Grain Prices....

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Grain Prices....

farmaholic's Avatar Oct 30, 2017 | 22:29 1 Wheat, YAWN, kind of boring.

Canola showing life. When will it hit twelve...any bets?

A bit of life in the mustard market since harvest.

No fireworks in green or yellow peas, greens have premium over yellows.

Flax? Renewed interest from China. I did quite well last year at $13.20 picked up(milling quality). Will I get it this year? We have half the bushels/acre we had last year on twice as many acres this year!....shouldn't that mean I need twice the price this year?

Malt barley versus feed barley? Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Oct 31, 2017 | 08:39 2 Where did your posts go wiseguy?

A marketing forum without any grain marketing/pricing threads!?!?!?! Reply With Quote
Oct 31, 2017 | 08:59 3 Canola - could try asking for 12 now in deferred months. Might trigger. Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Oct 31, 2017 | 09:02 4 11.25 now special deliver tomorrow for Canola

Barley malt 4.50 I want 5

Wheat yawn and less each day available Reply With Quote
Oct 31, 2017 | 09:20 5 Wheat - Portland asking prices have possibly turned the corner. The search for protein will continue.
Very bleak outlook for low protein Reply With Quote
Oct 31, 2017 | 09:27 6 Wheat is creeping up if the dollar heads to 70 we should be over $7.50 again. The protein discounts have decreased but are still too high!

I'm thinking $12 canola will be sooner than I earlier predicted, the crop will prove to be smaller than the industry estimates. At the same time last year price was $1/bushel less and we hit $12 in spring.
Malt is $4.50 for Metcalf and Copeland. Lots of high quality, maybe the drought areas were not significant malt growing areas?
Can't see high quality malt price going much lower.
Last edited by Oliver88; Oct 31, 2017 at 09:30.
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farmaholic's Avatar Nov 1, 2017 | 20:28 7 July canola about $12.10 without any basis. ...wouldn't take much more to get $12 net to Producer with a reasonable basis. Anyone thinking twelve is enough? Another dry season across Western Canada would be outright disasterous without the sub soil reserves we had in 17.....


Oh but this isn't how to market...sell the grain and take a position in the futures market. Good luck after alot of "marketers" relinquish their power. You have even less control when its not in your "possession". More stupid talk from a Sandbox Farmer! Reply With Quote
Nov 1, 2017 | 20:37 8
Quote Originally Posted by farmaholic View Post
July canola about $12.10 without any basis. ...wouldn't take much more to get $12 net to Producer with a reasonable basis. Anyone thinking twelve is enough? Another dry season across Western Canada would be outright disasterous without the sub soil reserves we had in 17.....


Oh but this isn't how to market...sell the grain and take a position in the futures market. Good luck after alot of "marketers" relinquish their power. You have even less control when its not in your "possession". More stupid talk from a Sandbox Farmer!
July is $11.93 at Yorkton LDC Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Nov 1, 2017 | 21:05 9
Quote Originally Posted by Oliver88 View Post
July is $11.93 at Yorkton LDC
...."moving targets" are hard for buyers to hit...lol. Reply With Quote
Nov 2, 2017 | 12:13 10 Wheat up today. A close in this area and again tomorrow is a positive Reply With Quote
Nov 2, 2017 | 13:32 11 What happened in wheat today?
cbot + 8 cents
kcbt + 10 cents
Mge + 8 cents

all in $USD of course! Reply With Quote
Nov 2, 2017 | 13:44 12 Australian grain production is expected to take a big hit with volatile weather around the country making it harder for farmers to match the record-breaking yields from just twelve months ago.

Farmers are expected to produce 35 million tonnes this year. That might sound like a lot, but it's 41 per cent down on last year's record breaking crop of 59 million tonnes.

A dry winter in Western Australia and severe frost events on the east coast will likely result in the impending harvest to be eight million tonnes shy of the national five-year average.

The mediocre outlook comes from rural lending specialist Rabobank which has released its 2017/18 winter crop production forecast.

Rabobank agricultural analyst Wes Lefroy said as harvest gets underway in the coming days and weeks, there will be some disheartened farmers.

"It's been a disappointing year," he said.

"We were never expecting to match the 59 million tonnes of record production that we had last season but, equally, we would have like to at least reached the five-year average."

Mr Lefroy says the shortfall was almost purely due to poor yields, with a similar area planted in 2017.

"Hectares were down slightly, but not significantly," he said.

"We saw a four per cent fall year on year in planted hectares across the nation and really this is due to cut hectares in Western Australia, purely due to the dry start there."



Tale of two seasons

It was a dry start to the season in Western Australia with many farmers experiencing their lowest winter rainfall on record. Rainfall in recent weeks, however, had made for a soft spring finish and increased yields.

On the east coast, a better start to the season didn't mirror the finish with many farmers experiencing devastating frosts.

"Really the story across the nation has been a tale of two halves," Mr Lefroy said.

"The west had a poor start while in the east, Victoria in particular had a good start, even the Riverina too had a good start, but from then on in the east, it's gone backwards and the conditions have deteriorated.

