Trumps NAFTA strategy

Commodity Marketing

Tools

Trumps NAFTA strategy

Jan 10, 2018 | 22:07 1 I think the strategy for Trump has been and will be: “sure, we can have NAFTA – if it looks like this, this, and this, including no China pass-through fraud.”

Those positions will be broadcast, and will sound reasonable to the average American. But since they change the relation from Canada or Mexico exploiting us, there will be no big advantage for NAFTA for either of them, anymore. [I am sure NAFTA got in place in the first place because it had a bunch of sweetheart deals for congressmen.]

Canada and Mexico will see the deal on the table, and will themselves walk away.

This advance notice is
1. to set people’s expectations for the eventual non-renewal
2. help the economic shock be spread out, in Mex and CA.
3. try to spin it to make it look like Trump ended it all, not Canada or Mexico.

Thoughts? Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Jan 10, 2018 | 22:16 2
Quote Originally Posted by macdon02 View Post
I think the strategy for Trump has been and will be: “sure, we can have NAFTA – if it looks like this, this, and this, including no China pass-through fraud.”

Those positions will be broadcast, and will sound reasonable to the average American. But since they change the relation from Canada or Mexico exploiting us, there will be no big advantage for NAFTA for either of them, anymore. [I am sure NAFTA got in place in the first place because it had a bunch of sweetheart deals for congressmen.]

Canada and Mexico will see the deal on the table, and will themselves walk away.

This advance notice is
1. to set people’s expectations for the eventual non-renewal
2. help the economic shock be spread out, in Mex and CA.
3. try to spin it to make it look like Trump ended it all, not Canada or Mexico.

Thoughts?

After that idiotic stunt Canada pulled today taking the us to the WTO on behalf of other countries... I don't think anybody in Ottawa has a clue. Ffks.


If there is no NAFTA china has no reason to trade with us anymore. They already stopped investment here.


Not to mention it will bring on the collapse of our efnomy and possibly very high inflation Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2018 | 22:31 3 I don't fully understand NAFTA other than milk, feathers and soft wood lumber, what are the other trade irritants. We all looked at the high prices the us was paying for grain and got rid of the CWB thinking we was going to clean up, how has that worked ?? The supply managed sector is raping the Canadian populist much like the oil workers did Si personally I feel its a time for roll back on prices. Reply With Quote
Jan 10, 2018 | 23:10 4 China is not slowing investment. It just is being hidden better. You think there weren't a bunch of full pockets over that GTH deal. There's shit going on there that would make you cringe. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jan 11, 2018 | 07:00 5 Big wheel give up on the GTA already thats a dead horse.

This thing JT did yesterday is totally idiotic. But look who is running the country a total group of morons.

Horse their is more to this than feathers etc.

Its huge and we have sent a mouse to do a battle with a whole heard of elephants.

Our idiot hasn't got a clue.

But peace love and free dope and all is good. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 07:56 6 Can't believe we are trying to be ambassadors dor the rest of the world. The claims from Canada on US trade issues are not beneficial to us. Our government is creating a wake of damage that is going to effect everyone in this country that sells product to US. LIBERALS ARE QUIETLY DESTROYING CANADA Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 08:02 7 What would your approach be to renegotiating NAFTA with the US given that they are so much larger and have always been the bully in the room on this issue and now captained by an unstable lunatic? You don't seem to approve of yesterday's move which in my view was a counter threat to demonstrate that we have some power. What should Canada's approach be? roll over and play dead, fight a tactical battle or give up on it completely? Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jan 11, 2018 | 08:08 8 I would bet some of the biggest negotiations some of the members of our trade delegations were ever involved in were who was going to wash or dry the dishes and who is going to clean the bathroom or sweep/vacuum the floors.....AT HOME. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 08:12 9 I don't understand the softwood lumber thing....the US can buy Canadian lumber but instead makes it more expensive?



Same with peas lentils and chickpeas in india. At 25 cents they were called cheap imports so they raise the price domestically....

Isn't that self defeating inflation?


But a better question is why can't our governments of any stripe just say to India and the states ....we are not accepting your imports?

Well other than we are only 30 million people and don't matter... Reply With Quote
ajl
Jan 11, 2018 | 08:21 10 The reason there won't be a deal is too many people in Canuckistan think like grass here. The US is the bully so we don't take there concern seriously. The dairy issue is a legitimate complaint after the stunt that Dairy farmer of Ontario did over ultra filtered milk. We all know that back dooring goes on as lots of Canadians list their occupation as the import/export business. What is that exactly? The Trump administration has to deal with enough children in the US. I would have just terminated NAFTA and not bothered with the dog and pony show. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 08:21 11 The softwood deal is over stumpage fees, I don't know the exact details but it's due to most lumber in Canada coming off crown lands and most US coming off private. Our govt doesn't charge as much for tree removal as private citizens so in the eyes of the US it's a subsidy. Plus knock off the currency difference which causes most trade irritants and that's the issues. They are protecting made in USA industry because that's the hand that feeds them. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 08:26 12 What I find pathetic is the Canadian govt sees more mileage in a wto complaint over a dying industry (paper) then standing up to India over food. But after watching the pipeline show I'm starting to wonder if exports are even a priority? You can't pay the bills by saving the world. I think Brett Wilson had it right yesterday on BNN Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 08:36 13 Trump is not a free trader. Protectionism has returned. The US as always acted in its own self interest on trade. That is why they want to get rid of the NAFTA dispute resolution mechanism, if not all of NAFTA.

