Alberta to lead economic growth in Canada in 2018

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Alberta to lead economic growth in Canada in 2018

Nov 30, 2017 | 15:58 31
Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
Dml are you serious? Last Alberta was 45th in this survey. Taxation policies of the NDP and Canada's inability to get pipelines built are the reason
Yes Hamloc I am serious and here is why. You point out Alberta was 45th in 2016 and yet they are 33rd now. You would think that if it was the fault of the current government the number would not have increased. I put forward that the attractiveness for investment has a lot more to due with the price of oil than with who the government is.

Second. In 2014 the investment in oil and gas in Alberta was 60.6 billion. It dropped to 27 billion in 2016. Comparatively, in Saskatchewan it went from 6.7 billion in 14 to 3.5 billion in 16. In percentages, the drop in Alberta was 45%. In Saskatchewan it was 52%. Seems strange that the % drop is higher under the Sask Party than under the NDP. Unless the drop has less to do with what party is in government and more to do with the drop in oil prices.

Third, Brad Wall has made numerous pitches for oil companies to move to Saskatchewan, offering all kinds of tax incentives and inducements. Do you know how many oil companies moved from Alberta to Saskatchewan? As of July 1, 17 zero, none, niltch! Apparently they would rather sit and bitch about the government than actually move. Yes, companies have downsized, and have even gone broke, but that happened in both provinces and again had more to do with the price crash of oil than government.

Fourth. Investment is picking up in both provinces. Outlook for Saskatchewan is an increase of 2.6 billion in investment in 17 over 16. In Alberta the forecast is for 4.1 billion more investment in 17 than in 16. If the business climate is so bad in Alberta you would think the increase in investment would have been higher in Saskatchewan than Alberta but not so. Reply With Quote
Nov 30, 2017 | 16:25 32 So Dml how do you explain BC's drop in the ratings and Saskatchewan's improvement. BC has a very anti oil and gas development government and it is reflected in their rating. And your ideological slant seems to make you unable to see the NDP has always been and still is anti business and anti oil. Look at Jagmeet Singh's outlook on pipeline development and taxation. You seem like an intelligent person but blinded by ideology. Reply With Quote
Nov 30, 2017 | 21:39 33 Sask suffered for 2 generations after uncle Al nationalized potash.

We exported most of bright kids to help Alberta boom.

Few even considered staying home. Reply With Quote
Nov 30, 2017 | 22:06 34
Quote Originally Posted by Hamloc View Post
So Dml how do you explain BC's drop in the ratings and Saskatchewan's improvement. BC has a very anti oil and gas development government and it is reflected in their rating. And your ideological slant seems to make you unable to see the NDP has always been and still is anti business and anti oil. Look at Jagmeet Singh's outlook on pipeline development and taxation. You seem like an intelligent person but blinded by ideology.
Hamloc, I am not NDP. In fact the only party I have ever been an active member in was the PCs but I tore up my membership card years ago when the left-right divide took precedence over good government. I believe division and exclusion are detrimental to any government, organization, or group and labelling, name calling, and personal attacks are the most dangerous challenge to democracy. So I will stand up against such attacks by both the right and left.

When I see charts like the one Oliver posted which is solely intended to incite anti- NDP sentiments by insinuating the only reason for falling investment in oil and gas is only because of which party is in government and ignoring a much larger issue like the actual price of oil it makes my blood boil. Especially when the chart does not even match the years in power for the party ie they use 2014 for Alberta yet NDP never got in until 2015. Furthermore how does a person who quickly looks at this chart rule out other factors like gas prices when the chart is comparing 3 different time frames for 3 different provinces. Most people probably never even noted the years on the chart which is likely what the graphic designer intended The chart is pure propaganda!

I know some on this list will scoff at this and likely put me down for what I am saying but those are the ones that are so entrenched in ideology that they refuse to even consider what someone they disagree with is saying. I truly feel sorry for them. but I know they will not hear a word I am saying so my comments are not intended to change their minds. My posts are intended for those who may not see the misinformation that is being posted by hyper partisans who care more about swaying opinions than building a better country.

