The drought is getting real

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The drought is getting real

Jul 4, 2017 | 13:49 61
Quote Originally Posted by hobbyfrmr View Post
Its farmer talk. Concerns for the weather/crop. There is always one guy in the bunch who goes straight to disaster talk. Drought of 88 was like this. 2002 we didnt harvest an acre. Baled it all for feed.
It draws out the angst and more "real time" condition descriptions from the other farmers. Its the oldest coffee shop play in the book!
Hobby. You have had rain in your parts havent you. I hear the crops in the area look quite good. I have changed lakes to hang out at this summer so i havent been by your farm. Reply With Quote
Jul 4, 2017 | 14:27 62 By the forcast for the next two weeks even mother nature is telling us to stop spending money on this crop. Farmin is like fuckin a gorilla you keep on fuckin till the gorilla says stop. Reply With Quote
Jul 4, 2017 | 14:43 63
Quote Originally Posted by sofa.king View Post
By the forcast for the next two weeks even mother nature is telling us to stop spending money on this crop. Farmin is like fuckin a gorilla you keep on fuckin till the gorilla says stop.
That's so beautifully said. 🙂 Reply With Quote
Jul 4, 2017 | 14:53 64
Quote Originally Posted by grefer View Post
Hobby. You have had rain in your parts havent you. I hear the crops in the area look quite good. I have changed lakes to hang out at this summer so i havent been by your farm.
We had one big rain event 1-7/8 inch. It crusted over emerging crops and exploded weeds on the balance of acres. Toughest spring I have had in a decade. Reseeding, killing crops with rodweeder! Half this farm is a train wreck in slow motion. The other half of the farm is like my farmhand says.." pretty good ....for organic...".
Soon the flowers will show and the questions will start.
What are you trying to grow there?
You think thats going to yeild?
Whats that worth?

Then I say, its getting dry. Remember in 2002? We never harvested a bushel, baled it all!! Not this year SCIC is going to force you to combine it.....

I dont have an eye for crops. I plant it and harvest it . I dont look at the weather forecast because it would make me so upset I would be in the loony bin. I have a bunch of shrapnel that needs repairs and "should" be ready for harvest. I do plan to put in a few days of recreation time with the children.
This all goes away with a rain. If it doesnt rain then I will be forced to talk like those guys on Letterkenny "figure it ooot!! "
My conventional neighbor always paid top dollar for land, eventually had all new machinery. His motto was "don't worry about the money you borrowed, let the loan manager worry about it"
Last edited by hobbyfrmr; Jul 4, 2017 at 15:22.
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SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jul 4, 2017 | 18:00 65 For us this year reminds me of 2013 we were missing a few key rains then once it started what a shit show but this year seems really funny with day in day out wind. 2002 we froze in a month from now not a fun year. Reply With Quote
Jul 5, 2017 | 05:41 66 With the land so dry, it is quite likely we will see frosts in august this year. Reply With Quote
Jul 5, 2017 | 08:45 67 Check out StormVista model, "Ridge" and "Dome".

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/th...05041#M6105041

If that holds true, we'll see some real fireworks in the month of July, it'll make the 1st and the 4th seem like a paupers show.
Last edited by danny W1M; Jul 5, 2017 at 08:47.
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Jul 5, 2017 | 11:49 68 Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for Regina area today. I don't see anything brewing yet but it is only noon. Hope some boomers bring a downpour. Go boomers! Reply With Quote
Jul 5, 2017 | 15:19 69 US Accuweather shows storm clouds developing down south. Hope severe is 3 inches. Reply With Quote
Jul 5, 2017 | 15:46 70 Just over 2" here all spring, so I would call it a drought here as well. I know that's more than have had but it's spooky.

If you're a commodity trader (speculating) reading this, a short position would be very perilous. Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jul 5, 2017 | 16:40 71 There is a considerable stretch of my part of the world that if rain came SOON could still do quite well... If this weather pattern holds for more than a couple days it is going to start burning bushels though. Market would seem to be taking a breather.

The thing that strikes me about the current market situation is the strength of the near term contract. Would seem to indicate to me that there was/is considerable open capacity to increase current inventory for future use. I could be wrong, but it would seem that a lot of high priced traders and the buyers they work for thought low prices were here to stay so why run excess inventory, especially if there was thought to be a "burdensome" supply situation, with consistent downward pressure.

For those that didn't take advantage of the low prices to stock their silos I really have no sympathy. Reply With Quote
Jul 5, 2017 | 18:06 72
Quote Originally Posted by helmsdale View Post
There is a considerable stretch of my part of the world that if rain came SOON could still do quite well... If this weather pattern holds for more than a couple days it is going to start burning bushels though. Market would seem to be taking a breather.

