Yellow Pea Saga

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Yellow Pea Saga

farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 07:37 1 Johnston's Grain Marketing is quoting bids and trades of $7.25 yellow peas for SE Sask....

1-800-324-7778

caseih...you by?
Last edited by farmaholic; Dec 5, 2017 at 07:41.
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Dec 5, 2017 | 07:50 2 Well work the numbers back from 16 bucks. Hahaha and then you ll find that yellow peas should never have been where they were prior to the 50% tax.

And and and there is so much more going on between the middlemen and the end men it should all be independently looked at.

Marketing transparency does not exist. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 08:16 3 16 bucks seems like a bit of a stretch. Organics? Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 08:17 4 Nope that's what peas are worth in India. .....prices domestically in India ran up after the tax ..... Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 08:18 5
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Johnston's Grain Marketing is quoting bids and trades of $7.25 yellow peas for SE Sask....

1-800-324-7778

caseih...you by?
yea , thanks . we did sell one load for $6.30 picked up
anytime I tried johnston , freight was crazy , but I will give them a call Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 08:22 6
Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
yea , thanks . we did sell one load for $6.30 picked up
anytime I tried johnston , freight was crazy , but I will give them a call
Scoular in your corner???? Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 08:46 7
Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
Nope that's what peas are worth in India. .....prices domestically in India ran up after the tax .....
Would they be 16$ without the import duty?

Tighten supply....

another one of those open market moves? Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 08:50 8 16 bucks is what they are willing to pay!!!!!!!!!!! 60 pounds in a bushel you can eat quite while on 60 pounds compared to other foods.

But ya they are so over supplied!!!!
Hahaha what fools we are. Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 08:52 9 Just let the hunger unrest settle in and deepen for a while in India ...

If they don't come back for peas before seeding it becomes a long wait for September 2019..... Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 08:57 10
Quote Originally Posted by the big wheel View Post
16 bucks is what they are willing to pay!!!!!!!!!!! 60 pounds in a bushel you can eat quite while on 60 pounds compared to other foods.

But ya they are so over supplied!!!!
Hahaha what fools we are.
....."willing to pay" or grudgingly paying?!?!?!?!?! Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 09:02 11 If there was over supply would it be 16 bucks? Although it usually is about what price normally? Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 09:03 12
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Would they be 16$ without the import duty?

Tighten supply....

another one of those open market moves?
Prior to import duty peas where about USD $280 CNF India. If you want to do CAD price per bushel it was $9.60/bushel. But Russia was the seller anyway, we were not moving much into the market. Of course you have to take off ocean frt and rail frt and handling on prairies and port. Ocean insurance and LCs come out of that as well.

The yellow pea market will stumble along until any shorts are covered both here and China and it likely gets really weak. We are at $6.75 delivered to Lajord. Can't make the $7.25 fob farm work today on new sales. Need to recognize that not all prices out there in these crops are for new sales. Take advantage of these prices as i have said for the last 4 months, we will have massive carryouts of peas and lentils this year in canada and we need massive reductions in acreage to turn this thing around. Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 09:06 13 Sell sell sell to Someone now because they have the real deals made in the future to make the real money. Hahahah everybody please sell!!!!! Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 09:09 14 And 16 bucks represents a 25% increase in price. Last time I checked my math that means prices definitely weren't 9 bucks over there. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 09:24 15 A while ago a special crops handler threw out a bid of a little over $6....trying to capitalize on the market panic and fear. That appeared like theivery to me. Prices have "rebounded" a bit and like Dave said....when commitments are filled prices may fall back again.

I hate making excuses for GrainCos....but if they don't have a home for them or can't make sales......how else are they supposed to send the message. I personally prefer "no bid" than insulting me with bargain basement blow out prices! Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 09:50 16
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
I personally prefer "no bid" than insulting me with bargain basement blow out prices!
Me too. Along with an explanation

Mumbai spot prices today for "white"(yellow) peas 2500Rs/100kg about 13.39 CAD/bu. Russian origin 12.98 CAD/bu
October report list Canada exports of peas to India at 9.99 CAD/bu. 11.34 CAD/bu average all destinations. That would be all types Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 10:09 17
Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
Me too. Along with an explanation

Mumbai spot prices today for "white"(yellow) peas 2500Rs/100kg about 13.39 CAD/bu. Russian origin 12.98 CAD/bu
October report list Canada exports of peas to India at 9.99 CAD/bu. 11.34 CAD/bu average all destinations. That would be all types
Some of this is container freight to smaller destinations. For example not unheard of to have USD $90/MT in ocean frt costs if all they take is container. so 90x1.27/36.743 is $3.11/bu in ocean costs alone. Add in rail to port cost and cleaning and you have another CAD $80/MT or $2/bu. (say $55+25/mt)

Peas are not worth anything sitting in the middle of Canada and unfortunately these costs are real. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 10:09 18 I guess once panic subsides and sales are pending.....there needs to be "offers". Up to you if you want to take them.