I actually welcome an opposing point of view to what I hold and will always research a well presented point of view contrary to my own because I am willing to admit my point of view may be wrong and I want to learn even if it means admitting I am wrong. I enjoy a good debate. And I am thankful for posters like AF5 who make me question my views on climate change everyday with good arguments; and who are willing to defend their position when I question them on it. Open honest discussion leads to both parties learning something. Reply With Quote
Nov 30, 2017 | 23:27 35 BREAKING NEWS

NDP RESPONSIBLE FOR ALBERTA'S PROSPERITY

Fake news again.

http://boereport.com/2016/08/16/at-t...il-price-drop/

NDP

One and done Reply With Quote
LEP
Nov 30, 2017 | 23:33 36 Hum, dmlfarmer. Is the price of oil not the same for all provinces? So that doesn't explain the relative shift in attractiveness between provinces.

Try again. Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 00:55 37 Hopefully those charts are written on soft tissue as a person can wipe your ass with them and get better use than what's written. We ve proven here that all the attraction of oil in the world doesn't make the books work out of you have a government bought off by the oil industry that's all those charts show is which governments are owned by oil. You can put up another one that you wipe the other cheek with showing that when unions get their way Ndp are in. So what?

The answer is what do you do with what you have for investment? Are more people better off or not by attracting oil to come develope without paying for roads they destroy infrastructure they use and subsidies that make your blood boil for sure when you see the billions taken out of the province to foreign owners. All the while the western governments of all
Stripes sit and whine about transfer payments when they are too preoccupied with filling their own pockets instead of figuring out ways to get the money and keep it. Bought off governments lead to what we have now likely jail bait. That is if there are any records left of anything our last government has done as apparently all info was done on private emails intentionally so us morons would never find out what? How good they were? Hahahaha have another drink!!!!
Last edited by the big wheel; Dec 1, 2017 at 00:58.
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Dec 1, 2017 | 00:55 38
Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post

I actually welcome an opposing point of view to what I hold and will always research a well presented point of view contrary to my own because I am willing to admit my point of view may be wrong and I want to learn even if it means admitting I am wrong. I enjoy a good debate. And I am thankful for posters like AF5 who make me question my views on climate change everyday with good arguments; and who are willing to defend their position when I question them on it. Open honest discussion leads to both parties learning something.
Likewise, I appreciate your input, even though we generally disagree. You don't come across as dogmatic in your views, you address a question directly, you're polite in the process, and you don't use a cut and paste to respond to everything. Please keep posting and challenging our views. It is obviously a thankless job. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Dec 1, 2017 | 07:40 39 DML Farmer it is tough to get a point across in this group. But it is also a great place to see what people are thinking and how they feel things could get better or worse.

Yes I dont like the NDP and it is for one reason.

Saskatchewan was run by this group since i was a little boy.

Facts you graduated and got a suit case and either went to university or got the hell out of Dodge.

You moved to Alberta or Ontario if you believed in something better.

Those who were dedicated Socialists got jobs depending i joke on how smart you were.

Sask power was #1
Sask Tel right up their.
Then it started to tail off.
Sask Highways was usually last.

They bought up every thing in sight. From mines to Farm land.

Have a neighbour that wanted to sell to my father then in turn dies and his kids sell to the gov and guess what the Areas Biggest NDP got the land.

Coincidence.

A hero was some one who worked for the province.

Yet Alberta grew and grew and grew. from a Cow town to wow what a place. You had PC we had NDP.

It was a sad place when you were in school they would march in the Minister to talk to the schools. Yea High Hitler it was more like.

Again the ones who left seemed to get way ahead their homes were nicer they drove better cars they had better every thing.

It was a cradle to grave. Father retires from Civil service son or daughter take their position.

