The drought is getting real

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The drought is getting real

Jul 1, 2017 | 11:00 31 Lol. We have thought about the same thing with those 4 CJNB radio towers just west of me
Let's hope something changes , very very soon for some of us Reply With Quote
Jul 1, 2017 | 17:37 32 Sorry tweety , but you come across as continually knowing more than 99.% of the rest of us . You need to pull your head out of your ass .... Happy Canada Day BYW.
70% of the farmers I deal with have been to Ag school as well there guy , quit demeaning the rest of us !!
We all know fungicides hurt 80% more than they help . They only help retails .... Reply With Quote
Jul 2, 2017 | 06:07 33 It's going to be hell on the pastures and crops for the forecasted future with no break in the two week period if it maintains.
Worst possible timing on the flowering crops. Reply With Quote
Jul 2, 2017 | 10:08 34 The drought is here best thing to do is stop spending money on the crop. Go to the lake and drink beer with friends and neighbors for a couple weeks and don't look at the crops they will still be there when you get home. Like sf3 says it's just a crop. You win some you lose some. Reply With Quote
fjlip's Avatar Jul 2, 2017 | 11:00 35 Agree, sofa, gone away for 2 weeks, all will look better after a break away from farm.
Every time we left last year...rain, rain, rain!
Watched pot never boils, a watched cloud/radar never rains!
Canola north of Roblin looks great, about 75% of seeded area.
Last edited by fjlip; Jul 2, 2017 at 11:03.
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helmsdale's Avatar Jul 2, 2017 | 11:20 36 Env. Canada just issued a heat warning that encompasses our corner of the world...

"A very long period with maximum daily temperatures reaching near 29C or above and minimum overnight temperatures reaching near 14C or above is expected to begin today. This is forecasted to be an unusually long duration high temperature event and is currently expected to last for longer than a week."

Canola just coming into bloom, durum and spring wheat just heading, flax lentils and peas all flowering. Should be a burner! A bushel burner that is...

Long range models look terrible. High 80s till mid week, then mid to high 90s late in the week and possibly 100+ through the weekend, then back to mid 90s through till the beginning of 2nd week of july. As far as i'm concerned, if you're on the drier side, you can weather mid 80s for quite a while, if you're on the wet side, you can weather mid 90's for possibly a week, and no matter what the moisture situation, 100-110 for any sustained period of time is impossible. Reply With Quote
Jul 2, 2017 | 11:51 37 Two things have changed on our farm since dry years of 1961 and eighties.
Out of cattle and into direct seeding.
Probably worst concerns were feed and pasture shortage and losing moisture when snow blew off stubble fields.
Not looking forward to heat and drought but interested in outcome, not as if we have not been there. Reply With Quote
Jul 2, 2017 | 15:13 38 Going to be a lotta sour faces and bored grain cart operators come harvest time in our area. I don't think reality completely sets in until the combines roll and the hoppers never seem to fill.
Last edited by biglentil; Jul 2, 2017 at 15:26.
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Jul 2, 2017 | 18:04 39 I think we will hang in there not too bad for the week ahead but next Saturday will be the turning point with no change in the forecast. Warm nights and hot days with no easy moisture left will ruin prospects quickly. Below to much below average for all crops except canola is looking likely.
I haven't seen 100% agreement among forecasts for quite a while but this 10 day to 2 week dry hot spell forecast seems to be unanimous. Reply With Quote
helmsdale's Avatar Jul 2, 2017 | 18:58 40
Quote Originally Posted by farming101 View Post
I think we will hang in there not too bad for the week ahead but next Saturday will be the turning point with no change in the forecast. Warm nights and hot days with no easy moisture left will ruin prospects quickly. Below to much below average for all crops except canola is looking likely.
I haven't seen 100% agreement among forecasts for quite a while but this 10 day to 2 week dry hot spell forecast seems to be unanimous.
I haven't found any good ways to check the Euro model, but yes, the unanimity amongst the north american models is unnerving. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jul 2, 2017 | 19:16 41 Predicting rain is like predicting the lottery winner....where will it be and how much will you have to possibly share with other players.

That high pressure ridge thats building will likely only have one result!

Lets hope something evolves to break it down before too long. Or it spawns some thundershowers... but where is the moisture going to come from....you can't "irrigate" from a dry reservoir!!!!

