posted Jul 21, 2012 0:13
I dunno, but if corn hits 10 bucks I figure Obama will step in and scale back the mandate. Maybe it won't matter as every ethanol plant in the U.S. will be shut down.
Any farmer that thinks $9 corn is good for his business hasn't seen anything yet. I am going to book all my fertilizer by next week becuase I see $1/lbs. nitrogen as just a warm up. My costs could increase by $100.00 per acre next year, a combination of rent and fertilizer-seed.
Can we really be in for a perminent price reset ony 4 years after getting the last one? Let's see: Black Sea drought, S.A. drought, U.S. drought. Hmmn? What if crops are all just average around the world next year? We are being set up for really bad decision-making on the farm. The go-go 70's really killed us in the '80's. Well, here we go-go again.
posted Jul 21, 2012 4:49
If we do get good production then the air
will come out of the balloon fast. We
went from $8 durum from the 08 crop to $4
durum in 09 with high costs. I see much
the same happening this time around.
posted Jul 21, 2012 5:14
09 was an over correction as spec funds dried up after 08.
the world is a lot more crowded since the eightes surplus days.
in 73 the usa stopped soya exports to europe, that is why the EU started big subsidies for canola and grains.
personally i reckon the top is some way off.
posted Jul 21, 2012 8:45
marshall dillon: I expect you have read it pretty well!
They boys in the boardrooms of the ag input companies are probably drooling all over themselves thinking about how much they can put prices up!
posted Jul 21, 2012 9:44
You guys are correct. The input suppliers will
have their hand in your pocket very soon. They
will increase prices well before the grain rally
and well after they go down. Industry is ready
to profit heavily from this next rally.
posted Jul 21, 2012 15:35
Soooo dont any of you high production farmers think about cutting imputs a little and forcing an real or percieved shortage and therefore mabey mantaining higher prices?
That seems to work for the imput supliers. I know a 50 bu bly crop looks pretty puny but the bottom line may be just as good.
posted Jul 21, 2012 16:05
I have no problem supporting retailers in the US Midwest if it makes sense. I'm sure they will be hungry for some business if the locals get to rammy.
posted Jul 22, 2012 1:01
Good point bucket. But importers will import to order, just as last year when US farmers played chicken with the fertililzer boys, not ordering until the last minute. Farmers lost.
posted Jul 22, 2012 14:47
Most of the corn crop has accumulated the
applied fertilizer in the stalk already
so there will not be much left over even
if they did not harvest a single bushel.
So the N will have to do a full cycle
through organic matter before it is
available again. So I see demand
remaining fairly steady. We may see some
producers cut back due to cash flow
problems.
posted Jul 22, 2012 15:43
Marshall, Why is Cash Rent Going Up????? What is The Current Cash Rent in The Area???? What is The Most yous are Willing to Pay per Acre to Keep The Land?????
posted Jul 24, 2012 23:17
Well BTO, it's like this: land is 3000.00 per acre supposedly, and at 3% that's 90 bucks plus 7 for taxes and wha-la, you have $100/acre rent where it was 50 bucks last year. My buddy has been renting land for 36 years off the same family and it sold for $3200/acre and the chick in charge of renting it out for the mutual fund hit him up for a hun initially. Generally rents went up to 60 this year, and it will take 80 next year. Mine is for rent at $125 and I told a Hutterite boss that he would have to start growing corn to afford this new rent. Corn in Nov-Dec usually, mind you. "Irrational exuberance". I rest my case.
ps. not a F@@@ing hope in hell to pay for it and make money but for the love of farming itself, lol!
posted Jul 25, 2012 13:35
And thats fer God Damn Sure!!!!!!!!!! I find it hard to believe that Swamp Land 25 Miles West of Portage & Main is selling fer $3200 to Thee Acre. Who's Land???? What Mutual Fund Bought it????? Did yer Buddy Pay & Smile er is it still fer Rent?????
posted Jul 25, 2012 13:35
And thats fer God Damn Sure!!!!!!!!!! I find it hard to believe that Swamp Land 25 Miles West of Portage & Main is selling fer $3200 to Thee Acre. Who's Land???? What Mutual Fund Bought it????? Did yer Buddy Pay & Smile er is it still fer Rent?????
posted Jul 26, 2012 1:20
Marshall!!!!!!!!!! If I Guess who Yous are, You Tell Me What Mutual Fund Bought The Land, DEAL????? Ok Guessing........... NOW, Thats you on Page 12 in The July 19th, 2012 Issue of The Manitoba Cooperator. Am I right, er Am I Right????? God I'm GOOD at Guessing who Everyone is. What can I say, I like knowing Each and Every one of Yous on a First Name Basis Around Here!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.agcanada.com/issue/ - July 19th, 2012 Issue
posted Jul 21, 2012 0:13
posted Jul 21, 2012 16:05
posted Jul 22, 2012 15:43