Finally Finally it was first taken out when People believed they could have better But Socialism is hard to kill plus its tough when the Unions and workers support and fund the opposition. Unlimited spending vs Donations.

The second coming was short lived and it failed as people woke up and soon realized their was better and we had every thing and more here from Land to Oil to Gas to Potash to gold to Forests to Diamonds etc etc.

Why were we the Mississippi of Canada.

Once you get a taste of life without Socialism you realize its good. But it took a whole generation to breed that mentality out. I for one hope it doesn't ever come back but history usually repeats when educated dont study history.

You say you Burnt or Tore up your PC card thats great its a democratic right.

But by getting rid of one small problem that did need a house cleaning you elected Saskatchewans Troubles as most moved to Help you guys out and advise.

Some times its better to dance with the Devil you Know than the one you dont.

Trudeau is prime example of being elected for the wrong reason.

Now were stuck with a financial wreck and we still have two years of this shit show.

Keep posting, Hell i deal with Grass and Chuck every day, they have opinions on how the world looks some maybe are right some times.

Its dialogue and its a good thing. Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 07:44 40 LEP, the WTI price offered on any given day is the same for all provinces, but that does not mean the price for crude received by the oil company is the same. Oil sands crude sells at a significant discount to light Bakken Shale oil. Just as the price wheat futures price is the same for all farmers doesn't mean that the farmer selling low protein, sprouted, weathered feed quality wheat will get the same price as his neighbor that harvested the same variety but grown with better fertility and management program and harvest early, before snow and is getting a #1 high protein.

Also, I dare say oil prices were different in 2007, 2014, and 2016, yet those different dates were the first year given for the 3 provinces. So how do you compare 3 different time periods which have vastly different prices.

Third, the cost of extraction is also very different in each province, especially over the 10 year time spread in the chart. Oil sand extraction is much more expensive than fracked shale which tends to be more expensive than shallow conventional. As well, location of fields related to roads, services, and labor is a huge factor. Profit is not just a function of selling price. Good management considers costs of extraction as well and there is a vast difference in costs between provinces.

And then there is the question of size of investment required. A good example was the junior company Black Pearl which decided to invest $180 million in Saskatchewan to double its 12000 bbl/day production at onion lake instead of investing $800 million in Alberta in a new play to extract 20,000 bbl/day initially. Marginal cost for additional barrels of oil in Sask is 180M/12,000 vs 800M/20,000 in Alberta. I know this analysis might be confusing to many farmers who only look at maximizing production rather than marginal returns.

None of these factors are addressed by the chart.
Last edited by dmlfarmer; Dec 1, 2017 at 10:09.
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SASKFARMER3's Avatar Dec 1, 2017 | 08:24 41 I guess if your almost dead last you only have one place to go thats up. Or is it most in the oil business know that she is not going to get elected and are starting to plan for her day of defeat. Gearing up for future with out nut case. Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 08:48 42
Quote Originally Posted by dmlfarmer View Post
Yes Hamloc I am serious and here is why. You point out Alberta was 45th in 2016 and yet they are 33rd now. You would think that if it was the fault of the current government the number would not have increased. I put forward that the attractiveness for investment has a lot more to due with the price of oil than with who the government is.

Second. In 2014 the investment in oil and gas in Alberta was 60.6 billion. It dropped to 27 billion in 2016. Comparatively, in Saskatchewan it went from 6.7 billion in 14 to 3.5 billion in 16. In percentages, the drop in Alberta was 45%. In Saskatchewan it was 52%. Seems strange that the % drop is higher under the Sask Party than under the NDP. Unless the drop has less to do with what party is in government and more to do with the drop in oil prices.

Third, Brad Wall has made numerous pitches for oil companies to move to Saskatchewan, offering all kinds of tax incentives and inducements. Do you know how many oil companies moved from Alberta to Saskatchewan? As of July 1, 17 zero, none, niltch! Apparently they would rather sit and bitch about the government than actually move. Yes, companies have downsized, and have even gone broke, but that happened in both provinces and again had more to do with the price crash of oil than government.

