Colza.... AKA Canola

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Colza.... AKA Canola

Klause's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 18:30 1 This is something we need to watch... Canola was "our" crop...

well... not anymore.

http://geadecolon.com.ar/informe-sob...vo-de-colza-2/

and






Acres have been doubling in Entre Rios and Buenos Aires every year... since 2008 they went from 8000 HA to just under 100,000 Ha. Weed control and a high value (460 - 500 USD) price is pushing more and more canola into their winter rotations with INTA pushing it hard.

Yield wise they went from less than 20 to over 40 bpa average in a very short time... High nutrition and worked fields combined with an extremely long (plant in fall not winter) season and cool (16-22C) flowering temperatures means the plants thrive...


Not a real export threat yet... but considering the amount of money China is investing in Argentina, their agriculture, and their freight and shipping networks... This could become a problem for us... Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 18:41 2 Any country that invests in infrastructure will kick our ass....70 mmt crop with a handling infrastructure barely able to move 35mmt....it's stupid....can't continue to build bins on farm ....the storage should be at a moveable position.....


I said this a while back ....an inland terminal in BC that would be able to shuttle during cold or mountain weather between BC and the prairies...let's start with a 5 million tonne facilty
Last edited by bucket; Dec 5, 2017 at 18:45.
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Klause's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 18:53 3
Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
Any country that invests in infrastructure will kick our ass....70 mmt crop with a handling infrastructure barely able to move 35mmt....it's stupid....can't continue to build bins on farm ....the storage should be at a moveable position.....


I said this a while back ....an inland terminal in BC that would be able to shuttle during cold or mountain weather between BC and the prairies...let's start with a 5 million tonne facilty


We'll need some sort of infrastructure vision...


This is what we are competing with... Rob Saik knows...




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Dec 5, 2017 | 19:14 4 We should be trucking to the west coast by the end of the decade....then we can say we caught up to Argentina. ...absolutely senseless....but what do we hear ....crickets! !!!!????? Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 19:16 5 Why don't we all just fucking pack it in already.you read so much about how we can't compete you start to believe it. Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 19:59 6 Crosses my mind everyday.....

I watched g3 build their new plant and the other majors wouldn't even update their facilties at unload....


They all say they are doing better ....well of course they are.... they each lost a turn on their elevators. ....

And things have backed up from the coast to the prairies....on purpose.... Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 21:02 7 I have a sick feeling , and believe 90% of us are fuked going forward if we continue to try the world export game in commodity grains . Carbon tax is coming regardless what we believe or hear . That can and will eat up to 50% of our net profits . Our cost and inefficiency of transportation to markets is making us obsolete, just re read what Dave said a few posts ago , all those transportation costs will only keep going up. When the simple transportation costs are higher than the pit prices ... it’s game over . Big farming inputs are on a one way ticket to the moon . Check grain/ oilseed / pulse prices to historic values and relate that to inflation... it’s a dead end . Even the biggest most efficient farms will eventually stumble if things continue as they are here in Canada .
Add that to skyrocketing land prices .... I see a crash again on most farms if we continue to go status quo regardless of farm size . Even for the most conservative basic family farm , run the numbers , then add on the environmental cost that’s about to be passed on to the lowest guy on the totem pole ... it’s you and I .
Everyone in Ag is milking the cow too much , it’s going to be dry ... soon .
I live and breathe Ag , but see a suffocating situation ahead.
Too many hands in too shallow of pockets, too far from commercial markets.
Without a strong bio fuels mandate and far more in depth local processing environment, even to an on farm basis, there is little if any hope for commercial grain farms looking forward 5-10 years.
Klause knows this and is trying in the right direction. We are looking way outside the box as well .
The stays quo is not going to be sustainable... at all, for any farm , not if the current direction in western Canadian Ag continues.... it’s impossible as primary producers regardless of size . Simply do the math , and look at additional costs coming that will strip your bottom line even more.
I hope I am wrong . Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 21:14 8 Stopped in at a local terminal the other day. I got talking to the manager and asked if there's any plans for expansion. Yup. A loop track 130+ unit train loading upgrade and an increase in storage capacity...was told how much of an increase but forgot, and a leg(or two?)upgrade. I believe this facility was one of SWP's "Project Horizon's" poster child...on CP mainline. A sure bet for service... (enter bucket)


Seems there's been a fair bit of Inland terminal expansion in this area. Mostly in storage. All after the end of the monopoly.

Now rail service and infrastructure. ....

And west coast loading in the rain. Couldn't something be done?


Talk of rail service disrupted by mud slides(can anyone.confirm). I can see grain taking a back seat to some other freight until the RRs catch up. I guess the "grain business" isn't going anywhere....literally.
Last edited by farmaholic; Dec 5, 2017 at 21:35.
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Dec 5, 2017 | 21:22 9 Bucket has been preaching the insufficient / expensive rail transportation system for years on Agriville .... and he is right , always has been.
We are getting hypnotized to grow more and more and now have to try to stuff an elephant dick through a key hole , and the key hole is getting smaller and more expensive to fix with a government, regardless of stripe unwilling to address it while the rest of the world is blowing past us . Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 21:33 10 Furrow....someone mentioned that Primary Ag Production will be exempt. Well that's only a part of the increased (carbon)tax costs....everyone supplying goods and services will do exactly what they've been doing forever....pass their increased costs "DOWN". And I don't have that luxury.

