Canola

[HappyFarmer]

Canola Stats week ending October 8th.

Visible Stocks

1.423 Mill MT
1.286 Mill MT Last week

Deliveries
451,400
581,100 Last week
Year to date 3.992 mill MT
Year to date last year 3.677 mill MT

Exports
368,800 MT
338,400 MT last week
Year to date 1.766 mill MT
Year to date last year 1.449 mill mt

Crush
172,100 MT (believe new weekly record!)
162,200 MT last week
Year to date 1.686 Mill MT
Year to date last year 1.740 Mill mt

Crush pace lagging mainly because of extreme tight supplies starting August 1st.

Crush capacity at around 92.4% last week

Funds bought back 2500 of their short contracts yesterday..Now thought to be about even.

China auctioned off the last of there ****seed oil stocks last week. (Remember, in March of 2015 they had stocks as old as 4 years sitting around there)

Cash bids up to 11.50 March in Yorkton yesterday.

Everything moving as planned. Market can have some more of mine once we see 11.75 to 12.00 ( i think we will see it for Jan forward bids over the next month)

Quick moved above 500 Nov and back down a bit. Looks like we are in a nice range now, still trending higher.

Keep sitting tight IMO. Still feels bullish.

[farmaholic]

Give it to them and ride the market.....no need for control through possession!!!!!! Futures market will take care of you and has your best interests at heart!!!

Crop is MUCH bigger than we think.

Cash flow

No spoilage

Sell sell sell.

Don't be a fool.

[Guest]

Yea and theyll still tell us she was a huge crop with no water ? Sad part is we will never know just how bad it was

[farming101]

Thanks Happy.
I think crush got off to a slow start because business was covered. There was no need to bid up the market. Crushers could afford to be patient till new crop was available.
There was enough in the system to get exports off to a great start. More of that could have been diverted to crush if there was a need.

[Agvocate]

Great summary. Market feels like it's chewing through a lot of hedges here. We have been in a pretty defined range for the past 24 months. Never really extended more than $20/MT either side of $500 on the front month. Makes option vol pretty cheap if you want to move something and buy it back on paper, or texas hedge it.

[Kinger]

Farming101, don't forget old crop canola was at a pretty significant premium to what new crop was before harvest. No elevator or crush was likely willing to take that hit so they went into the new year with just enough old crop canola as they needed to while trying to focus on getting more ownership new crop.

Most elevators were pricing themselves out of the market as they didn't want to risk losing the spread between old and new. Why buy expensive canola that by the time it moves cheaper canola will be available.

[farming101]

I agree.
Aug over Sept premium was gone by about Aug 11. Right now Oct del is at a 38 cent discount to Dec/Jan

[Kinger]

Yeah, if you had to make a sale today i'd say Dec is your best bet.

Anywhere from $0.20-$0.30 spread between the months.

Winter weights. Likely have to push some snow.

Not that much spread between Dec and Jan. $0.02-$0.05. Most guys use $0.10/bu per month in total storage costs.

Most outfits are reaching for GPOs or doing premiums to a $22-$20/mt basis as well.

My guess is likely flat to slightly bullish for the next few weeks. Or I could be wrong. 50/50.

[wmoebis]

Yeah, if you had to make a sale today i'd say Dec is your best bet.

Anywhere from $0.20-$0.30 spread between the months.

Winter weights. Likely have to push some snow.

Not that much spread between Dec and Jan. $0.02-$0.05. Most guys use $0.10/bu per month in total storage costs.

Most outfits are reaching for GPOs or doing premiums to a $22-$20/mt basis as well.

My guess is likely flat to slightly bullish for the next few weeks. Or I could be wrong. 50/50.

Think your forgetting 3 month delivery tolerance built in Jan del would/could mmake it end of March. Road bans!