Fourth. Investment is picking up in both provinces. Outlook for Saskatchewan is an increase of 2.6 billion in investment in 17 over 16. In Alberta the forecast is for 4.1 billion more investment in 17 than in 16. If the business climate is so bad in Alberta you would think the increase in investment would have been higher in Saskatchewan than Alberta but not so.
First, remember in 2014 Alberta was 15th, by 2016 that was 45th and 2017 it 33rd. What changed between 16 and 17? The federal government approved 3 new pipelines. And you are correct the price have oil has improved but at the same time Alberta's rating improved BC's nosedived! Isn't the price of oil the same in BC? Don't they have access to coastal waters? Hmmm

Second, hard to argue with percentages. I will point out that between Dec. 2016 and March 2017 7 multi-national companies divested themselves of oilsands assets. Statoil, Koch Industries, Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips, Exxonmobil, Marathon Oil, and Royal Dutch Shell. My thought on this is that there are various reasons. Oilsands is more expensive to produce. The cost of the carbon tax plus the emissions cap both put in place by the NDP certainly make long term investment in the oilsands less attractive and more expensive to produce.So in this case, I would say government policy does influence investment.

Third, you raise an interesting point. My guess is that they prefer to stay in Alberta. And yes many companies have disappeared.

Fourth, you basically answered your own question here but you fail to see it. In Alberta $27 billion in investment in 2016, this will increase by $4.1 billion or 15%. In Saskatchewan $3.5 billion of investment in 2016, this will increase by $2.6 billion or 74%. Where is the higher percentage of increase?

Dml, my thoughts on your 4 points, enjoy your day😃 Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 09:18 43 On a world scale Canada has some of the lowest royalty rates and takes a very small share of a resource value that is owned by the provinces.

We mismanaged a a one time non-renewable resource and will have little to show for it in terms of long term sustainable jobs and economic activity.

We let the oil industry run the show. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Dec 1, 2017 | 09:22 44 So leaving it in the ground and destroying a whole industry in hope that Fairy Dust and Wind propellors will be the new world.

yea thats a special kind of Stupid again chuck better ideas are needed your getting real boring. Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 12:56 45
Quote Originally Posted by SASKFARMER3 View Post
So leaving it in the ground and destroying a whole industry in hope that Fairy Dust and Wind propellors will be the new world.

yea thats a special kind of Stupid again chuck better ideas are needed your getting real boring.
I didn't say leave it in the ground. Norway didn't leave it in the ground. They now have a trillion $ put away for their citizens. I am sure you get bored easily! LOL Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Dec 1, 2017 | 13:21 46 That would be a great plan chuck oh wait some useless liberal or NDP would start pissing it away till it would be gone. Reply With Quote
LEP
Dec 1, 2017 | 13:39 47 So dmlfarmer did those discounts changed markedly over the period? I doubt it. It is still all based off wti. Which is my point.

Oh and Big Wheel the oil company do pay for roads in our RM. 5 miles last year and 7 next year. They pay about 70% of the cost upfront. Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 14:20 48
Quote Originally Posted by LEP View Post
So dmlfarmer did those discounts changed markedly over the period? I doubt it. It is still all based off wti. Which is my point.

Oh and Big Wheel the oil company do pay for roads in our RM. 5 miles last year and 7 next year. They pay about 70% of the cost upfront.
My point is $45 WTI may be profitable for Saskatchewan Bakken field production but not for Alberta heavy oil production therefore Saskatchewan would be more attractive at low oil prices.

When Black Pearl invested the $118 M in Saskatchewan at Onion Lake the CEO did not say they were not going to invest in Alberta because of Notley but rather the $800M for the Alberta project was on hold until the price of oil rose back above $55. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Dec 1, 2017 | 15:05 49 No company is publicly going to say Nut case is a idiot. But at the board table well yea she's a idiot. Reply With Quote