Where Will Shrinking Pulse Acreage Go In 2018?

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Where Will Shrinking Pulse Acreage Go In 2018?

SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 12, 2018 | 07:15 1 Canadian pulse seeded area will likely be down significantly in 2018 because neither prices nor demand are likely to improve soon, says a post on producer.com.
That raises the question of where the former pulse acres go. For many, it will likely mean more canola area, and that raises worries about disease pressure.
Pulse area surged in the past few years as production problems in India and developing demand from China created opportunities for new sales.
Total area for the two crops climbed to a little more than 10 million acres in 2016, up almost four million from just three years before.

So where will Canadian farmers go.
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Well by the amount of people not just taking pails from input Capital but standing around and talking
i would say were in for way more Canola Acres.

Sad some have spent so much money that in a down turn they will go to extreme measures to save their farm.

But the additional acreage doesn't scare me. Seed sales don't reflect the extra acreage. So are guys who are in a pickle going to brown bag. Ah the seed police will be around im guessing lots this summer. Big thing is the low moisture that we have got since last December. Thats the limiting factor.

Canola needs a nice seed bed to get it going and if your bone dry and start spring that way the seed will sit and sit and sit with a odd one germinating then maybe if you get one rain in June it will start growing and then probably it will freeze come fall.

so big acreage in Canada i cant see really doing any thing but maybe have a lower start fall price.

Now the big thing that scares me so far is the Idiot American farmers who have really shitty winter wheat that most likely crop insurance down their will write it off. These guys will seed soy on that ground and also so on most ground they have bigger costs than canadian farmers and are in deeper shit. Corn acreage will be down.

So is this setting up to be a year like oh so many in the 90s Prices for seed fert and all inputs up because the USA farmer is spending and in Canada we grow a average to below average crop with piss poor prices.

If im calling how the year will go that is the scenario im thinking will be the final 2018 story.

Time will tell but definitely Canola acres are on the way up.

Now Im thinking south of number one it will be what crops insurance pays best on so Durum, Canola, and lentils.
Mid sask it will be traditional Wheat Canola Barley and Peas and soy.

In North it will be Canola and Oats and soy and barley.

What are others thinking.
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For our farm it looks like half wheat and half Canola. Pea seed will be cleaned but not sure we will grow and barley will be cleaned but malt sucks so maybe won't grow. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 12, 2018 | 07:40 2 Now Argentina area of Cordoba has been dry and is getting dryer. Its a area to watch but Brazil and rest is doing ok with moisture. We need a wreck some where fast and not in Canada for once. Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Jan 12, 2018 | 07:49 3 Don't read too much into Cordoba perspective from Canada.


Report this am from Agrovoz translated to English for y'all.

Agrovoz is their version of Grain news.

Agrovoz
Despite the lack of water, the summer crops continue their development with good general condition in the province of Córdoba, according to a report distributed Wednesday by the Bolsa de Cereales de Córdoba (BCCBA), with data corresponding to the second fortnight of December 2017.

The synthesis of the situation table by crop is the following:

Soy. No change compared to the first fortnight of December, and with incidence of hydric and thermal stress, 93 percent of the estimated 4,150,700 hectares to be implemented are between "good" and "very good" general state.

Corn. 52 percent of early corn is going through the critical period, at which time the number of grains is determined, the most important variable in the definition of yield. Water stress, in medium and high incidence, negatively impacted the crop, which increases the "good" and "regular" condition of the crop by 13 points.

Sorghum. The 35 percent is close to flowering, at which time the potential number of grains will be defined.

Sunflower. 60 percent is in a critical period, beginning to define the potential number of flowers.


Climate context

Thanks to the rains registered towards the end of December, the reserve of useful soil water increased slightly to moderately in the center, south and southeast of the province.

According to the Office of Agricultural Risk (ORA), useful water reserves for early planting maize are scant to regular throughout the province, with the exception of the southeast, which are at adequate and / or optimal levels.

Cultivation by cultivation

Of the 4,150,700 hectares estimated to be implemented with soybean in the 2017/18 season, 49 percent (2,033,800 hectares) corresponds to plantings

early (planted until November 15).

82 percent are in a vegetative state, while 18 percent have started flowering. The totality of the late soybean (planted after November 15) is going through its first stages.

Although there were cases of thermal stress (low to medium incidence) in the north of the province and water stress in the central and southern departments (low to medium incidence), the general condition did not vary from the previous fortnight, concentrating 93 percent of the crop between "good" and "very good".

Because the water requirements until flowering are low, medium intensity stress would not produce yield reductions.

In the departments Presidente Roque Sáenz Peña and Juárez Celman the presence, in low incidence, of the cutter caterpillar complex -Agrotis malefida Guen., Porosagrotis gypaetina (Guenée), Agrotis εilon Hufnagel and Peridroma saucia Hübner- was reported, causing damage to the roots , underground part of the stem and seedlings.

