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    Agriculture and Agri Food Canada

    Charlie when does Agriculture and Agri Food Canada put out here December Supply Demand Report?

    #2
    There is no specific date for the next Ag. Can S & D report. Last year, their December S & D came out about a week after Stats Can released its November Crop Production Estimates in early December. I'd expect this year's Ag Can S & D around Dec 12 or 13.

    Comment


      #3
      I agree with Lee. I am working through a couple of other process with Agr. Canada/have seen early thoughts. Our group will also be doing some work over the next month (haven't put in 2002/03 yet except on a very general level).

      Rain - when you are working with clients, how do you inform them on fundamental market information? Technical analysis of charts? What should farmers be looking for in the coming year in their own analysis of markets/price risk management strategy?

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        #4
        I primarily use fundamental market information. As well as trying to use technical and charts. I would say that 3/4 of my information and advice is based on supply and demand. As a producers they should look both forward and back to anticipate what lies ahead.

        We are still unpriced on canola, are 2/3 priced on feed barley, and 1/3 priced on feed wheat.

        Quite a few producers priced 6.25 canola last spring, based on what canola was worth the year before with 2 MMT carryout. By March the forecast were 1MMT for the current year and the forecast where for lower this year. On the other hand we priced barley based on the the past years prices, fortunately they were minimum price contracts that so far have added $20.00 /MT at the time of delivery to what we priced.

        I feel that barley carryout this spring is going to be well over 2MMT based on corn and wheat being used. Intersting though corn is not cheap right now. The cost of corn has risen $15-$25/MT since about September. As well I am getting mixed signals about how much coverage endusers have for January forward.

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          #5
          The new Ag. Canada S & D reports were published on their web site on December 12. You can look at them at <http://www.agr.ca/policy/winn/biweekly/English/index2e.htm>.

          When you get there click on the articles under "Canada: Grains & Oilseeds Outlook" or "Canada: Special Crops Outlook".

          Comment


            #6
            Yes I saw there numbers was surprised to see the left domestic wheat use unchanged, also barley carryout stayed the same. An intersting note as well is wheat exports according to CGC is running ahead of last year at this time. All are aspects western producers should be keeping an eye on this winter. What are your thoughts.

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