Tsunami of Black Sea Wheat

[MBgrower]

Tsunami of Black Sea Wheat


Good article on how W. Canada is losing the battle.


https://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/2018/02/13/a-tsunami-of-black-sea-wheat-is-flooding-global-markets-2/ https://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/2018/02/13/a-tsunami-of-black-sea-wheat-is-flooding-global-markets-2/

[Klause]

Sums up what I've been saying for months now.



Kazakstan just traded two ship loads of 13.0% red wheat.


They do that consistently and we won't be able to even get product to market anymore.

[Crestliner]

Geezes guys Relax!

1. Canada usually grows the best wheat quality in the World that buyers will pay a premium for all the time. So plant early, control disease and harvest early and grow good quality, store it, or pre price it. $7.00 new crop targets are being picked up. Can’t make money at that...you have a cost of production problem.

2. Black Sea wheat is predominately Ukrainian which most of that Country is contaminated with radioactive isotopes. Prypiat (Chernobyl) is 350 miles from Odessa, wanna eat that stuff? Do you think our customer does? Pretty good marketing reality to use to compete with. It will be another 80 years before that Country is clean.

3. Get a map out, look at what it takes to move product out of the Black Sea. It’s more complicated than The Great Lakes movement and you have to deal with Turkey to get down the Derinse, yep Istanbullshit, Turkey which is on the edge of blowing up any moment. Then down the Dardanelles and finally you are out in the Agean Sea....which is along ways away in the middle of nowhere from our top paying spring wheat clients in USA, Japan, Phillipines, Asia etc.

I am so over the winter speaking circuit of experts that are trying to dramatize a pretty boring wheat trade and get producers in a knot with half backed truths. The reality and logistics tell a different story, and while they may be able to get the odd cheap sale off, it doesn’t control the market.

4. Maybe we here in Canada should quit trying so hard to make ourselves uncompetitive with self imposed costs, like government carbon tax’s, rising land, rent, and machinery costs, that are dictated purely by actions of the farmer.

We have a lot of advantages and a wonderful producing country. Concentrate on controlling our costs and improving our existing infrastructure and we can complete with anyone.

And for Chrys sakes quit bitching about everything that’s wrong in Canada, and add some positive analysis and value to this forum.

[farmaholic]

Maybe he caught a bad case of farmaholicitis, get vaccinated, it won't cure it but will help with the symptoms!

[makar]

How and where can you get 7, 6.50 here with protein and cant grow protein here. So we are selling 1 rs in the feed market. If i knew i could get that would never seed canola.

[makar]

I am curious, how much grain moves east as to west coast, i think much less than when i was loading boxcars forty years ago.

[SASKFARMER3]

We sell awesome wheat great quality for feed price thank a gain company who skim the cream

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Crestliner, thanks for the dose of reality. Angryville is getting depressing this winter with the constant pessimism. I appreciate Klause,s contributions here normally, but if he is as pessimistic about our future as he is on here, I can't imagine why he would remain in this business.

Personally, with my costs under control, these prices are wildly profitable. Waiting patiently for all this pessimism to translate into cheap land. Somehow the reality is much different than the perception. I think things aren't near as bad as the coffee shop talk.

[SASKFARMER3]

Oh boo hoo Alberta Klause is showing the truth and the truth hurts we are getting replaced and unfortunately it will be to Late once guys like you figure it out. If I was younger I would sell out and leave Canada for Good. Farming in South America or Russia is the new frontier.

[bucket]

Until the crisis comes to canada again and they are forced to change the attitude of ag in this country...

Manage by crisis is not a solution.

People praise AGT's fat boy but everything he does is reliant on being on the government tit.

Capitalists much like socialists live on government funding.

It just depends on whether primary producers deserve the same attention.

And the fact russia is enacting a crow rate policy indicates they understand the value of primary producers to their coffers.

[Klause]

Except nothing Crestliner said has a basis in reality.


Hard to breathe optimistic when your main crops can't be sold (still sitting on October wheat and now the rest probably won't go until March/April) no new crop bids on peas.


