0.8% to 1.6 million tonnes.

Canadian canola stocks comfortable. New-crop uncertainty aside, canola supplies look to be comfortable for the remainder of the 2017-18 marketing year.

Basically, the industry is saying don't need to increase the price if it stays dry because we can keep buying for cheap till we really run out of the shit. So drought aside was going to get it for nothing. Enjoy your overpriced seed.

What are guys finding in their area? I would say bins are empty in ours with very little moving in June July period. Reply With Quote
May 14, 2018 | 05:46 2 Stats Can came out with a lower canola seeded ac number , so had to adjust things somehow lol Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER's Avatar May 14, 2018 | 05:56 3 Stats can gas one job


Makes no sure industryhas cheap seed! Reply With Quote
May 14, 2018 | 06:03 4 Old crop is being bid for the same or slightly more than last year at this time. There was a recent basis improvement for June delivery at the plant
New crop is around 50 cents better than last year at this time.


Until this dryness/drought problem in some areas resolves prices should hang in there. Some guys have locked the doors if they have some left. Might be a small crop Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER's Avatar May 14, 2018 | 06:16 5
Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
Stats can has one job


Makes sure industry has cheap seed!
Check it’s their mandate Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar May 14, 2018 | 06:35 6 Still have all ours but it is priced. How does Stats Can't see that?

There may be an insignificant amount left here as a cushion against over estimating contract tonnage.

Nexera with Lumiderm is stooped expensive. Partially paying for my premium... Reply With Quote
May 14, 2018 | 06:46 7 It's a sample size of one, but my canola bins are empty. Where as I normally carry 1/3 of the crop into summer. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER's Avatar May 14, 2018 | 07:23 8 We always carry half and this year we’re 25% left so a little funny. One large farm I talk to has lots but lotto max hit and the other is all done except 5 % Reply With Quote
May 14, 2018 | 11:38 9 F$&k there isnt a guy i know of around here with more that 10% left . What a joke ! We have 3000 bu unpriced, 5%. We will never know how small that crop really was . Wonder why theyre still paying 12 bucks here if there is so much in the bins ???????????????????
Last edited by caseih; May 14, 2018 at 12:11.
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May 14, 2018 | 13:39 10 I think there are decent stocks out there but not huge. Not sure how statscan got to that kind of an increase over last year.

It's gonna be a game of elevators trying to stretch what they have as far as they can. Which does have a tendency to happen fairly often with canola. Canola is the cash crop and sold first for a majority of farmers.

Watch the crush plants they don't like to risk much and will pay up if they see any sign of getting short. First half August delivery usually has a nice premium to it if you can make it work. Reply With Quote
May 15, 2018 | 10:37 11 Just had $11 trigger for #3 (high greens) yesterday and will deliver it today and by tomorrow the bins will be empty here. Normally carry half into summer but glad to have this nasty stuff gone. Most around here are empty as well. Reply With Quote
May 15, 2018 | 10:45 12 If canola stocks were that high the price would be at least $1 to $2 less for old crop.
Something don’t add up with that Reply With Quote
May 15, 2018 | 10:54 13 Evertime there is a drought on horizon the fake stats surface, or maybe I ‘ll rephrase it, ‘old’ stats. Its understandable that buyers would want to scoop up the last bit as cheaply as possible and this news would improve their position. Just what we noticed in 1980, 1986, 1988 too. Semms like the pipeline is full until it isn’t. Reply With Quote
May 15, 2018 | 10:58 14 If they overestimated 2017 production minus sales and shipments then ending stocks prooly not accurate, but who are we to say? Reply With Quote
May 15, 2018 | 18:30 15 canola is $12 here again today , nobody believes this stupid stats can report Reply With Quote
May 15, 2018 | 19:09 16 LOCK THE BINS.

Dust blowing here today like I’ve never seen before and we’re in “the wet zone”

The party is over on 50++ bushel canola in this area. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar May 15, 2018 | 21:18 17 Quad, is the land that's blowing the stuff that guys vertical tilled or just had to heavy harrow. The Apprentice was hauling wheat today and said a guy's land nearby was blowing as he was seeding.... but it looked like he heavy harrowed a bunch.... sometimes doing nothing is better than "something"..... adjust your sails!!!!! For fuck's sake!!! Reply With Quote
May 15, 2018 | 21:18 18 Where are you at Quadtrac? No dust blowing here. After last year, no one has blackened the fields. We learned a lesson last year. This year, we cut her in and sealed her up. Signed, sealed, now hope to deliver. Reply With Quote
May 16, 2018 | 06:55 19
Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
Where are you at Quadtrac? No dust blowing here. After last year, no one has blackened the fields. We learned a lesson last year. This year, we cut her in and sealed her up. Signed, sealed, now hope to deliver.
East Sask here.

Just harrowed this spring. Dust and straw blown off hills into lower areas and now the canola is 3 inches deep in straw and dust. What fun. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER's Avatar May 16, 2018 | 07:09 20 The wind reminds me of 1988 for F&&ks sake. It was dry that year bone dry Reply With Quote
May 16, 2018 | 07:38 21
Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER View Post
The wind reminds me of 1988 for F&&ks sake. It was dry that year bone dry
They 80’s were horrible but we never had 2 dry years back to back. Grasshoppers were a huge problem. We sat on the sprayer all summer. Reply With Quote
May 16, 2018 | 07:54 22
Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
They 80’s were horrible but we never had 2 dry years back to back. Grasshoppers were a huge problem. We sat on the sprayer all summer.
Yep I recall very well.

Grasshoppers are next. Reply With Quote
May 16, 2018 | 12:44 23 Not so bad here yet. No mosquitoes, thats nice
May long at the lake maybe, that would be a treat ! Reply With Quote
Partners's Avatar May 16, 2018 | 14:26 24 Will you be done by the weekend? Reply With Quote
May 16, 2018 | 16:14 25 Listened to Drew on ag radio. If his predictions are accurate it doesn’t bode terribly well going forward. There won’t be enough canola to fill too many ships and if the rail co can’t ship this years crop good fucking grief. Reply With Quote
May 16, 2018 | 16:57 26
Quote Originally Posted by Partners View Post
Will you be done by the weekend?
Pretty close i think. Goin good. Will have a quarter of borage that we will wait a little bit for . How about you ? Reply With Quote
Partners's Avatar May 16, 2018 | 18:24 27
Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
Pretty close i think. Goin good. Will have a quarter of borage that we will wait a little bit for . How about you ?
Will be at 75% by tonight.
Clouds dark to the north.hope it's raining on you. Reply With Quote
May 16, 2018 | 18:51 28 5 acres left and ran out of seed. Arghhhhh. Oh well 10 bushels on the Super B im done done in 1hr! Shes in! Rain you SonnofaB! Black as T's Ass to the west its gonna be close.
Last edited by biglentil; May 16, 2018 at 19:22.
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