Speaking of drought...

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Speaking of drought...

Feb 11, 2018 | 21:37 1 I have seen some saying they had got plenty or too much snow already - does this interactive map reflect the reality in your area? Looking scarily dry over a large area at the moment.

http://maps.canada.ca/journal/content-en.html?lang=en&appid=5e29f118382949fca59f83028f17 c41e&appidalt=95a6f2929493451b9a65d23008985a9d Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Feb 11, 2018 | 21:43 2 Tried c/p the link but comes up blank... Reply With Quote
Feb 11, 2018 | 21:49 3
Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
Tried c/p the link but comes up blank...
That's weird, sometimes works sometimes doesn't. Just Google "Canada Drought Monitor" and you'll be able to access it. Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Feb 11, 2018 | 21:50 4
Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
That's weird, sometimes works sometimes doesn't. Just Google "Canada Drought Monitor" and you'll be able to access it.
Snow pack? Or subsoil moisture? Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Feb 11, 2018 | 21:53 5 As Brad says....hope beats fear. But the market won't react until it's too late for Us. Or another good reason for the prices not to rise is "because the dryness is already factored in".... lol. "That's nice" Mrs Brown(furrow lol)
Last edited by farmaholic; Feb 11, 2018 at 22:06.
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helmsdale's Avatar Feb 11, 2018 | 22:10 6 Shows us as white bordering on yellow. Subsoil moisture grew last year's crop and there really hasn't been anything significant since. Snow pack is low. Conditions are probably closer to long range average than they have been last 15 years. Reply With Quote
Feb 11, 2018 | 22:10 7
Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
Snow pack? Or subsoil moisture?
This was the graphic.



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farmaholic's Avatar Feb 11, 2018 | 22:28 8 We're in the middle of the bullseye! It's the unbroken trend that has me defecating bricks here....and without subsoil moisture they're passing sideways!

Maybe by July Trudeau's ProPot legislation will have me singing "don't worry, be happy". Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 04:54 9 One good Easter 3-day storm can change everything Farmaholic. We'll get on our knees and pray to the climate-change gods 😎 Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Feb 12, 2018 | 06:56 10
Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
One good Easter 3-day storm can change everything Farmaholic. We'll get on our knees and pray to the climate-change gods 😎
Hope beats fear but denial is foolhardy Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 07:57 11 Climate change will bring you a big spring storm. Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 08:01 12 We are in a “moderate drought zone”. No it is not accurate. We are sitting very nice. Lots of snow, decent fall moisture. My question, is this map based on comparisons of the last 15 years or is this a longer time frame? For us, compared to the last 15 years, yes it is drier, but finally, and happily. If I compare it to longer term usual moisture levels, we would be right on normal.

I do hope it stops snowing, or the wet cycle could take off again. Should have a normal runoff at this point. Bad news is that half our snow comes in feb and March...hope that doesn’t happen!

In our area, the last growing season, and this winter, have been the closest to normal that I have seen, since the last great year of 2003. For us, that is good. I do know that we probably have about the most snow cover anywhere in the province from what I can see. It does look concerning in most areas.

Story of my life. I diversify into sheep,partly because of the last 15 hideous grain growing years, and now, I suppose the drier, more productive years are back! Lol
Last edited by Sheepwheat; Feb 12, 2018 at 08:09.
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Feb 12, 2018 | 08:09 13
Quote Originally Posted by Sheepwheat View Post
We are in a “moderate drought zone”. No it is not accurate. We are sitting very nice. Lots of snow, decent fall moisture. My question, is this map based on comparisons of the last 15 years or is this a longer time frame? For us, compared to the last 15 years, yes it is drier, but finally, and happily. If I compare it to longer term usual moisture levels, we would be right on normal.

I do hope it stops snowing, or the wet cycle could take off again. Should have a normal runoff at this point. Bad news is that half our snow comes in feb and March...hope that doesn’t happen!