Canada is the only country in the world with protein discounts on soy and peas.


Kazakhstan is a serious player in the pulse industry.


Russia - not the Ukraine - will itself export 45MMT of wheat this year. That is in addition to the Ukrainian 30MMT.


Russia has a vast rail network. They can export to Vietnam by freght train. Same for many middle eastern countries as well as Europe.

Maybe you need to look at the Hong show that is port of Vancouver. No storage constricted space and loading one ship at a time.

When an Argie farmer gets $6 for 11.5 pro wheat anytime he wants to sell and we get $4.75 (because that's what it is off of cash price) something is wrong.



Every one of our exporters is building out infrastructure improving genetics and most have far better climates.


We had quality control and superior systems but no more.


We have talks going on about how we don't need trains or pipelines or any infrastructure like that...

You know what other country did that since the 50s?

50 years of poverty, no hope no opportunity... But I guess one can live in la la Land and pretend all is good.



Obviously enough people do so look at land and equipment prices.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Oh boo hoo Alberta Klause is showing the truth and the truth hurts we are getting replaced and unfortunately it will be to Late once guys like you figure it out. If I was younger I would sell out and leave Canada for Good. Farming in South America or Russia is the new frontier.

On the surface I agree with you, but when I look for real world evidence, there is none. Record land prices, record rents, equipment and technology still selling, multinationals still investing in Canadian Ag. Most are still speaking with their wallets.

If not for our misguided socialist governments, we should have some of the lowest costs in the world. Land prices and rent will sort themselves out until we return to that position.

[Klause]

On the surface I agree with you, but when I look for real world evidence, there is none. Record land prices, record rents, equipment and technology still selling, multinationals still investing in Canadian Ag. Most are still speaking with their wallets.

If not for our misguided socialist governments, we should have some of the lowest costs in the world. Land prices and rent will sort themselves out until we return to that position.

Which multinationals would that be?

Brandt setting up shop in the US.
Spitz also
As is Macdon.

4 more Canadian oil companies moved into Nequen.
Suncor announced no further investment in Canada because of our hostile climate. Company I work for called us all into the conference room to tell us the same... Once this expansion is complete they are done.


Don't need to believe me.

Here's the western producer telling you about the Black Sea problem.

https://www.producer.com/2018/01/russias-wheat-dominance-set-to-get-bigger-in-the-future/ https://www.producer.com/2018/01/russias-wheat-dominance-set-to-get-bigger-in-the-future/

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Except nothing Crestliner said has a basis in reality.


Hard to breathe optimistic when your main crops can't be sold (still sitting on October wheat and now the rest probably won't go until March/April) no new crop bids on peas.


Canada is the only country in the world with protein discounts on soy and peas.


Kazakhstan is a serious player in the pulse industry.


Russia - not the Ukraine - will itself export 45MMT of wheat this year. That is in addition to the Ukrainian 30MMT.


Russia has a vast rail network. They can export to Vietnam by freght train. Same for many middle eastern countries as well as Europe.

Maybe you need to look at the Hong show that is port of Vancouver. No storage constricted space and loading one ship at a time.

When an Argie farmer gets $6 for 11.5 pro wheat anytime he wants to sell and we get $4.75 (because that's what it is off of cash price) something is wrong.



Every one of our exporters is building out infrastructure improving genetics and most have far better climates.


We had quality control and superior systems but no more.


We have talks going on about how we don't need trains or pipelines or any infrastructure like that...

You know what other country did that since the 50s?

50 years of poverty, no hope no opportunity... But I guess one can live in la la Land and pretend all is good.



Obviously enough people do so look at land and equipment prices.

Klause, you're words and actions are in conflict. It appears that you are heavily investing in Canadian farmland, modern equipment and the latest technology.

[Klause]

Then there's the fact that New ag graduates can't find. Work... All the majors have hiring freezes on...




You're right land prices and rent keep going higher... They always do right before a bubble bursts.