Some how I think Ag will survive.

ps...I have no canola seed booked and a portion of my fert unsecured. I hate "seasonal price increase deadlines". Maybe if evryone quit playing "their" game.....! I'm incorporated and don't need the write-off AND the money is here to buy it. My accountant said their has to be an economic benefit to me to spend money 7-8 months in advance for a product I need that far out....and then can use up to sixty days to pay for it depending on the timing of pick up at the time of year I need it. That's up to ten months! Aren't you sick of bank rolling the crop input Industry? Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 22:53 11 some things that need to be done to thrive

Pull wrenches
buy haywire
order jobber parts online
dust off welder
buy machinery at auctions and take your chances
Learn about electronics online during the winter
Don't go hog wild on fertilizer and chemicals
Build relationships with processors and value added industries
Have sufficient grain storage. I know Bucket will hate that one
Buy grain drier
Take care of equipment
Take care seeding and harvesting. It pays
Don't hit the bottle and quit smoking
Just some of the things that at one time or another have made a big difference to the bottom line or saved our bacon. Learned from experience and observation

Others can add
feel free to yell if I'm off base Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 23:05 12 101.1

My only complaint would be why primary producers are the only link in the chain that is expected to tighten their belt or trim the fat and get lean. Do people realize the amount of parasitism we endure? God there's alot of people not earning their keep in this Industry. Every fuckin supplier of goods and services could afford to do what is expected of us! They might lift their boot off your throat just before you take your last breath.....because they "need" you!

Hope you're not drowning in those negative waves. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 00:41 13 Why is there no grower groups pushing for rail lines to Churchill? A very close seaport. I wonder if the lack of government support is pressure from line companies and others with a vested interest in east/west transport. There is a problem with facilities at the port, but that could be remedied.
A seaport must surely be a valuable asset. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 06:33 14 I wonder if there is stats on number of loading days/hrs ports are shut down due to rain? Including all ports Rupert, Churchill, Vancouver and along St Lawrence. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 07:24 15
Quote Originally Posted by wmoebis View Post
I wonder if there is stats on number of loading days/hrs ports are shut down due to rain? Including all ports Rupert, Churchill, Vancouver and along St Lawrence.
You can bet there are. Graincos use that to figure out where the basis should be at your local elevator

Out of railcars for unloading stats have been going up every week for the last 4 weeks into the north shore at Vancouver. Bad for Pioneer and Cargill. South shore was at 20% 3 weeks ago.
Week 16 down to about 2% for south shore
Prince Rupert seeing improvement lately
T Bay better lately.
Info in Grain Monitor weekly report
http://quorumcorp.net/Downloads/Week...Week201716.pdf Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 09:12 16
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Furrow....someone mentioned that Primary Ag Production will be exempt. Well that's only a part of the increased (carbon)tax costs....everyone supplying goods and services will do exactly what they've been doing forever....pass their increased costs "DOWN". And I don't have that luxury.

Some how I think Ag will survive.

ps...I have no canola seed booked and a portion of my fert unsecured. I hate "seasonal price increase deadlines". Maybe if evryone quit playing "their" game.....! I'm incorporated and don't need the write-off AND the money is here to buy it. My accountant said their has to be an economic benefit to me to spend money 7-8 months in advance for a product I need that far out....and then can use up to sixty days to pay for it depending on the timing of pick up at the time of year I need it. That's up to ten months! Aren't you sick of bank rolling the crop input Industry?
trouble is , they have us by the nuts, 46 has gone up $50/mt since we bought in sept Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 09:17 17 My understanding is both Argentina and Chile have been doing a lot more canola as of late but a large portion is for seed production. Mostly to be sold in Canada.

Pretty sure Idaho is the main seed sourcing area and then Chile/Argentina are the back ups.

Likely not accounting for every acre that is grown there but probably is a factor.

Or i'm wrong. 50/50 Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 09:29 18
Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
I have a sick feeling , and believe 90% of us are fuked going forward if we continue to try the world export game in commodity grains . Carbon tax is coming regardless what we believe or hear . That can and will eat up to 50% of our net profits . Our cost and inefficiency of transportation to markets is making us obsolete, just re read what Dave said a few posts ago , all those transportation costs will only keep going up. When the simple transportation costs are higher than the pit prices ... it’s game over . Big farming inputs are on a one way ticket to the moon . Check grain/ oilseed / pulse prices to historic values and relate that to inflation... it’s a dead end . Even the biggest most efficient farms will eventually stumble if things continue as they are here in Canada .
Add that to skyrocketing land prices .... I see a crash again on most farms if we continue to go status quo regardless of farm size . Even for the most conservative basic family farm , run the numbers , then add on the environmental cost that’s about to be passed on to the lowest guy on the totem pole ... it’s you and I .
Everyone in Ag is milking the cow too much , it’s going to be dry ... soon .
I live and breathe Ag , but see a suffocating situation ahead.
Too many hands in too shallow of pockets, too far from commercial markets.
Without a strong bio fuels mandate and far more in depth local processing environment, even to an on farm basis, there is little if any hope for commercial grain farms looking forward 5-10 years.
Klause knows this and is trying in the right direction. We are looking way outside the box as well .
The stays quo is not going to be sustainable... at all, for any farm , not if the current direction in western Canadian Ag continues.... it’s impossible as primary producers regardless of size . Simply do the math , and look at additional costs coming that will strip your bottom line even more.
I hope I am wrong .
Dont't sugar coat it Furrow. Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 09:44 19
Quote Originally Posted by Kinger View Post
My understanding is both Argentina and Chile have been doing a lot more canola as of late but a large portion is for seed production. Mostly to be sold in Canada.