In the departments of the center of the province, there was a low incidence of Oruga Bolillera (Helicoverpa Gelotopoeon) and "Vaquita defoliator" (Megascelis sp); as well as Tucura (genera Dichroplus, Tropinotus and Rhammatocerus) in medium and high incidence.

Only in the Union department was the presence of Brown Spot (Septoria Glycines) causing foliar lesions.


Corn

Of the estimated 2,393,800 hectares to be planted in the 2017/18 season, 33 percent (782,600 hectares) corresponds to early plantings, that is, planted before November 1. 48 percent of them are phenologically in a vegetative state (up to 10 developed leaves), while the remaining 52 percent is passing through the critical period, which is located 15 days before and 15 days after flowering. In this stage is when the number of grains is determined, the most important variable in the definition of performance.

Events of high temperatures (absolute maximum), such as those recorded on December 16 and 17, added to the scarce water reserves in the soil, can produce floral abortions, and negatively influence the development of the crop.

According to the National Meteorological Service (SMN), at the country level, 2017 has been the hottest year in history, surpassing the 2012 mark.

Late maize (planted after November 1) is in its first stages of growth with a maximum of two developed leaves.

The scarcity of rainfall in the second half of December had a negative impact on the crop, mainly on early maize due to its higher water requirement. Compared to the previous fortnight, the percentage that is in "good" and "fair" condition increased 13 points, to the detriment of "very good". The cause of this deterioration in the general state was the hydric and thermal stress (medium and high incidence) that was evident throughout the province.

With regard to pests and diseases, there was a generalized presence, in low incidence, of the leafworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) affecting seedlings and causing defoliation, as well as Roya (Puccinia Sorghi), also in mild incidence, generating lesions foliar

Sorghum

Of the 113,200 hectares planted with sorghum throughout the province, 65 percent have five visible leaves or less, while the remaining 35 percent is close to flowering, at which time the potential number of grains is defined.

The most advanced phenological departments are San Justo and Unión.

Sunflower

60 percent of the sunflower in the province of Córdoba is in a critical period, beginning to define the potential number of flowers. It lasts approximately 50 days and is located between phases R2 and R6 (full flowering).

The most backward departments are located in the south of the province, while the most advanced ones are located in the center and northeast of Córdoba.

Water in December

In most departments, the rainfall of December 2017 was higher than last year and the historical average of the last 10 years, except in the extreme north and south of the province. They were registered towards the end of the month, managing to improve the stress situation that crops were expressing.

This is evident in the maps of useful water of the National Meteorological Service (SMN), where a slight to moderate improvement can be observed in the situation of drought that has been registered in the province, mainly in the departments of the center, south and southeast; increasing reserve levels by 10 to 40 points compared to the first 10 days of the last month.

Another map shows water reserves in the soil for early sow maize, taking into account the water requirements.

Taking into account the phenological state in which the early maize is found, the requirements are considerably higher and that a water deficit would produce a smaller number of grains and therefore, a lower yield.

As can be seen, only the southeast of the province has adequate and / or optimal reserves to cover this need, while the rest of the province has regular reserves, scarce and even drought.
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farmaholic's Avatar Jan 12, 2018 | 08:05 4 .....one Black Swan swims or flies by and best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

How many real options do we each have in our own cropping district? ....and weather conditions suitable for one crop are not suitable for another.

Heed some of the signals, strong and weak, but if you want to gamble against the odds it just might pay if no one else wants to.

As I said before, we will maintain a semblance of our ususal rotation with some tweaking of course.

Spring moisture conditions will have a huge bearing this year. We have no buffer/reserve and without a bit of a recharge....shallow seeded crops may establish so poorly it may not be worth seeding them.

.....or it may not stop raining!

What does Kinger say....or I may be wrong...50/50 either way. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 12, 2018 | 08:15 5 The one good thing for the guys on the east side of Saskatchewan and Manitoba is the last storm was a montana low that brought the ice rain on wednesday. So maybe just maybe its changing to the old days. Not flood years but before the floods.

Like i said earlier its Wheat and Canola for us as we can grow these crops but 800/400 peas would come off the Canola acres if price for fall improves to even $7.00. And 800/400 of Barley will come off the wheat acres if price signal improves by spring.

These are swing acres on our farm as Lentils are a dud and chick peas suck and soy well its like JT just not ready for the disappointment. Reply With Quote
Jan 12, 2018 | 08:48 6 Will see some guys making drastic changes but most guys can't switch pulses that easily.

Will see more chickpeas and large green lentils at the expense of small reds.

Durum/Spring Wheat/Barley will be up as well at the cost of lentil and canola acres.

You can only push rotation so much but even saying that there is a larger than usual part of most guys farms that could be switched between now and seeding.

