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Kansas City Dec 02 Wheat;

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    Kansas City Dec 02 Wheat;

    Charlie;

    I see todays range Dec 02 on Kansas City was:

    417.75 settle
    13.75 from yesterday
    363.00 low trade of the day
    417.75 high trade of the day
    404.00 yesterdays settle

    What exactly is happening on these wheat markets to create a trading range of over 50cents/bu in one day?
    What

    #2
    Tom4cwb

    I will throw to the discussion group and see what others are hearing. Speculators fleeing like rats on a sinking ship? Funds who have the market on the run? Lack of confirmed demand as commercials sit on the side lines watching prices go down? Some indication of bottoming action?

    Comment


      #3
      TOM4CWB,

      The range wasn't quite $.50 only $.21, but still very volatile.

      Wheat (Kansas)
      Date:11/13/2002 O=397.000 H=420.000 L=396.000 C=417.750 V=8343

      Story on Kansas below:

      Chicago, Nov 13, 2002 (ODJ via COMTEX) -- -- Brazil Looks To Sign Wheat Contract With Russia -- Weekly Export Sales Delayed Until Friday

      (OsterDowJones) - U.S. nearby wheat futures came back with a vengeance Wednesday, with most contracts gaining back a large portion of Tuesday's sharp losses as well as erasing the damage done in Wednesday's opening weakness.

      Ideas were that the market was oversold following a recent technical spill and heavy fund-selling.

      Kansas City Board of Trade Dec gained 13 3/4 cents per bushel to end at $4.17 3/4, while Minneapolis Grain Exchange Dec climbed 7 1/2c to finish at $4.29. Both KCBT and MGE Dec fell more than 20c Tuesday.

      Allowing for a slight correction in the intermarket spreads, gains in Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures were more subdued. CBOT Dec ended up 6 1/2c Wednesday at $3.81 after dropping 9c Tuesday.

      While some traders said the rebound was long overdue as prices have tumbled over the last week, others noted that the market still lack a strong reason to continue Wednesday's advance.

      "Yeah we had some nice gains, but if you look at the charts we didn't go anywhere. We have yet to awake from the nightmare," said one CBOT bull.

      Along the same lines, other traders said the speculative trader is going to be reluctant to buy again after being hit hard by the recent slide without some evidence of a pick-up in demand, especially for the hard wheat markets.

      Comment


        #4
        Tom keep yours eyes open yet. Saw a story today that some of this years Hard Red Winter Wheat may actually be white wheat. I am waiting to see if any more news pops up about what percentage is the wrong kind.

        Comment


          #5
          From the USDA:

          Australia Forced to Cut Wheat Exports to Traditional Buyers

          Summary

          Very tight wheat supplies will force Australia to reallocate or cut shipments to several of its traditional customers. Historical data suggests that the Middle East and North Africa are likely to receive less Australian wheat with competing exporters benefitting from less competition.

          Australian Supplies and Exports Fall

          Australian wheat production is forecast at just 11 million tons because of severe drought. The drought has also meant less production of feed grains and poor pasture conditions, resulting in greater anticipated use of wheat in feed rations. The combination of lower production and higher domestic demand results in an export forecast of only 7 million tons, less than half of last year's level and the lowest in 24 years. Not since the drought-decimated crop of 1994/95 has production been forecast this low. Consequently, the Australian Wheat Board will be forced to ration supplies by shorting many of its traditional buyers.

          With Middle East and N. Africa Likely to Import Less

          Over the past three years, Australia's exports have been focused in Asia and the Middle East with the combination comprising 85 percent of total shipments. Top Asian markets have been Indonesia, Japan and South Korea while Iran and Iraq account for most of Middle Eastern imports. Looking back to 1994/95, when exports totaled just 7.8 million tons, gives an indication of some of the markets that the Board may select for less aggressive sales this year. In that year, exports to the Middle East wer dramatically cut while exports to East Asia were down only slightly in volume and comprised 70 percent of total sales. Iran, Iraq and Yemen all imported significantly less wheat. Early data for the current marketing year suggests that thismay be the case once again. For July through September, exports to East Asia were actually greater than during the same period last year, while those to the Middle East were down 30 percent. For the AWB, exporting less to Iran and Iraq may not be a problem as Iraq earlier held up shipments for quality reasons and Iran is expected to need only half of the wheat it imported last year.

          Comment


            #6
            Interesting to look at the chart. Drop prices by 75 cent/bu ($4.75 to $4.00) over 5 days only to bounce it back about 50 % of the loss over 3 days. Will be interesting if this market will rally to test some of the old highs in the short term. Bull market riding at its best.

            Some of you may be interested in how Dave Wong (Market Specialist, AAFRD, Grand Prairie) describes the ongoing battle between the canola bulls and bears. A unique insite into a daily fight.

            http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/economic/outlook/canola.html

            Comment

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