Markets appear nervous . . . .

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Markets appear nervous . . . .

Nov 14, 2017 | 22:43 1 Group . . . an opinion and an observation but, global markets are now showing signs of nervousness.

The bond market is now sending warnings about the U.S. economy. High yield debt is now selling off and the Treasury yield curve flattens. In other words, yields of longer duration bonds are getting closer to the yields of shorter duration bonds. This can be viewed as a forewarning about an incoming recession.

Global commodity prices are having a difficult week. Copper to cattle to soybeans have reversed and now in-decline, China equities are now selling off which is a warning for commodity markets. China's bad debt (shadow banking) is now a huge concern (IMO) to North American markets.

And central bankers are meeting this week. It is clear there is nothing left in their tank to fight deflationary pressures. The Fed talks up three (3) rate hikes in 2018. There is little chance of that (IMO) as the U.S. may be on-the-cusp of falling head-first into recession entering 2018.

Realize, the pot is being stirred by these comments, but markets can act like an ostrich with its head in the sand until its simply too late. Errol Reply With Quote
Nov 14, 2017 | 23:32 2 Errol, what's your prediction with the CAD vs USD over next 6-12 months? Reply With Quote
Nov 14, 2017 | 23:39 3 Just a hunch and that's it, but I have a feeling there's a pile of scared money in Saudi Arabia that's trying to cash out and get mobile. Gold has had a couple panic moments 4 billion in 10 minutes type deals. Euro today got goosed, Draghi? Or Arabs? Crude selling off. Kinda fun to watch if there's no margin call involved. Options only in this environment Reply With Quote
Nov 15, 2017 | 03:38 4 Oliver, calling currencies is one of the most difficult markets. But resistance levels up are now support lines going down. Do see a major support line just below 76 cents. Loonie could also break above 80 cents should a U.S. recession spook their dollar into 2018. Oil prices very unpredictable, but believe Saudi Arabia has lost its Midas touch. OPEC has lost an incredible amount of power.

Gold is in trouble without Rocket man in the news. Global gold demand has now collapsed to an eight (8) year low. India’s severe recession has taken a huge toll on the world’s largest buyer of bullion. Reply With Quote
Nov 15, 2017 | 06:34 5 Errol if commentators such as your self keep saying the market is nervous pretty soon it will be and you ll finally be right.
Is there a time the markets aren't nervous? Things change in a short period of time shorter than they used to partly because of this technology which this forum is on. Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Nov 15, 2017 | 08:04 6 Back up the truck, and BTFD! Reply With Quote
Nov 15, 2017 | 08:08 7
Quote Originally Posted by the big wheel View Post
Errol if commentators such as your self keep saying the market is nervous pretty soon it will be and you ll finally be right.
Is there a time the markets aren't nervous? Things change in a short period of time shorter than they used to partly because of this technology which this forum is on.
Markets and investors have been extremely complacent over the past 2 to 3 years through this never-ending U.S. bull run in equities. The VIX index is a gauge and an indication of investor fear, which has been incredibly low for some time. Even the threat of N. Korea war did nothin to deter recent stock market gains.

If investors have been nervous, they certainly haven't shown it. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Nov 15, 2017 | 08:14 8 Is it anything another round of money printing can't fix? Reply With Quote
Nov 15, 2017 | 08:19 9 Really they have been saying Chinese shadow banking was going to cause global turmoil since back in 2012 if i recall. thats not new. What is, after 7 years of central banks of pumping money 2018 will see the first removal of that liquidity, albeit a small amount. Does it cause a correction they cant control, or at the first sign of problems do the central banks reverse course and start pumping money back in. Reply With Quote
Nov 15, 2017 | 11:26 10
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
Is it anything another round of money printing can't fix?
If the U.S. heads for recession over the next year, the Fed has already indicated QE4 (round 4 of money printing) may be born. This is opposite their current policy / strategy now of monetary tightening (hiking rates 3X in 2018) and shrinking the Fed balance sheet. Gong show all the way . . . . Reply With Quote
Nov 15, 2017 | 18:27 11 No question Trump will print. Reply With Quote
Nov 15, 2017 | 21:43 12 Does it matter anymore. Every nation is in the same boat. Just a bunch of numbers on a computer screen. Click a button and it resets. Reply With Quote
Nov 16, 2017 | 07:20 13
Quote Originally Posted by Bowerpower View Post
Does it matter anymore. Every nation is in the same boat. Just a bunch of numbers on a computer screen. Click a button and it resets.
Errol, is that something you maybe don't realize? That the rules of the 'old' game have changed?