The thing that strikes me about the current market situation is the strength of the near term contract. Would seem to indicate to me that there was/is considerable open capacity to increase current inventory for future use. I could be wrong, but it would seem that a lot of high priced traders and the buyers they work for thought low prices were here to stay so why run excess inventory, especially if there was thought to be a "burdensome" supply situation, with consistent downward pressure.

For those that didn't take advantage of the low prices to stock their silos I really have no sympathy.
"LIKE" Reply With Quote
Jul 9, 2017 | 07:39 73 25% of Any potential yield has been burnt off the top already . Not just my local area. My guess is about 40% of western Canada .
Some area will be more , some less .
It will be much high than that in 2 weeks for any areas dry already who may not get rain in the next 3 days . Reply With Quote
Jul 9, 2017 | 10:46 74 Too early yet to call the crop size.

Which crops are better, the early seeded or late seeded, also too early to call. But I will, early crops best, depends when and how much the next rain event is.
Last edited by Rareearth; Jul 9, 2017 at 10:47. Reason: Spelling
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Jul 9, 2017 | 16:46 75 Mower conditioners starting fires regularly. That's a bad sign. Reply With Quote
Jul 9, 2017 | 18:10 76 Going on for twenty seven years since last multi year prairie drought.
We may be better equipped with farming practices and technology to withstand drought but nothing to say next drought will not be longer and more severe.
Who would have thought wet years would have lasted as long as they did?
Have not given up on be prepared policy. Reply With Quote
Jul 9, 2017 | 19:55 77 What can we do to prepare for a repeat of the 80's. Every soil type is different, but for sure, leaving a tall strip of straw to catch snow. No fall tillage in gumbo, in fact no black dirt at all to blow. What can you add? Reply With Quote
Jul 9, 2017 | 21:59 78
Quote Originally Posted by sumdumguy View Post
What can we do to prepare for a repeat of the 80's. Every soil type is different, but for sure, leaving a tall strip of straw to catch snow. No fall tillage in gumbo, in fact no black dirt at all to blow. What can you add?
Hhmmm..the 80s...stock up on pesticide !! Reply With Quote
Jul 9, 2017 | 22:22 79
Quote Originally Posted by Ache4Acres View Post
Hhmmm..the 80s...stock up on pesticide !!
In 88 there was half the average rainfall i think we are on track for about a quarter of normal rainfal. Arguably shaping up to be the driest year on record in our area. Maybe that will all change tomorrow but no hail please. Reply With Quote
Jul 9, 2017 | 22:49 80 We returned from our road trip to Great Falls Montana. Its very evident that the Bow and Milk River sustain life in the sandy desert, but basically irrigating hay. Lentil fields start at Culbertson. We didn't see any Canola until we crossed the border into Sask. nor did we see a stellar stand anywhere but did see many fields that were capoot. It was 40 degrees on the way back in Montana. Every irrigation pivot was pumping. A lot of the winter wheet has been combined and the spring cereals are pathetic. One large elevator had a tarped pile of wheat on the ground tarped. Lentil except for one big field were about four inches high, kinda ble fuzzy with about 4 viable single pods.

The highlight of the trip was a stop in Havre were the Versatile dealer must have loved Big Buds, Steigers, Wagners and an assortment of old and new seeders, ever see a 'Pillar? The best stand of lentils ( just outside of Glasgow) that we saw was seeded into pure gravel by a JD 1850 disc drill with 8 inch spacing and a special-made notched steel closing wheel.

It is much cooler on this side of the border.

Next weekend we are Kindersley/Rosetown bound. Reply With Quote
Jul 9, 2017 | 22:55 81 Looking at tonight's satellite, that big blob pushing down from the north is not letting the Idaho Lows up. Buzz off, must be the Ruskies! Reply With Quote
Jul 10, 2017 | 08:25 82 Lesson learned from dry years is importance of control of weeds and volunteer crop growth before seeding.
See some of worst emergence fields is ones seeded late and not sprayed until just before. May also have suffered from poor seed and fertilizer separation. Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jul 10, 2017 | 11:12 83 If the powers that be do not bless this stretch of real estate with a significant rain today or tomorrow, there is serious trouble on the horizon. Early seeded peas and oilseeds are likely OK, but need the heat to stay away so they can draw the subsoil moisture up quick enough to keep up to filling the pods. Later seeded is struggling to stay in bloom. Heat and wind are taking their toll, and most flowers are aborting. Early seeded wheat is flowering but will need a drink to put anything in the head, while later seeded stuff is just heading and taking on that lovely blue complexion. Another week of this and heat and wind will take a significant toll. Reply With Quote
LEP
Jul 10, 2017 | 13:14 84 Sumdumguy, that dealer in Havre is where big buds were manufactured originally. He regularly takes in wore out big buds and completely rebuilds them updates the hydraulics and then paints them. I make it down every year or two and always stop in to see the what he has on the lot. Reply With Quote