In our area, the last growing season, and this winter, have been the closest to normal that I have seen, since the last great year of 2003. For us, that is good. I do know that we probably have about the most snow cover anywhere in the province from what I can see. It does look concerning in most areas.
we are the same mod. drought , we were very dry all summer but froze up wet and have a lot of snow here now . very , very cold all winter though and the wind never stops which is odd for this country ? Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 08:13 14
Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
we are the same mod. drought , we were very dry all summer but froze up wet and have a lot of snow here now . very , very cold all winter though and the wind never stops which is odd for this country ?
Yeah cold and windy for sure. Minus 36 this morning. I do not remember if the good old days were windy or not? Definitely been more wind than usual, especially windy AND cold. Sheep spending far more time bedded in the bush than the last several winters. Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 08:15 15
Quote Originally Posted by grassfarmer View Post
This was the graphic.



That red circle should be a lot bigger.
Need 2-2.5 ft of heavy wet, and 2 inch rain. We should then have good germination. Might be asking for a lot but may as well go all in. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Feb 12, 2018 | 08:29 16 I don't know why I even talk about this crap but it is just stating a fact.....with the snow we have now, it would only take a few short days of warm spring weather to melt most of it.

Time will tell, time is going by but it would only take a good spring rain to restore optimism
Last edited by farmaholic; Feb 12, 2018 at 08:37.
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Feb 12, 2018 | 08:35 17 Yep situation is ugly dry. Cutting way back on canola acres and inputs. Sticking $60/acre blue seeds into powder that goes 8ft deep. Like hello Mcfly wake up Mr. input dealer. Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 08:52 18 Still have the luxury of hope and denial at this date Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 08:53 19 So is this pattern more normal, prior to the last twelve or so years in most areas, or is it exceptional? If more normal, we had it coming, no? Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Feb 12, 2018 | 09:09 20
Quote Originally Posted by Sheepwheat View Post
So is this pattern more normal, prior to the last twelve or so years in most areas, or is it exceptional? If more normal, we had it coming, no?
Seems drier than "normal" for us here. I usually took solace in the fact we were always able to pull something off. But since our last dry spell, inputs and risk is much higher now than then. But when others were too wet, things were pretty darn good here, we had the odd year on our farm that was challenging but nothing like what some other people faced, and you didn't have to go much further east it was alot tougher yet, between accumulated standing water and hard to work in field conditions.

Maybe it's someone else's turn to have good luck. I'll play the hand I'm dealt the best i can. Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 10:19 21
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Seems drier than "normal" for us here. I usually took solace in the fact we were always able to pull something off. But since our last dry spell, inputs and risk is much higher now than then. But when others were too wet, things were pretty darn good here, we had the odd year on our farm that was challenging but nothing like what some other people faced, and you didn't have to go much further east it was alot tougher yet, between accumulated standing water and hard to work in field conditions.

Maybe it's someone else's turn to have good luck. I'll play the hand I'm dealt the best i can.
Is it safe to say that after so many wet years, all of us have an unrealistic sense of what normal actually is? Much of the prairies is after all considered semi-arid. A return to more long term conditions would be a shock not only to us producers but also to the entire supply chain. Perhaps higher production in these anomalous wet years are what stops industry from investing in export infrastructure, when it may all be a distant memory in due time.

I'm with Sheepwheat, praying for a return to normal dryer conditions. At least until it actually stops raining for months on end as it did the past three years, then I quickly forget the horrors of drowning crops. Reply With Quote
Feb 12, 2018 | 14:01 22 Sheepwheat, not sure how many year's data this is based on but the classifications of drought beside the image describe them in terms of how often they happen - hence the red area is extreme drought that usually happens only every 20-25 years, the next severest colour occurs every 10-20 years, the next every 5-10 years and the yellow reflects a once every 3-5 years occurrence. It's a worrying picture but of course is just a shot in time - we could well have a wet spring or summer in many areas. Time will tell. Reply With Quote