Wheat Highlight

[charliep]

Just a note the converted MGE price was $265.79/t today (Sept. 3/02). With the $24.72/t May basis, this would result in a port based price of $290.51/t or an Alberta based price of $6.80/bu (using about $42/t of CWB deductions). Your price would be $6.15/bu using the July basis ($2.31/t).

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

The Portand prices today tell even a bigger story:

1CWRS 13.5 is equal to a 1DNS 14% protien.

1DNS 14Px today is $5.60-5.65 up 16-19

With a CDN dollar at 1.57, that is $8.80/bu or $323/tCDN

If we take the $42/t off for deductions to get to West Coast Port Position, then we are at:

$323/t minus 42 = $281/t or $7.65/bu Alberta price.

And you know Charlie, at the 15bu/ac yield many farms will be lucky to produce, shouldn’t the price be $7.65 instead of the best the CWB could do which was May basis @ $6.80 let alone the $6.15 July basis price.

Any way you slice it, where does the dollar a bushel go Charlie?

Where is the CWB's single desk premium over US substandard wheat???????

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

I got my info from:

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/JO_GR110.txt

Source: USDA Market News Service, Portland, OR

Melissa Ney (503)326-2237

24 hour price information: (503)326-2022
www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/jo_gr110.txt

US 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat (with a minimum of 300 falling numbers and a maximum of one percent total damage)
12 pct. protein; mostly $5.47, ranging $5.36-5.53 up 16-22

13 pct. protein; mostly $5.55, ranging $5.48-5.59 up 16-21

14 pct. protein; mostly $5.63, ranging $5.60-5.65 up 16-19

15pct.protein; $5.64-5.69 up 16-19 ***

Reporter's offers on Tuesday night for October shipment F.O.B. ship in
dollars per bushel:

US 2 or btr Soft White Wheat $4.30 up 3

US 2 or btr Western White Wheat $4.32 up 3

US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, ord.% protein $5.17 up 9

US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, 11.7% protein $5.19 up 9

US 2 or btr Hard Red Winter Wheat, 13% protein $5.23 up 8

US 2 or btr Northern Spring Wheat, 13% protein $5.42 up 12

US 2 or btr Dk Northern Spr Wheat, 14% protein $5.47 up 10

US 2 or btr Northern Spring Wheat, 14.5% protein $5.50 up 10

US 2 Barley $2.70 unch
US 3 Yellow Corn $3.16 1/4 no comparison

Now Charlie,

Why can't we get market info like this from the Port of Vancouver B.C.?

[charliep]

Up, up and away.

Todays converted December MGE futures contract was $282.73/t (http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/090602-mhrs.html). This would provide someone who signed a May basis contract a local Alta. price of about $7.15 for 1CWRS 13.5 wheat.

Some who signed a CPS wheat basis contract ($1 under converted KCBT) in May would get about $6/bu. SWS ($19 over converted CBT) - $5.70/bu.

To quote an analyst friend - fast rising markets are like planes, we have never left one up there yet. Have a target price and pull the trigger on some when it is achieved.

In this vein, the CWB apparently offers a service where you can establish a price target and they will monitor/lock it in when achieved. See their web site.

http://www.cwb.ca/en/contracts/fixed_price/strike.jsp

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

Portland prices are astounding! USDA report the same reference as the last one:

"US 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat - (Exporter bids-falling numbers of 300 or better)
Ordinary protein mostly $5.51, ranging $5.47-5.53 up 19-20

10 pct. protein mostly $5.51, ranging $5.47-5.53 up 19-20

11 pct. protein $5.49-5.55 up 21-20

11.5 pct. protein mostly $5.54, ranging $5.49-5.57 up 19-20

12 pct. protein $5.49-5.57 up 19-20

13 pct. protein mostly $5.54, ranging $5.49-5.57 up 19-20

13 pct. protein - Milling Quality $5.49-5.57 up 19-20 **
Montana Origin
** Not well tested.

US 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat (with a minimum of 300 falling numbers and a
maximum of one percent total damage)

12 pct. protein mostly $5.81, ranging $5.71-5.85 up 24

13 pct. protein mostly $5.89, ranging $5.83-5.91 up 24

14 pct. protein First Half September mostly $5.96, ranging $5.95-5.97 up 24
Last Half September mostly $5.97, ranging $5.97-5.98 up 24-25

15 pct. protein $5.99-6.02 up 24-25."


Charlie this leaves the #1CWRS 13.5PX equivelent, DNS 14Px @ $5.97 * 1.56 = $9.31/bu or $342/t!!!

With a 42/t basis to Alberta... $300/t or $8.17/bu!!!!!!

We are still missing over a dollar a bushel Charlie....

[charliep]

Converted MGE futures today was $294/t. Add in a $25 basis and subtract $42 for CWB deductions provides a 1CWRS 13.5 Alberta based price of $277/t or $7.54/bu (if you had signed a May basis contract.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie;

Here are the AIMS Portland Prices;

US 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat (with a minimum of 300 falling numbers and a
maximum of one percent total damage)
12 pct. protein mostly $5.94, ranging $5.89-6.00 up 18-15
13 pct. protein mostly $6.02, ranging $6.01-6.08 up 18-17
14 pct. protein mostly $6.10, ranging $6.08-6.16 up 13-18
15 pct. protein mostly $6.14, ranging $6.12-6.20 up 13-18

So the #1DNS 14Px is $6.10 @ 1.56CDN exchange or $9.52/buCDN.

THat is $350/tCDN minus the $42/t Alberta basis or $308/t... $8.38/buCDN

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I see the OWPMB is offering $$7.57/bu cash and $7.18/bu minimum price today for hard red spring wheat of much lower quality than our #1CWRS 13.5

They are also offering $6.57/bu for cash August 2003 and $6.18/bu minimum price.

If I could do a minimum price contract, then a hedge is possible for the next 2003 crop... as if the price went up and I didn't have the wheat, then the contract would cover the difference.

If OWPMB can do these types of market options, why can't the CWB??????????