Completely agree Bower. There is 0 accountability. Reply With Quote
Nov 16, 2017 | 07:56 14
Quote Originally Posted by tweety View Post
Errol, is that something you maybe don't realize? That the rules of the 'old' game have changed?

Completely agree Bower. There is 0 accountability.
Bower, tweety, hear your point. But there will be 0 accountability until the 'everything bubble' (outside of commodities) eventually breaks.

Once the 'everything bubble' cracks, then accountability and finger pointing will show its ugly face. That's the elephant in the room (IMO) . . . . Reply With Quote
Nov 16, 2017 | 08:11 15
Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
Bower, tweety, hear your point. But there will be 0 accountability until the 'everything bubble' (outside of commodities) eventually breaks.

Once the 'everything bubble' cracks, then accountability and finger pointing will show its ugly face. That's the elephant in the room (IMO) . . . .
Oh I do agree something big will happen eventually and shit will hit the fan. My point is there is pretty much sweet all us "common folk" can do about it. We will all be swept up in a tide of debt, government unaccountability, corporate greed, incompetent people in charge I guess I'll put every penny I have into land and physical assets. But even that can be taken away as history has shown us. Reply With Quote
Nov 16, 2017 | 11:26 16
Quote Originally Posted by the big wheel View Post
Errol if commentators such as your self keep saying the market is nervous pretty soon it will be and you ll finally be right.
Is there a time the markets aren't nervous? Things change in a short period of time shorter than they used to partly because of this technology which this forum is on.
I totally agree with Big's comments in Regards to Errol. The guy has been saying markets nervous now for 4 plus years.. If you listened to his comments you would never leave the house... Not hard to see we have India troubles, North Korean trigger happy, Boy socks wonder being the epic tool he is, the list goes on.... No s hit times are nervous!!
If I got paid to throw out comments that would also be my signature slogan! "Markets are nervous!" lol Reply With Quote
Nov 16, 2017 | 11:45 17
Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
Oliver, calling currencies is one of the most difficult markets. But resistance levels up are now support lines going down. Do see a major support line just below 76 cents. Loonie could also break above 80 cents should a U.S. recession spook their dollar into 2018. Oil prices very unpredictable, but believe Saudi Arabia has lost its Midas touch. OPEC has lost an incredible amount of power.
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Interesting to see what happens and if a recession comes into play. If the USA has a recession don't you think Canada will have one at the same time?

Always seem to read things that basically say the USD is the least scary of the bunch so funds stay parked there.
Weaker oil prices should create a stronger USD vs CAD? Reply With Quote
Nov 16, 2017 | 12:09 18 Why would USA have a recession trump says it's booming??? Lol Reply With Quote
Nov 17, 2017 | 08:28 19 Cdn inflation released this morning showing a slowdown in October. Little chance of a further Bank of Canada rate hike in the foreseeable future (IMO). Loonie under pressure as a result.

The mystery of 'lack of inflation' continues to haunt central bankers. Reply With Quote
Nov 17, 2017 | 08:45 20 Why hasn't inflation been sparked at some point since 2009, especially with all the government intervention QE. I mean real inflation, like the 70's and early 80's?

