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    Wheat

    So, given the 30%(ish) S/U in world wheat supplies, what is a decent price for HRS with decent Px?

    We are supposed to have a premium product used to blend with(carry) other lower quality wheats. Are we getting a big enough premium for it and should we continue to grow it(CWRS) to try and differentiate yourselves from the lower quality run of the mill wheat grown the world over.

    $7.00 bids for #1 CWRS 13.5 Px on the horizon for further out months with in the current crop year.

    What were you hoping for or expecting?

    #2
    $9.00

    Comment


      #3
      last June so could happen

      Comment


        #4
        30% S/U should keep somewhat of a lid on prices no? As rising tide raises all ships wouldn't a low tide strand all ships or a receding tide lower all ships.

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          #5
          I think hard red wheat is the best bet for me and try to grow quality. If you farm close to an ethanol plant or a feed market that likes cps then maybe try to grow bu.

          As for price I was at the Sask. wheat commission meeting in Tisdale yesterday and the speaker that talked about markets said that No 1 13.5 would be selling for about 8.20 right now if the railroads were able to move grain.
          Last edited by seldomseen; Mar 15, 2018, 08:15.

          Comment


            #6
            Anyone else want to take a stab at what they think wheat prices should be on the Prairies...

            Based on MGEX values
            Based on AAFC published port "asking" prices backed off to the Prairies with a fair basis deduction
            Based on US Pacific Northwest published prices
            Based on S/U and S&D
            Based on opinion, lol

            I think $8.20 could be bullishly optimistic, but what do I know.....

            Comment


              #7
              I think protein discounts will shrink heading into summer when inventory shrinks and railroads start moving grain.

              Comment


                #8
                Yes with the way the grain industry works here I think 8.20 is a bit bullish but i can always hope.

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by Oliver88 View Post
                  I think protein discounts will shrink heading into summer when inventory shrinks and railroads start moving grain.
                  O88, at one terminal I'm already seeing them shrink.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
                    O88, at one terminal I'm already seeing them shrink.
                    How much is discount at now?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Oliver88 View Post
                      How much is discount at now?
                      Where we're dealing now I believe its 4 cents per tenth up and down.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by farmaholic View Post
                        Where we're dealing now I believe its 4 cents per tenth up and down.
                        Almost back to normal than at that location for the deduction.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          5 up and 8 down here. Must be no shortage of low pro here

                          Ship count improving. More wheat came into elevators in week 31 then went out. That's got to change.
                          Are there good wheat sales on the books going forward? No one knows
                          8.20? Not unless it was super high protein. 13.5 should be around 7.20 if things get freed up, with local bids higher (7.50) based on spot needs/good movement, but it might take a while and by then all eyes will be on 2018 prospects

                          Something that could lend support to the whole grain complex is the corn story shaping up.
                          Argentina (17% of world exports by value in 2016) and Brazil (14%) may cut exports this year based on less than ideal conditions and seeding timing(second crop corn). US sales and exports hit marketing year highs in this weeks report. Latest WASDE has the US picking up Argentina's corn export cutbacks. Stay tuned

                          Comment


                            #14
                            World markets have pressured Kansas wheat lower in spite of the fact that there will no doubt be a further reduction in stocks of HRWW in the States this year.

                            Looks like there is not much hope of any near term improvement in HRS prices either. MWK18 may go under $6 and wallow around in the 5.95 - 6.10 area for most of April as long as a few showers come and go through the northern states during that time frame. MWN18 may stay above 6.15 but I doubt it

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Sell-off in wheat is just part of the broader sell-off across global commodity markets. From gold to crude oil to copper to the cattle board, prices are now showing instability. Central bankers continue to put their head in the sand with failing Keynesian economics.

                              Despite all the media hype of a sparkling U.S. economy, it just isn’t . . . GDP growth is now showing cracks after Trump tax cuts. There is another real chance of another U.S. gov’t shutdown very soon.

                              U.S. could well be in a recession before the year is out . . . . Canada has never really got out of recession that began in Jan, 2015. Gov’t deficit spending which ballooned our public deficit is now Canada’s economic engine . That sucks (IMO) . . . .

                              Realize, I’m rocking the boat, but commodities have serious head winds ahead. As a result, demand is king, not supply. It will be critical for all producers to have a marketing plan. The global market doesn’t care about our breakevens and what we think we need.

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