Explosive Cattle Board! . . . .

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Explosive Cattle Board! . . . .

May 2, 2017 | 10:43 1 Amazing gains across live and feeder cattle. Live cattle have surged about $15/cwt over the past month. Feeder cattle have rocketed over $25/cwt since early April.

Wholesale beef prices racing as market-ready cattle short. PNW packers now sourcing cattle from Alberta lots. Consumers about to get a price shock at retail counter . . . . Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 11:27 2 Pretty much the opposite of what the experts predicted.Wall of cattle have mysteriously disappeared for the moment.Probably a good time to lock some feeders in eh Errol. Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 11:27 3 I called BS on the feeder market last Oct/Nov when the market prices collapsed as the fundamentals just didn't support such a collapse. The claims the US herd had rebounded in numbers from it's 1950s low point inside 2 years and that this oversupply was killing the market was just nonsense. Last fall/early winter prices were contrived, likely by the packers - these articles from the US share my view.

http://http://www.agriville.com/threads/32794-bluegrass-stockards

http://http://m.hpj.com/opinion/i-don-t-buy-it/article_598f4fd6-c313-11e6-92e6-d7a91bf0831c.html

Time for an investigation so we can prevent this kind of value theft from cattle producers in future. Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 11:39 4 Price are strong now but what about fall? Corn prices could change dynamics. Currency is a wildcard.
There are some good coverage levels on the WLPIP this spring (calves). We've been scale up buying policies as the market rises.

The wildcard is Trump. He's such a loose cannon, if he took aim at returning MCOOL, it wouldn't be good. Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 12:16 5 blackjack agree, this rally has created an excellent pricing opportunity to lock in excellent feeding profits. But also didn't see the recent powerhouse strength buoyed by surging wholesale beef prices stateside. Futures volatility may be extreme for a few more days. Strap-in . . . it may not be over yet. Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 18:04 6 balog last week said no cattle going out to grass as feedlots buying everything. Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 19:10 7 balog in s ab got to be the highmarket in western Canada and he is getting large offering to, at not mutch kept up cattle yard and buildings
feedlots who lockt in last fall loosing 150 to 200 dollar ahead with Cargil !
very nice market and free enterprice works , be ready for a downturn again .
sask is getting out off community pasture ! hope ab is doing same thing and lease land to Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 19:14 8 no sticker shock , people will just quit eating it . there's a tipping point with every commodity Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 20:35 9 new higher end burger joints popping up all over the place these days.Consumer demand still very strong. Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 21:11 10 The major change is the deal Trump signed with China.

Game changer. Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 21:13 11 http://www.beefmagazine.com/business/china-lift-13-year-beef-ban Reply With Quote
May 2, 2017 | 21:49 12 The ones not locked in 500 bucks for the good agboy .Good to see after 16s kicken Reply With Quote
May 3, 2017 | 06:53 13 westernvicki I think that's a "false cause". Nothing is moving to China, not going to any time soon, if ever. Same announcement was made last September and it didn't raise the market then.

No free enterprise in the beef sector ag-boy - at least beyond the farm gate. You don't get competition without less than 10 players in the packing sector and it's a long time since there has been that many. Canada has currently only 2.

The whole thing is increasingly rigged to keep cattle producers in shackles. Packers with the ability to manipulate the futures are controlling the market. Feedlots reported last fall that they couldn't access bank loans to buy calves because the packers weren't giving out spring contracts for fats. We see now that the fats that were contracted for spring have been captured at way under true market value. The market fundamentals didn't change last fall from the previous couple of years - record low cattle numbers, record high store beef price so there was no reason for a cattle price collapse. The livestock insurance program isn't really something to "protect" cattle producers prices or incomes - it's a way to set the market price for feeder cattle - again derived from the cattle futures which are being manipulated. Reply With Quote
May 3, 2017 | 06:56 14
Quote Originally Posted by westernvicki View Post
The major change is the deal Trump signed with China.

Game changer.
you are right westernvicki, the Trump deal appeared to be the original ignition for this cattle rally . . . . Reply With Quote
May 3, 2017 | 08:09 15 Poisoned or tainted beef from Brazil had nothing to do with it? Reply With Quote
May 3, 2017 | 08:26 16
Quote Originally Posted by bucket View Post
Poisoned or tainted beef from Brazil had nothing to do with it?
good point bucket . . . China quickly allowed Brazilian beef back in their country, but certainly China has a motive in keeping the Brazilian commodity pipeline open. Reply With Quote
May 3, 2017 | 13:08 17 The fact steer carcass weights in the US are 30 lbs below last year, and the US has been a next Exporter the last couple months, has resulted in Domestic beef supplies about flat year over year. Combine this with the fact that the number of cattle on feed 120 days + is way below a year ago has been very bullish in terms of market developments. Big driver has also been the drop in retail beef prices, and big jump in beef features has resulted in beef being pulled through the supply chain and getting the industry very current. Packers have sold ahead a lot of beef with orders to fill. The US only exports a little over 10% of its beef, I really don't think the China was a big deal. As pointed out, it was the repeat of an old announcement. I see most of the market shift as domestically driven, with help from the trade balance.

Market fundamentals are much healthier, and prices have jumped over 30%. Funny you talk of the markets being rigged Grassfarmer, after market fundamentals have changed dramatically and prices are up 30%! Why would packers let the feedlots make $600/head if markets are rigged?