Or it rains and everything changes again. It's January 12th. Lots of time between now and seeding for things to happen. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 12, 2018 | 08:53 7 But again i think guys are borrowed to the hilt and have to pay for all that shit some way and thats why the free pails booth is so busy. Rotation is getting thrown under the bus. Smart farmers are still trying but the BTOs are out to save the farm.

Time will tell and yes its only the 12th of jan but the weather pattern has only started to change and dont expect the west side to be a abundance of moisture. I think that boat has sailed and were back to normal. Reply With Quote
ajl
Jan 12, 2018 | 09:22 8 The only hope is that it stays dry so the switch is on to chemfallow. 25 million acres of canola is in the bag, the hope is that it isn't 30. Nothing else to do. 80's are back Reply With Quote
Jan 12, 2018 | 09:51 9 Is it the cold that brings the whiners all in at once? Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jan 12, 2018 | 10:08 10
Quote Originally Posted by tweety View Post
Is it the cold that brings the whiners all in at once?
Welcome in. Reply With Quote
Jan 12, 2018 | 10:15 11 A few years of sub 30 canola yields outside the good old canola regions, will change things. A dozen years of abnormal rainfall, does not an average make, imho. Reply With Quote
Jan 12, 2018 | 12:31 12 Lots of guys backing out and wanting to return 15 bucks a bushel pea seed. And I mean lots of it!!!
Can't be charging that when peas are 6 and it
Looks like further countries being narrow minded see that our people
Aren't doing a damn thing to retaliate or negotiate so just watch more countries come on board to shut the door. Won't even be the dog food market.
Watch feed barley become not even worth the fuel to grow. Reply With Quote
Jan 12, 2018 | 12:47 13 Some interesting figures from this year's Sask crop planning guide.
Puts break-even price to cover total expense as follows-
Canola in brown soil zone $7.86 per bushel, dark brown zone $8.57 and black zone $8.77.
Yields are based on crop insurance five year average.
Might be prudent for those on brown soils to look at longer term averages.
Spring wheat is reverse with lowest break even price in black zone. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 12, 2018 | 15:50 14 Must be based on a drought and crop insurance in the brown zone. Reply With Quote
Jan 13, 2018 | 08:18 15 If moisture starts coming in the south, and it better, canola will go in ahead of peas. Lentils will still go in, but with low pea prices going forward farmers will go with canola. Moisture will decide what happens. At the crop show many told me they aren’t in any hurry to book canola seed. It’s a wait and see attitude. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 13, 2018 | 08:38 16 I agree its a wait and see with Canola. Seeding small seeds into dry ground doesn't work it sits and will be blue till fall if no moisture comes.

I think something is changing in the jet stream but still not seeing the moisture for the south or west like it was for 15 years. I honestly think were heading back to normal.

25 canola in south and west and 40 in east and north and Manitoba higher plus northern Alberta. The days of 60 plus in the south and west was a dream. but the plant is a plant and it cant produce with out moisture and not extreme temps. The seed guides and reps can tell you its superior plant genetics but thats bullshit. Reply With Quote
Jan 13, 2018 | 12:32 17
Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER3 View Post
I agree its a wait and see with Canola. Seeding small seeds into dry ground doesn't work it sits and will be blue till fall if no moisture comes.

I think something is changing in the jet stream but still not seeing the moisture for the south or west like it was for 15 years. I honestly think were heading back to normal.

25 canola in south and west and 40 in east and north and Manitoba higher plus northern Alberta. The days of 60 plus in the south and west was a dream. but the plant is a plant and it cant produce with out moisture and not extreme temps. The seed guides and reps can tell you its superior plant genetics but thats bullshit.
If we ever go back to the drying trend of the 90’s coupled with a decade of poor prices that will cut the sails of lots of us. If we didn’t have cattle in those days. Could rent anything for $25. It’s shaping up for a repeat. Reply With Quote
BFW
Jan 13, 2018 | 12:38 18 with all the corn coming in to feed livestock a few more acres of barley might be in order. Reply With Quote
Jan 13, 2018 | 17:44 19
Quote Originally Posted by BFW View Post
with all the corn coming in to feed livestock a few more acres of barley might be in order.
Really? Fuckers never want to pay anything for it hence they bring in corn. Aside from places that are good barley areas the rest are better off growing wheat. I like barley for the soil but not for the bottom line. Reply With Quote
Jan 14, 2018 | 10:40 20 Sask planning guide yields would seem to be based on adequate or even surplus moisture most of us have had past few years.
Like SF3 and many others, our present plan is for half cereals and half canola.
Have not been growing pulse crop past few years so do not worry about that.
Dry slough bottoms and little snow could indicate a dry year but expect to seed all the acres we can.
Futures prices still high enough to cover expected yields from a modestly dryer year. Reply With Quote
Jan 14, 2018 | 17:14 21 Still FAR more Profit in 16 cent lentils than in 11 dollar canola . Saskfarmer here in SW Sask ,canola is just a rotational crop, if you make a profit that's a bonus Reply With Quote