Pretty sure Idaho is the main seed sourcing area and then Chile/Argentina are the back ups.

Likely not accounting for every acre that is grown there but probably is a factor.

Or i'm wrong. 50/50

Funny story...


In the 70s rapeseed was introduced in Argentina but it didn't go over well and fizzled out. In the team 1990s Canadian companies went down therlooking for a place to produce seed... And they found it... Farmers there saw what new varieties were like and that's where the acre growth started...


Once they figure out from agronomy of it... And growing canola in opposition to beans (n credits from beans are much higher there than here) we may have a problem.


So far the export shipments have only been to other Mercosur countries... Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 09:59 20 I think we should continue to send our people all over the world to teach foreign farmers how to destroy our markets....

We should also continue to use checkoff funds to develop private label varieties for certain processors....for essentially SFA of a ROI to the checkoff fund...

Sarcasm of course.....

You guys talk about terrorists travellers....these are no different....as an anology to the farming sector....

Our best hope is political unrest worldwide so others don't get ahead of us...

If Nebraska finds out that lentils would work under pivots without as much water....there won't be much left to grow here...

Or Africa starts to use its vast agriculture resource. ...
Last edited by bucket; Dec 6, 2017 at 10:08.
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Dec 6, 2017 | 10:01 21 And why would they purposefully grow a crop which requires much higher inputs and sells for a discount to beans? Or is it a seasonal thing where this would be the winter crop inbetween? Reply With Quote
ajl
Dec 6, 2017 | 10:36 22 Canola also grows in Argentina without TUA's. Imagine that. Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 12:26 23
Quote Originally Posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
And why would they purposefully grow a crop which requires much higher inputs and sells for a discount to beans? Or is it a seasonal thing where this would be the winter crop inbetween?


Sells for a premium to beans there. $460 to $500 USD per tonne (cheaper still than buying from Canada and hauling it down there)

High oil content 50-52%

And yes it's grown in the winter season while beans corn and cotton get grown in summer. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 13:23 24 Crop production is changing. Canada is becoming a minnow in a ocean of sharks. Everyone is producing more more more.
Last resort supplier : Canada. And we should be.... we produce a very expensive bushel. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 16:09 25 I am ignorant to world demand for oilseeds but it seems the world uses up all the soy farms can produce. Cereals are a different story. For the big gains in canola and soy production the price of canola doesn’t seem to drop off yet. Is demand increasing such that any new players coming on stream will bomb the market? Is more of this demand industrial or feed? Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 16:32 26 I not very worried about Argentina out competing us. I am sure their economy will be wiped out by hyperinflation again soon. Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 16:35 27 Also Klause, You forgot Argentina is famous for export taxes. Currently they have a 30% export tax on beans. Can't imagine that is helping their competitiveness Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 18:10 28
Quote Originally Posted by bgmb View Post
I not very worried about Argentina out competing us. I am sure their economy will be wiped out by hyperinflation again soon.


Wow.

Argentina did very well until US meddling in the mid 20th century...

With a waning US influence and hundreds of billions in Chinese investment... It's worth keeping an eye on.


China is seeing Canada as a hostile investment region... While Argentina Chile Brazil and other Mercosur countries are welcoming of the foreign capital.





Soybean Meal Exports by Country in 1000 MT

Rank Country Exports (1000 MT)
1 Argentina 28,650.00
2 Brazil 13,600.00
3 United States 9,253.00
4 India 3,950.00
5 Paraguay 2,325.00
6 Bolivia 1,290.00
7 China 1,000.00
8 EU-27 700.00
9 Canada 200.00
10 Norway 155.00

In wheat Russia bumped us to 3rd largest exporter and Argentina moved from 15th to 7th in 4 years.




Unless we start watching learning to compete between the FSU and Latin America we will be done in commodity production Reply With Quote
Dec 6, 2017 | 18:24 29 I could be wrong, but Argentina's increased wheat exports blew out their carryover. Export amounts going forward could be volatile depending on annual production results. Reply With Quote
blackpowder's Avatar Dec 6, 2017 | 22:06 30 Well we cant change the Rockies, or the Shield, or the muskeg and sea ice.
Right of ways for extra rail lines doesnt change the distance.
COPs will have to change. And N to S rail. Reply With Quote