Stats Can Production

[Agvocate]

The model based analysis appears much more in-line with where the crop estimates actually are. The higher than expected yields should continue to see the final number move higher.

Canola 19.7
All Wheat 27.1
Durum 4.3
Spring 20.0
Oats 3.8
Barley 7.3

[SASKFARMER3]

Well well well the bill Shit continues canola will never in a million years be at 20 mt it's really 16.9 no more or less

[Agvocate]

How is 16.9 compiled? I went back to the last 8 years of data and in all but one year both the Aug and Sep production estimates have been below the final production number. The final production for 2016 was just moved higher in the last report to justify crush and exports or we would have had a negative balance. Only year final production was lower was 12/13.

[Cattleman]

SF3, you have also said there were complete crop disasters that turned into record production years. This year we had an above average canola crop with surprisingly little rain. Wouldn't it be better to face reality?

[bigzee]

More and more should come on here and post their big yields ..... FN ridiculous!!
Hurry and sell give it away for nothing.
Who in their right mind actually gives Stats Can their numbers? For those of us that had minimal rain and now likely terrible prices going forward will make the next yr interesting.
The trade and grain companies said it was a whopper of a crop, guess Stats Can bought what they were selling.

[farming101]

Record acres. Up by over 10%. That's the story, not so much the yield per acre

[Cattleman]

I never said it was a monster crop. The crop is generally yielding better than expected seems to be a common theme. Is it a productive marketing strategy to deny that? Never said to fire sale your grain either.

Funny this is a marketing thread but no body talks about marketing. Just complaining. Anybody buy some cheap 75 cent dollar call options this spring? Sure helps the net price received if you had done some actual risk management. I wish I had done more, and am upset at myself for not being more disciplined with that. Rather look at what i could do better in my operations instead of just pointing fingers at everyone else.

Anyway, just keep lying to stats Can so you can bitch about their numbers.

[Agvocate]

The stats can numbers are model based. They take in Vegetation indexes, surveys, and climate. It's not just grower survey as it was in the past.

www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=5225

You can read it in detail on the website. You can also go back and see what was exported out of Canada for each commodity for each crop year. If you add the COPA crush numbers you have the actual usage and at times they need to adjust production up to justify how much was used.

https://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/ecgwf-egcfb/ecgm-megc-eng.htm

Prefer on our farm to use stats and trends that can be verified vs just assuming everyone doesn't have a clue and make marketing decisions from there. Anyway hopefully the links are helpful and when we roll around to this time next year and look back at the usage we will realize that 16.9 was a statistical impossibility.

[foragefarmer]

Bigzee


"More and more should come on here and post their big yields ..... FN ridiculous!! '

No different then posting pictures of all your new equipment swathing and harvesting good looking crops that were suppose to have been suffering from drought!

Like they say a picture is worth a 1000 words!!

[bigzee]

Bigzee


"More and more should come on here and post their big yields ..... FN ridiculous!! '

No different then posting pictures of all your new equipment swathing and harvesting good looking crops that were suppose to have been suffering from drought!

Like they say a picture is worth a 1000 words!!

100% agree

[furrowtickler]

Canola will shake out around the 18.5 number I think .
There is frost damage in canola just swathed or not even swathed yet in a big area west and north of here.
Yields coming out of the wet areas from summer are good but not as huge as first thought . Many have said on here from experience that canola seeded into mud does not perform all that great.
Some surprises in drier areas but also just as many disappointments.
The heat did take a toll and so did bugs in all areas. I will be surprised if the final number is over 19 but time will tell .
It will be over 16.9 , if and that's if all this crop comes off .
There is a huge area of canola not in the bin yet . Again time will tell. The market was blessed with a great two weeks in November last year to keep stocks in check. Anything can happen yet , they should never count this crop till it's in the bin. It's still only a numbers game , but it sure keeps a lid on prices by predicting big numbers that may or may not be there at the end of the day.

[nicolaas]

I see monster canola crops. we will see what the -4 deg last week did

[ajl]

I sure hope those numbers are not accurate. There are a lot of unseeded acres in Northern Alberta. If all those acres go back into production in 18, the surplus grain will be everywhere.

[Agvocate]

Growing a large crop in Canada shouldn't be a concern. In fact that is what every grower strives to do year after year. There is the demand for a 20 million tone crop. Canada exported 10.878 million MT of seed and crushed 9.143 million MT. We used over 20 million tones before you get to Feed, Seed and Waste. Simply maintaining last years usage (20.021) we have a tighter carryout than the prior year.

[LEP]

My estimate mid summer was 18 to 18.5 I think. Taking into account higher seeded acres, I am leaning towards 18.5. I don't think 19.7 is possible.

Our yields were less than half of last year and are typical for the area. There are some whose yields are the same as last year, some are better than last year. I would say that those that are better than last year are alot smaller acres than those whose yields are worse than last year.

Just my opinion.