I am sure when various ag commodity groups in the US convince Trump to impose duties on Canadian imports and our prices fall it will all be Trudeaus fault. LOL

Some of you need to take off your hyper partisan, pro Trump blinders and start standing up for Canada! Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 08:50 14 Sadly we elect people to represent Canada but instead of having critical thinking skills we have self absorbed people looking after their own interests on every political stripe. ... Reply With Quote
ajl
Jan 11, 2018 | 09:03 15 Here is a plan. Offer the US that they can export 3x as much dairy products to Canada tariff free in exchange for dropping softwood lumber tariffs. That would not be standing up for Canada according to people like Chuck, which is why there won't be a deal. That, however, is how adults negotiate. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 09:14 16 The NAFTA Renegotiation:
What if the US Walks Away?

From The CD Howe Institute
https://www.cdhowe.org/sites/default/files/attachments/research_papers/mixed/Working%20Paper%201128%20web.pdf


"The most affected agricultural sector is beef.
Exports drop by more than $500 million (although
this might vary depending on how Canadian
exporters fare under US MFN beef quotas). While
Canadian beef producers would capture some of the
Canadian domestic market share left by declining
NAFTA imports, the modelling results suggest
that total sales would still fall appreciably. “Other
agricultural products”, which include a variety
of other crops, fare similarly, with the decline in
domestic demand compounding an overall decline
in exports. Dairy also experiences a fairly significant
decline in sales, entirely due to lower domestic
demand." Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 09:24 17
Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
Here is a plan. Offer the US that they can export 3x as much dairy products to Canada tariff free in exchange for dropping softwood lumber tariffs. That would not be standing up for Canada according to people like Chuck, which is why there won't be a deal. That, however, is how adults negotiate.
What would be the economic impact on the dairy and newsprint sectors and how do we know that would be a good deal? Unless you have the numbers then it is hard to decide. That is why we have professional negotiators who understand the issues. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 09:34 18 I don't know but paying a buck for 4 liters of milk might be OK. ..

It's funny we pay world prices of everything and then factor in our dollar value it's insane but when the prices in the states are considerably lower for similar products .....that never factors into the world price?


Why is that? Reply With Quote
ajl
Jan 11, 2018 | 09:36 19 I agree, we need professional negotiators. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 10:09 20 Whether we have a written agreement or not trade will still happen. To assume the border will slam shut is ridiculous. Will things continue as is no. There's way too much fear getting sold that life will end. We weren't even the target that Trump the had gun on until Ottawa jumped up and said look at me. This will boil down to trade on items that we have that they don't. If it can be made in USA that's where they'll source it. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 10:12 21 Which explains why Brandt is getting a foothold in the states....and is an easy price increase as well for their products....

We have fools running this country. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 10:12 22 Potash will move south and phosphate north. Car parts..... Not so much Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 10:57 23 Even if Trump gives written 6-month notice to abandon NAFTA, it may not happen. Loss of NAFTA would be a big hit to the American Midwest (Trump's voter heartland) . . . and mid-terms are coming up in November. U.S. companies would be hit by increased costs. This has to get through Congress . . . .

More talk-the-talk, then walk-the-walk (IMO) . . . . Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 12:07 24 I maintain that the NAFTA issue is more about telling the masses what they want to hear, than any practical application. Who honestly believes that a socialist overtaxed, and over regulated could sparsely populated country is taking jobs away from the US? But it plays well with his base, and will continue to until the next election. Reply With Quote
ajl
Jan 11, 2018 | 13:06 25 I don't understand why the end of NAFTA would hurt the US midwest. Generally the US benefits from trade restriction and they know it. I know a lot of processed food in imported from the US midwest into Canada but other than car parts what else do they export here? Car parts would still move like today because it is largely an exchange trade anyways. Linnamar has production facilities in the US already (make the Harvestec corn head) so they can move MacDon down there. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 16:36 26
Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
I don't understand why the end of NAFTA would hurt the US midwest. Generally the US benefits from trade restriction and they know it. I know a lot of processed food in imported from the US midwest into Canada but other than car parts what else do they export here? Car parts would still move like today because it is largely an exchange trade anyways. Linnamar has production facilities in the US already (make the Harvestec corn head) so they can move MacDon down there.
John Deere, CNH, Agco, Monsanto are a few familiar names from the midwest that do a little business in Canada Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Jan 11, 2018 | 21:56 27
Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
John Deere, CNH, Agco, Monsanto are a few familiar names from the midwest that do a little business in Canada
Deere and agco wouldn't give a shit. Neither would Monsanto.


Monsanto has Canadian headquarters. So does cnh in Saskatoon.


Deere and agco charge you 5% more for duties and away you go. Reply With Quote
Jan 11, 2018 | 22:00 28 US exports to NAFTA countries

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/nafta-by-commodity-and-by-state-in-2016?utm_source=Market+Intel+Subscribers&utm_campa ign=0c7e3413cd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_11&utm_medium=email&utm_ter m=0_8791233023-0c7e3413cd-260808397 Reply With Quote
Jan 12, 2018 | 06:29 29
Quote Originally Posted by ajl View Post
I agree, we need professional negotiators.
Oh don't worry, we have sent our best negotiators - our very best SJW's! Bargaining for non-gender labeled bathrooms...

Sock boy and tear-lady, surely they are more than qualified to talk business with a group of business sharks...

We're screwed and it's going to hurt a lot more than is advertised. China objected to having another nation tamper with their sovereignty and the US does too. How strange.

That's an unpopular approach when you're a superpower, let alone a relative nobody.


http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john...#comments-area Reply With Quote