MMM Wheat top been in?

[malleefarmer]

Beneficial rains in western Ukraine and southern Russia have occurred.. Except for early dryness in Australia, most of the world's wheat regions are doing well outside of North America, leading the International Grains Council to estimate a 2018-19 a slightly lower world wheat crop of 27.2 bb (739 mmt). Dow Jones' survey expects world wheat ending stocks to make a small drop, from 9.97 bb (271.3 mmt) in 2017-18 to 9.84 bb (267.7 mmt) in 2018-19. Again, the new-crop estimates provide a starting point in a discussion that has a long way to go. Here in the U.S., Dow Jones' survey expects U.S. wheat ending stocks to drop only slightly in 2018-19, from 1.07 bb in 2017-18 to 923 mb in 2018-19. Fundamentally, as long as most of the world's wheat regions appear to be doing well in 2018, it will be difficult for wheat prices to trade above last week's nine-month highs.

I sold wheat and barley two weeks ago at $290 currently still $280 for wheat but feed barley has fallen from $262 back to $245.

What are you guys thinking "guru farmaholic" feel to comment from sotg.

[farming101]

Not the Guru but I will chime in.

It's too early to call. NA wheat has lots of time to put in a lousy showing.

For example, winter wheat condition in the US is reportedly 37% poor or very poor. Last year it was 15.
Old crop may have possibly seen a top. But even there, ZWN18 just came off a nine month high. Nothing to say it can't go back to that level again

[malleefarmer]

markets seem more concerned about black sea russia nowadays but the fact is majority of wheat price of usa exchanges

[malleefarmer]

USDA’s 2018 all-wheat production estimates for the U.S. is now at 1.821 billion bushels – a net gain of 800 million bushels over the agency’s 2017/18 production numbers.

Globally, 2017/18 wheat ending stocks declined slightly from USDA April estimates of 9.965 billion bushels to 9.937 billion bushels.


Wheat export sales only mustered 3.1 million bushels in old crop and new crop sales last week, down 85% from the prior week’s totals and 76% below the prior four-week average. Trade estimates of 16.5 million bushels were overly optimistic.

Wheat export shipments of 11.9 million bushels managed 14% higher than the prior week’s totals but remain 27% below the prior four-week average. Japan was the No. 1 destination, with 3.3 million bushels.

Ukraine’s 2017/18 grain exports are down around 8% year over year so far. Totals to-date include 569.5 million bushels of wheat and another 590.5 million bushels of corn.

South Africa’s final 2017 wheat production fell to 56.4 million bushels, 20% below 2016 totals.

Japan purchased 3.5 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Australia in a regular tender that closed Thursday. Almost two-thirds of the total was U.S.-sourced western white, dark northern spring and hard red winter wheat.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 113,311 CBOT contracts, up slightly from Wednesday’s final count of 101,354.