"Frost has certainly been a factor in New South Wales and northern parts of Victoria where some losses have come in between 80 and 100 per cent."

"There are actually farmers in New South Wales that are looking to now graze out crops in canola and also in cereals."

He said New South Wales was looking at its lowest combined yield in a decade.

"Irrespective of where you were in the state, conditions really went back from [seeding]."

"It's really been those drier conditions and even in some of those areas as I mentioned, the frost has really put the nail in the coffin for that year and actually made more damage to the crop than the dry conditions have."



Prices move higher to reflect low grain supply

The yield losses are across the board with wheat down almost 20 per cent on the five-year average, barley 18 per cent down and canola down five per cent.

But Mr Lefroy said the bright spot was an increase in pulse plantings and as a result, the fall in yield would be just four per cent on the five-year average.

"So really the pulse prices at the moment, chick peas and lentils in the east are really incentivising growers to put more hectares in," he said.

Mr Lefroy said for the other bulk commodities, the decrease in supply was positive news for prices.

"Really driving basis, particularly in wheat has been local supply availability," he said.

"So in north eastern states such as Queensland and also New South Wales, local basis have been really quite strong and prices have remained really quite strong.

"To the point where we've actually seen some inter-state grain movements from South Australia and Victoria head to those states to supply the feed demand up there."

Mr Lefroy said prices started high in Western Australia but had dipped to reflect the boost in yields towards the end of the season.

"Basis was really quite strong heading through June and July but then flattened off in October once the season got better," he said.

"So the outlook for wheat price in particular locally, will depend a lot on that local supply story and how harvest plays out." Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Nov 3, 2017 | 06:38 13 Saw a Broker's posted feed wheat trades made at $5.20 to $5.30 a bushel.... a local fellow who contracted half his wheat for $7/bu to a terminal at about 14% Px and delivered well under that is being discounted to under six dollars a bushel! Remember I said half his wheat.... he blended to large bins into one sample and is hoping the undelivered bin has enough HIGH protein to increase the average on the delivered stuff. I think he handled it poorly.... two bins, each off different fields? Topography and previous crop might be making a difference in Px values!

Long story to make the point good feed wheat and low Px milling wheat spread sucks. Reply With Quote
Nov 3, 2017 | 07:07 14 Thanks for the update Mallee

I wonder why the Aus growers would increase Pulse acres with prices dropping and massive stocks on the prairies(canada). When and they will, move into the market place prices will drop further. The Canadian quality is top notch. I would expect pricing in both countries to drop further, and movement slow. The “Russian” entry into pulses might further keep prices low if the big exporters in that country convince the farms to grow large acreage again - only to sell at even lower prices = lower Canadian and Aus prices Reply With Quote
Nov 9, 2017 | 00:12 15 Wheat no longer boring, up 49 cents since Oct 31! Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Nov 9, 2017 | 06:08 16
Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
Wheat no longer boring, up 49 cents since Oct 31!
When I look at the MGEX March daily chart....wow...Last July!!!! We are a long way away from that and wonder how much of that high the market can regain? I don't know if there's any reason for it to try? Px will likely be the driver but I sure.don't like the premium and discount structure....eight cents per tenth discount and only four (cents?)per tenth premium. If px is in such demand and there isn't much around....the schedule is backwards in my opinion. But we all know the answer as to why it is the way it is. AND why are the Cos almost all the same? I guess its up to you to negotiate something better...ha ha ha.

Canola has been working hard since the beginning of Oct but never had the dramatic high spring wht did in July
Last edited by farmaholic; Nov 9, 2017 at 06:10.
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Nov 9, 2017 | 11:52 17 Jan soybeans went up through 10.065 resistance and now in full retreat Reply With Quote
Nov 13, 2017 | 13:46 18 Jan soybeans have fallen to a price that could turn out to be overhead resistance for the next while.

Canola will be following soy complex down tomorrow I would think. There was a big draw on commercial stocks in the week ending Nov 5, but would expect a stock build in the week ending Nov 12.

MW had a poor day but no damage done Reply With Quote
Nov 13, 2017 | 14:31 19
Quote Originally Posted by Rareearth View Post
Thanks for the update Mallee

I wonder why the Aus growers would increase Pulse acres with prices dropping and massive stocks on the prairies(canada). When and they will, move into the market place prices will drop further. The Canadian quality is top notch. I would expect pricing in both countries to drop further, and movement slow. The “Russian” entry into pulses might further keep prices low if the big exporters in that country convince the farms to grow large acreage again - only to sell at even lower prices = lower Canadian and Aus prices
Because their days to maturity is way longer then ours with the crop going into partial dormancy and then back to vegetative and reproductive. What i am saying is Australia seeded long before the picture became clear and before the serious oversupply situation within India.

What i don't understand is their production potential this year. Official number is 540,000 MT of lentils. What is the future number as it will either help or hurt long term. They have been dropping their asking prices in last week so would seem lentil crop is in ok shape Reply With Quote