Canola

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Canola

Nov 4, 2017 | 15:52 1 Weekly Stats

Visible stocks increased to 1,503,000
Last week 1,453,000 MT

Deliveries
377,600 this week
429,600 last week
5,283,000 year to date
4,995000 MT year to date last year

Exports
165,200 this week
141,100 last week
2,389,000 MT Year to date
2,068,000 MT year to date last year

Crush
176,500 MTthis weeek
216,299 MT last week
2,157,000 MT year to date
2,251,000 MT year to date last year

We are shaping up to move at 19.5 to 20.0 mill mt pretty easy IMO. Viterra has been selling some vessels to China over the last few weeks. Demand still sounds to be strong from there.

Funds now long 15,000 contract.

Another pretty good week in this market.

Seasonal charts showing canola usually starts to make a break down from mid Nov to Christmas but we also started our run higher 2 weeks earlier this year.

USA report next week. Later bean yields in the U.S. certainly have not be as good but remember they dropped their yields in their last report.

More people out there talking a 21 to 22 million tonne crop (I don't believe its that big but if someone starts trading that canola looks expensive today.)

Feels like a good time to take another slice of sales off here to get some grain moving throughout the winter.

I was able to book some 11.90 Feb and 12.01 March delivery canola in Southern MB this week.I hear there was some 11.50 Dec delivery as well at viterra for guys who want to open some bins before Christmas.

Long term still feel we are going to see 12.50 to 13.00 canola April forward. , but its time to take some risk off the table now IMO. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Nov 4, 2017 | 16:14 2 Fuck it and sell it all today and take a position in the market. Futures will go up even if it's all in commercial's hands...no matter what!

Your recent sales are good values....interesting to see if your price predictions materialize.

I would need over $25/bu to match last year's gross returns! Lol.....yup. No sense getting greedy! I'm selling and buying paper because I have faith!


Edit:

ps, happy....we didn't have those values you sold at materialize here yet. Thanks for the numbers.
Last edited by farmaholic; Nov 4, 2017 at 16:31.
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iceman's Avatar Nov 4, 2017 | 18:03 3
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
I'm selling and buying paper because I have faith
Farmastones, that's a bold move buying paper right here. IMO you can own it cheaper in the future

Iceman Out Reply With Quote
Nov 4, 2017 | 19:28 4 I am 100 percent certain that one of the two of you will be right. And yes those are good prices wonder if there wasnt a good basis previously locked we were 30 cents under that.
Last edited by mcfarms; Nov 4, 2017 at 19:31.
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Nov 4, 2017 | 20:00 5
Quote Originally Posted by mcfarms View Post
I am 100 percent certain that one of the two of you will be right. And yes those are good prices wonder if there wasnt a good basis previously locked we were 30 cents under that.
No it wasn't locked in previously. But it was a basis special from the crusher that day. 3 over March for Feb, 7 over March for March. Reply With Quote
Nov 4, 2017 | 20:28 6 That was a good trigger pull. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Nov 4, 2017 | 23:36 7
Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
Farmastones, that's a bold move buying paper right here. IMO you can own it cheaper in the future

Iceman Out
Ice bucket. ....I am obviously bullshitting! Pure sarcasm about selling canola if you literally don't need or want to and basically giving the trade what little power you have!

Nothing wrong with selling for cashflow or you don't want to take storage risk or you're just plain happy with the price but.....you know the rest of my argument! Reply With Quote
Nov 7, 2017 | 12:00 8 Canola is creeping up over $520 January.
CDN $ dropping is helping. Reply With Quote
Nov 7, 2017 | 12:30 9 Toppy? Volume tailing off Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Nov 7, 2017 | 12:41 10
Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
Toppy? Volume tailing off
Hope not.

Probably a roller-coaster ride before the marketing year high is in.

....if it isn't already, which I doubt.

But WTF do I know....my name is farmaholic not analytical marketing "chartaholic". Reply With Quote
Nov 7, 2017 | 13:19 11 Strong demand is a good sign right now.

I'm waiting for the USDA report on Thursday regarding US Soybean yield.

Soybean yields over 50bu/ac will bring some weakness to beans and canola.

Long term i'm bullish canola but im thinking we will see some weakness in the short term soon. Reply With Quote
Nov 7, 2017 | 14:35 12 January 2018 canola hasn't hit $525 + since July, interesting to see if it goes above that in November.

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