I can perhaps understand the USD not inflating because of it being "reserve currency"

But why hasn't inflation come to Canada, especially since crude prices fell? Our dollar should be closer to 50 cents.

Errol, can you give 3-4 points why inflation hasn't occurred? Is it truly a mystery? Reply With Quote
Nov 17, 2017 | 09:13 21
Quote Originally Posted by danny W1M View Post
Why hasn't inflation been sparked at some point since 2009, especially with all the government intervention QE. I mean real inflation, like the 70's and early 80's?

I can perhaps understand the USD not inflating because of it being "reserve currency"

But why hasn't inflation come to Canada, especially since crude prices fell? Our dollar should be closer to 50 cents.

Errol, can you give 3-4 points why inflation hasn't occurred? Is it truly a mystery?
Danny . . . debt . . . record government debt, record consumer debt. There is little room for inflation as consumers are tapped out. This is the failure of Keynesian economics of money printing that central bankers on depending on to rescue this sinking ship. The consequences of this are enormous . . . . Reply With Quote
Klause's Avatar Nov 17, 2017 | 09:19 22
Quote Originally Posted by errolanderson View Post
Danny . . . debt . . . record government debt, record consumer debt. There is little room for inflation as consumers are tapped out. This is the failure of Keynesian economics of money printing that central bankers on depending on to rescue this sinking ship. The consequences of this are enormous . . . .

Yup...


Only two ways out are a full reset or triggering hyperinflation and banning indexation of debt. Reply With Quote
Nov 17, 2017 | 09:24 23 Why hasn't Canadian debt(and other counties besides the USA) caused our dollar to drop more? If it dropped to 0.50 we'd certainly have inflation. Reply With Quote
Nov 17, 2017 | 09:44 24 No inflation? are you kidding. Everything from fast food to heavy equip has gone up. When a diesel pickup is listed at 90,000 and a combine and header will be close to a million or have you bought groceries lately. Wow inflation is rampant. Reply With Quote
Nov 17, 2017 | 09:49 25 Nothing like the 70's! Have your wages inflated? Grain prices? Reply With Quote
Nov 17, 2017 | 09:53 26 Believe the global credit cycle has peaked as well . . .

Central bankers have created an incredible financial mess (IMO) with their can-kicking-policies since the fallout of 2008. I'm being too opinionated on this thread, but their manipulative power now has been greatly diminished. A lot of investors are going to get hurt. Pension funds are already under heavy fire . . . . Reply With Quote
Nov 17, 2017 | 11:07 27 It's all interest rates driving prices up and the corporate share buy backs that are driving stocks higher.

I think vehicle & machinery manufactures work together on the fringe of collusion. They price based on interest rates. They know the average consumer will jump after that 1/4ly or month payment if it looks right.

The lease is up, go for the new one, transfer equity and slide into that spanking new unit with lower interest and the same monthly.

Low interest rates give incentive for this type of behaviour but it's a one way street. Only question you have to ask is how low can that interest rate go and that's how high the price of your new unit will get.

Look at P/E ratios across the board in the stock market. Interest rates create this environment and it only makes sence that you see these ratios. Money is only worth what it cost to borrow.

The risk takers are the ones that hung in for the ride. I don't think many rational investors thought this market would do what it has the last while. Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 10:52 28 Strap-in . . . volatility (VIX) is picking up . . . Dow rips above 24,000, Bitcoin rocks above $11,000 this week, then plunges, then surges. U.S. tax reform and Michael Flynn guilty plea rocking markets back and forward.

Treasury market action continues to warn of incoming U.S. recession (IMO) . . . .

Cdn jobs data impressive today . . . powers up loonie. Run toward 80 cents possible?

December may be an interesting market month . . . . Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 10:58 29 VIX posted a historic low in Nov. A good place to turn higher Reply With Quote
Dec 1, 2017 | 12:56 30 Errol,,, greenspan called it frothy, wasn't it? Reply With Quote