Hang in there ladies and gentlemen this probably wont be pretty. Special shout out to the cattle producers in the dry areas! Reply With Quote
Jul 2, 2017 | 19:51 42 Today was a taste of what's to come yikes. Need a bigger cooler 6 beer won't make 9 holes in this heat. Reply With Quote
Jul 2, 2017 | 20:50 43 And then he was gone! You gonna pay the carbon tax wiseguy? Reply With Quote
Jul 2, 2017 | 21:34 44
Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
We all know fungicides hurt 80% more than they help . They only help retails ....
So which is it? Smart farmers spraying fungicides knowing it hurts almost twice as much as it helps, or they're not that smart considering most acres are sprayed with fungicide 'just in case' because they don't know the downside? Reply With Quote
SASKFARMER3's Avatar Jul 2, 2017 | 21:42 45 Lotto winner happening right now five miles north of our yard Lucky buggers. Reply With Quote
Jul 2, 2017 | 22:15 46 Smart farmers are using crop nutrition to prevent disease , not fungicides for the reason you just pointed out Reply With Quote
Jul 3, 2017 | 07:46 47 Crop nutrition creates disease which has been demonstrated repeatedly by the organic industry. Fungicides are not required without added nutrients. Fungicides attempt to fix the problems with a high yielding, lush crop.

However the continual use creates even more problems by eliminating beneficial fungus so only the strong nasty survive, like fusarium. Taking out all its competition allows it to survive and thrive.

Its a vicious frickin circle and we all do it. Smart or not. Reply With Quote
Jul 3, 2017 | 07:52 48 I would say your correct, but it's an overuse of N and not enough attention to the micros. A lot of these herbicides and pre burn chemistry are tying up essential micro's combined with higher loads of N that's creating this disease mess .
And I agree with you 100% on the fungicide thing. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jul 3, 2017 | 08:02 49 We as an industry have been applying pesticides for years and still haven't eradicated targeted weeds, insects and as of late, fungi. I will never argue that applications of fungicides are harder on certain populations of fungi than others.... because I simply don't know. In fact we all know how Mother Nature has evolved and gave us resistant weeds, are insects and fungi next to develop resistance? In keeping with the theme of this thread..... Mother Nature will be doing a fantastic job of "controlling" not "suppressing" disease this coming week(here anyway). Hard on the crop none-the-less but probably many times more the efficacy of what you put in the sprayer tank! Reply With Quote
Jul 3, 2017 | 09:08 50 Yup agree farma , the next 24 hrs here will tell the tale . If no rain and the heat / sun does crank up , not a drop 💧 of fungicide going on here. Reply With Quote
Jul 3, 2017 | 15:09 51 Jul 4 - Jul 17 Day [°C] Night [°C] POP Rain Snow Conditions
Tuesday, July 4 27 Feels like 27 16 20% - - Mainly sunny
Wednesday, July 5 29 Feels like 31 15 10% - - Sunny
Thursday, July 6 26 Feels like 28 15 10% - - Sunny
Friday, July 7 26 Feels like 27 17 10% - - Sunny
Saturday, July 8 32 Feels like 34 19 0% - - Sunny
Sunday, July 9 35 Feels like 37 19 10% - - Sunny
Monday, July 10 30 Feels like 32 18 20% - - A mix of sun and clouds
Tuesday, July 11 28 Feels like 31 16 10% - - Sunny
Wednesday, July 12 29 Feels like 32 17 10% - - Sunny
Thursday, July 13 28 Feels like 31 18 10% - - Sunny
Friday, July 14 28 Feels like 31 18 10% - - Sunny
Saturday, July 15 28 Feels like 31 17 10% 2-4 mm - Sunny
Sunday, July 16 27 Feels like 29 16 10% - - Mainly sunny
Monday, July 17 32 Feels like 35 15 10% - - Mainly sunny

If its dry going into this, its going to get pretty ugly. This is SF3's forecast. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jul 3, 2017 | 16:39 52 The "Senior" Crop Inspector took a spade out to the field and said he found moisture that stuck the soil together when squeezed in his hand....I think he dug two feet down. Just kidding, he's too old to dig that deep. Probably about the depth of the spade? I'll have to ask again. Those two inches of rain nearly three weeks ago gave us an early stay of execution, let's see if Mother Nature has any more compassion, or pity.....I'm not too proud to accept pity. Reply With Quote
Jul 3, 2017 | 17:50 53 The areas that started off wet and are dry now will be worse off, shallow roots and rock hard land. Ive had this in the past, ugly. Reply With Quote
Jul 4, 2017 | 04:47 54 Soil moisture will mean zero after 4-5 more days here Reply With Quote
Jul 4, 2017 | 08:18 55 Interesting number of views of this thread compared to responses.....someone is trying to find info on what's going on....