Got calls for my greens too after the yellow fiasco.....were they "bargain" hunting? Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 10:10 19
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Scoular in your corner????
Yea deal there quite a bit . Had $8 contacts there in sept and also sold some overage for $7.25 from combine Pretty quiet there right now Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 10:18 20 Explain the "can" math to me...what's the "90 X 1.27"?

Edit....ooops, Exchange?
Last edited by farmaholic; Dec 5, 2017 at 10:21.
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Dec 5, 2017 | 10:23 21
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Explain the "can" math to me...what's the "90 X 1.27"?

Edit....ooops, Exchange?
yes USD $90/MT x 1.27 is CAD Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 10:28 22
Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
Yea deal there quite a bit . Had $8 contacts there in sept and also sold some overage for $7.25 from combine Pretty quiet there right now
Green market is a different animal but it has been dead long before this situation. Export market is very quiet. Pet food is main home right now for green peas and they will now take yellow peas. $7.25 FOB in SE is purely to go into USA direct for Pet food. That FOB business will come and go.

$7.25 FOB will look hot after xmas. Again, in order to compete with Russia we will need to be in $6-7 delivered basis once india starts buying again. Note that we are down 500,000 MT in first three months of crop year exports with virtually zero sales on books right now. Lentils are half, down 325000 MT. This is nothing to do with the Indian issue. Just lack of demand.

Lots of people trying to blame the duty issue on today's price. Its the other way around. Low price caused the duty. Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 12:55 23
Quote Originally Posted by dave4441 View Post
Green market is a different animal but it has been dead long before this situation. Export market is very quiet. Pet food is main home right now for green peas and they will now take yellow peas. $7.25 FOB in SE is purely to go into USA direct for Pet food. That FOB business will come and go.

$7.25 FOB will look hot after xmas. Again, in order to compete with Russia we will need to be in $6-7 delivered basis once india starts buying again. Note that we are down 500,000 MT in first three months of crop year exports with virtually zero sales on books right now. Lentils are half, down 325000 MT. This is nothing to do with the Indian issue. Just lack of demand.

Lots of people trying to blame the duty issue on today's price. Its the other way around. Low price caused the duty.

Those are going to Winnipeg actually.


I agree with the rest of your post but I think 5-6 here central SK will be needed to make export sense... Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 13:14 24
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Johnston's Grain Marketing is quoting bids and trades of $7.25 yellow peas for SE Sask....

1-800-324-7778

caseih...you by?
their price for us here is $6.50 fob farm , just checked. the problem with farming at the edge of the world Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 13:30 25 Our flax into southern Manitoba..... same issue. Freight to plant took about 90 cents a bushel off fob plant prices. Sucks to be me.... in the Slum of the Ghetto! Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Dec 5, 2017 | 15:45 26
Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
their price for us here is $6.50 fob farm , just checked. the problem with farming at the edge of the world
You can get that at the feed Mills in Humboldt now. Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 15:48 27
Quote Originally Posted by Klause View Post
Those are going to Winnipeg actually.


I agree with the rest of your post but I think 5-6 here central SK will be needed to make export sense...
Yes, will be small volumes. We sold some our new crop purchases to same guy. Paid more then export market, in Sept. These are all about non traditional pea business

Prices loaded container CY Stoon will never work on peas to India, only stuffed in Vancouver from hoppers. In really strong demand it can equate, but normally pea margin is so low that it has to be transloaded only in Van. Reply With Quote
Dec 5, 2017 | 15:50 28
Quote Originally Posted by wiseguy View Post
I ain't sellin to Dave !
Don't then. I am not trying to buy grain on here, but i have been realistic with my information for months as i usually have a pretty good understanding of these markets.

Find someone you trust to explain where markets sit and where they feel they are headed. Likely pays better then locking the bins in frustration months after the markets moved away from you. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Dec 8, 2017 | 20:05 29 Johnston's has brokered about 4244 tonnes(156000 bushels) of yellow peas this week.... with the VAST majority at $7.25/bu.

Good to see the market rebound a bit from the Indian tariff blow.

Can I get a finder's fee for putting this out there. I wonder if this market($7.25) will fill or if this is the new norm.
Last edited by farmaholic; Dec 8, 2017 at 20:12.
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