Sorry, end of rant. Reply With Quote
May 3, 2017 | 15:25 18 Better that they give back $600 on a few than $600 on them all, so the market fixing has still worked for the packer. When prices topped out in 14/15 predictions were that they would remain high until 2020. Then mysteriously last summer/early fall the talk changed - all of the sudden US numbers had grown at a rate that wasn't possible given the speed cattle multiply at. On top of that weights had increased and demand slumped. We were warned that prices fall 16 would be bad but fall 17 would be worse. I called BS on it then and I'm calling BS on it now. There was futures manipulation and likely inventory misreporting used in a blatant attempt to collapse the live cattle market when the fundamentals didn't point to such a bleak outlook. Now the pretence has ended - inventory is still low in N. America as it was bound to be and the demand for beef is still there.
Don't get me wrong I'm not upset at the prices being back closer to where they should be - I'm upset that so many cattle producers were cheated out of income last fall. Luckily I had faith in my reading of the situation and sold nothing in the last quarter and after a long winter am selling now. Reply With Quote
Blaithin's Avatar May 3, 2017 | 20:17 19 Seems every other month America is having some issue killing hundreds or thousands of cattle.

The fires in Kansas and now the blizzard in Colorado. Beats me how they come up with the numbers that their herd is stable and growing.

Seen a prediction about a drought this year in July and August for AB and SK. Might be a time to take advantage of prices for grass cattle and slim down a bit in case grass becomes short. I just hate sending calves to feedlots :/ Reply With Quote
May 3, 2017 | 20:24 20 Thank you for the summary Cattleman.

Perhaps the deal with China is not a game changer today, however the growing from China, even if painstakingly slow, will change demand in the world. Even a small % is big.

Arnold has his match in Trump. Reply With Quote
May 3, 2017 | 20:42 21 One thing you have to remember guys are putting more weight on calves. A hundred plus lbs more on the average makes a big difference in supply. Though I do agree with Grass about the bs we were fed about burdensome supply. Packer manipulation? Don't know. Retail squeezing the chain? Always. Reply With Quote
May 4, 2017 | 08:26 22 U.S. cash cattle traded between $145 to $147/cwt yesterday afternoon. Astonishing! . . .

This does not feel like a 'Made in North America' rally. China beef buying demand from the U.S.?
Consumer will not tolerate these beef prices . . . . which is likely bullish for cash hogs.

Open interest suddenly dropped yesterday . . . a warning? Good grief, volatility extreme. Reply With Quote
May 4, 2017 | 08:55 23 Limit moves 6 sessions in the last 7? Wow. Reply With Quote
May 4, 2017 | 10:06 24 A word starting with "S" and ending with "T" comes to mind. Can anyone guess the word? Reply With Quote
May 4, 2017 | 10:42 25 Sweet? Reply With Quote
May 4, 2017 | 10:49 26 In this context?

Maybe "sweat".

or maybe "summit", as in peak?



Or "shaft"?



Oh, try this one - "sellout"?


Hopefully not "subtract"??



C'mon, the suspense is killing me. Reply With Quote
May 4, 2017 | 21:46 27 I am not saying this rally is going to continue. The extra weight on carcasses was a big driver down last fall, now with significant year over year decrease in weights it is a big markets benefit. Yes, world markets are critical and I do agree China will/is having a big impact. Just look at all the Aussie beef getting diverted there, which does help NA too. But China won't impact domestic prices massively in 5 months in my mind.

The market is the market, it just seems, if the market goes screaming up, all is well, but if they crash they are rigged against producers. Yes, we can't always explain the market, and some fluctuations are suspect, but they tend to average out. Maybe producers didn't get full price for their calves last fall, but the calves they sold for over $3/lb, was probably too high, as feedlots lost hundreds of dollars on them. Take the average price of calves over the last 2 years, and feedlot profit and losses over the last 2 years it has averaged out pretty good. Prices are still very strong in my books. I rather focus on my business understanding the market environment I operate in, rather than point fingers at everyone else when things don't go my way. Reply With Quote
May 4, 2017 | 23:25 28 I was kinda thinking "short" about Aug 15, but I wouldn't listen to a dumb guy when we've got wiseguys in the crowd. 🎯 Reply With Quote
May 5, 2017 | 07:17 29
Quote Originally Posted by Cattleman View Post
I am not saying this rally is going to continue. The extra weight on carcasses was a big driver down last fall, now with significant year over year decrease in weights it is a big markets benefit. Yes, world markets are critical and I do agree China will/is having a big impact. Just look at all the Aussie beef getting diverted there, which does help NA too. But China won't impact domestic prices massively in 5 months in my mind.

The market is the market, it just seems, if the market goes screaming up, all is well, but if they crash they are rigged against producers. Yes, we can't always explain the market, and some fluctuations are suspect, but they tend to average out. Maybe producers didn't get full price for their calves last fall, but the calves they sold for over $3/lb, was probably too high, as feedlots lost hundreds of dollars on them. Take the average price of calves over the last 2 years, and feedlot profit and losses over the last 2 years it has averaged out pretty good. Prices are still very strong in my books. I rather focus on my business understanding the market environment I operate in, rather than point fingers at everyone else when things don't go my way.
well said . . . . Reply With Quote
May 5, 2017 | 10:16 30 well somebody didn't like where the board was at. Does anybody else think our livestock insurance is a joke. Reply With Quote