Anyone think our posts here are actually read or listened to?

100 to 1 views to posts.....interesting no?
Last edited by bucket; Jul 4, 2017 at 08:58.
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Jul 4, 2017 | 11:40 56
Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
Interesting number of views of this thread compared to responses.....someone is trying to find info on what's going on....


Anyone think our posts here are actually read or listened to?

100 to 1 views to posts.....interesting no?
A few comments. For me, this weather forecast is amazing and much needed. Last year I harvested 6.4 bushels of canola from too much rain. I would far rather harvest 6 bushels due to too dry. Also, for haying, this is an amazing forecast. Haying has been a disaster for the last decade. While I feel badly for guys in tough, let me say I have been there and that crop insurance is helpful. From what I hear of yields in the last several years many should have wicked good crop insurance coverage by now, no? Or was there some embellishment? Lol.

The key is too spend less than your coverage. But lately, with fancy iron, and spray, spray spray, fertilize for 60 bushel canola, because the weather has been great, I guess it could be rough.

But that is not for me to decide, it is for the farming community to decide. No one is forcing iron purchases, ridiculous land purchase prices, rents, or input purchases on us. We need to get a collective bloody grip on our expectations.

For this area, this is like a divine intervention, ten years in the making. I spent far less than my coverage again, and if I get droughted out, harvesting dry grain, without getting stuck multiple times a day, will be welcome, all else being equal.

We live in a typically dry region overall. We should therefore be planning accordingly, not as though we somehow deserve every year to be a bumper... maybe as sf3 says, we in the wet zones are back.

I guess I do not fully understand the anxiety out there. I have lived it for eleven years now, for the opposite miserable reasons. It is as big a deal as we make it, I guess? If I can survive, y'all will too! Keep your chins up. It is not the end of the world to have poor crops.

Best wishes to all of you. Reply With Quote
farmaholic's Avatar Jul 4, 2017 | 12:21 57 Welcome back Sheepwheat....always did enjoy your perspective and posts. Stay awhile. Reply With Quote
Jul 4, 2017 | 12:34 58 I've got to put on new guards and knive on the thirty foot swather, can't find the swath with the twenty footer. I hope the cows do good on snow balls Reply With Quote
Jul 4, 2017 | 12:35 59
Quote Originally Posted by Sheepwheat View Post
A few comments. For me, this weather forecast is amazing and much needed. Last year I harvested 6.4 bushels of canola from too much rain. I would far rather harvest 6 bushels due to too dry. Also, for haying, this is an amazing forecast. Haying has been a disaster for the last decade. While I feel badly for guys in tough, let me say I have been there and that crop insurance is helpful. From what I hear of yields in the last several years many should have wicked good crop insurance coverage by now, no? Or was there some embellishment? Lol.

The key is too spend less than your coverage. But lately, with fancy iron, and spray, spray spray, fertilize for 60 bushel canola, because the weather has been great, I guess it could be rough.

But that is not for me to decide, it is for the farming community to decide. No one is forcing iron purchases, ridiculous land purchase prices, rents, or input purchases on us. We need to get a collective bloody grip on our expectations.

For this area, this is like a divine intervention, ten years in the making. I spent far less than my coverage again, and if I get droughted out, harvesting dry grain, without getting stuck multiple times a day, will be welcome, all else being equal.

We live in a typically dry region overall. We should therefore be planning accordingly, not as though we somehow deserve every year to be a bumper... maybe as sf3 says, we in the wet zones are back.

I guess I do not fully understand the anxiety out there. I have lived it for eleven years now, for the opposite miserable reasons. It is as big a deal as we make it, I guess? If I can survive, y'all will too! Keep your chins up. It is not the end of the world to have poor crops.

Best wishes to all of you.
Its farmer talk. Concerns for the weather/crop. There is always one guy in the bunch who goes straight to disaster talk. Drought of 88 was like this. 2002 we didnt harvest an acre. Baled it all for feed.
It draws out the angst and more "real time" condition descriptions from the other farmers. Its the oldest coffee shop play in the book! Reply With Quote
Jul 4, 2017 | 13:18 60 Sheepwheat, it had to happen. This rain that flooded us out and is still here has to go back where it came from. The sky.

Wanted: homes for muskrats, beavers and all manner of water fowl.... Reply With Quote